Beijing is paving the path to disqualify all 70 LegCo councillors if 35 or more are Pro-Democrats

by Joshua Wong

Towards the end of the Easter holiday, the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office (HKMAO) of the State Council unexpectedly released a statement alleging the misconduct of LegCo councillors in public office. Frankly speaking, interference in LegCo’s internal functions by the political organs of the CCP is not news to Hong Kong in 2020. Even if it violates Article 22 of the Basic Law, it is ironically no longer news to a certain extent.

Throughout community discussions, people mainly focused on crimes of "misconduct in public office". But I think they missed a very important - or possibly the most important - point, which is found between the lines of the HKMAO's statement criticising LegCo councillors for violating their oath. It directly questions the councillors' legitimacy and is an obvious attempt to pave the way to their disqualification. This is the key!

I remember last year, during the extradition bill's quarrelsome twin committees fiasco*, the HKMAO had yet to make such accusations. Even when James To continued to host a committee meeting that the regime considered illegal, the act was not questioned as a violation of oath. It is obvious that the State Council chose to mention this not even half a year before the LegCo election to pave the way for forced intervention. They plan to disqualify councillors for not fulfilling their oath.

Should the pro-democracy camp manage to take more than half the seats in in this September's LegCo election, the pro-Beijing camp will claim that a "constitutional crisis" is triggered. Even though nothing explicit has been stated, I will make this tactical prediction - if the pro-democracy camp is able to take over half of the council seats, and gets to veto one bill after another while Beijing sits idly by, then I will definitely be glad to bear witness. It is obvious though based on events in the past four years, any hope that Beijing will follow the rules and allow the pro-democracy camp run LegCo properly will be dashed. We have to prepare for the worst. 

I believe a more likely scenario will be this - around the time of next year's budget release, Beijing will directly take control of the existing LegCo, disqualifying all 70 councillors. They may refer to the dissolution of the pro-democrat dominated LegCo in 1997 as an example. (That's right, LegCo had a pro-democrat majority during 1995-1997.) They can outright establish a "Provisional LegCo 2.0" and appoint councillors to hold meetings in Shenzhen. This does not require a wild imagination. Wilder things have happened in Hong Kong in the past year.

Thus, HKMAO's statement is a reminder for Hongkongers to be vigilant and prepared. Of course, we must strive to get more than half the seats. But even if we succeed in achieving this miracle, the regime may still use ever more creative ways - like oath violations - to oust councillors from LegCo. This is why I previously wrote "Fight at any cost internationally", linking the current existing LegCo's survival with the survival of Hong Kong's separate status as a tax haven. On the chessboard of international politics, only with a tight grasp of the regime's weaknesses do we stand a chance against Beijing. 

(*Editor's Note: The quarrelsome twin committees fiasco refers to the intense clashes of May 2019 when the pro-democracy and pro-establishment camps disagreed over the Extradition Bill.)

Source: https://www.facebook.com/joshuawongchifung/posts/2921556297936859