Beats For College Football Against The Spread
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Beats For College Football Against The Spread
10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread Week 1 Saturday
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By Pete Fiutak
September 3, 2022 1:04 am
By Pete Fiutak |
September 3, 2022 1:04 am CT
10 best predictions for the first big Saturday of college football. What games appear to be the best bets and best picks for Week 1’s Saturday games?
Seriously, what more could you have possibly wanted out of the first batch of games?
This is done before the Friday slate, so it all might change in a snap, but from Central Michigan’s monster cover comeback against Oklahoma State, a late stop by Nevada against New Mexico State, and thriller after thriller for the investment community, this has been a blast so far.
We’ve had a few laughs, enjoyed the fine banter, had a few drinks, and now it’s time to get serious. It’s the first big Saturday of the college football season, and with that are the 10 best picks against the spread – with a few more thrown into the mix for giggles.
There’s a theme for the first five picks – do we believe in this thing or not?
After all the blather and hype and talk this offseason, do I really believe in these teams, or not? You’ll see what I’m talking about starting with …
It’s not possible to go more unabashed fanboy than I did over USC these past seven months.
The unbelievable array of talent brought in by Lincoln Riley might have been the most underappreciated and underanalyzed big thing that happened this offseason – seriously, it’s as if no one quite realizes the all-star two-deep USC now has.
Do I believe in this USC thing or not? I’ve totally bought in, even though giving away 32.5 to a potted plant would scare me.
In the grand opening. I want the show, and I’m going to get the show.
LINE NC State -11.5
ATS PICK NC State
I’m very well aware that East Carolina is one of those programs that rises up at home once in a while and screws things up for the big name team.
QB Holton Ahlers has been around for forever, the Pirate team that went bowling last year is better this season, and …
I can’t very well go around screaming that Clemson is the star of the ACC – more on that in a moment – NC State is 2, and everyone else gets lumped together if I don’t go with the Pack -11.5 now.
If you really think this defense is that good, and you should, assume the season starts strong, even on the road, with a great performance. Speaking of which …
LINE Houston -4.5
ATS PICK Houston
Blah, blah, blah – Houston is going to go to the New Year’s Six, it might be this year’s Cincinnati, it’s going to blow up before going to the Big 12, and on and on and on.
I couldn’t have talked up Houston any more than I did this whole offseason.
UTSA is loaded with experience and talent – even without star RB Sincere McCormick – it’s a home game, and the place should have the energy to get both sides fired up.
But it”s only 4.5 points – I had better believe at that line.
Any Group of Five program that can even think about being this year’s big thing shouldn’t have a problem taking down the Roadrunners – as good as they are – by at least a touchdown without breathing hard.
LINE Ohio State -17
ATS PICK Notre Dame
Oh Notre Dame. That Little Engine That Could program travels to Columbus to collect its paycheck, catch a beating, and leave.
It’ll be a miracle if the team even gets off the bus, right?
No, I don’t deep down somewhere in my soul believe that the Irish will pull this off – not like I sort of do when it comes to the underdog with the next pick – but I do think it’s solid enough in all phases to hold up and make this a fight.
The Buckeyes will win, but I’m having a hard time fully believing it’ll be a total wipeout – the Irish lines are too good and the secondary too solid – until it happens.
As I’ve said time and again over these last few weeks, if Georgia comes out and rolls 44-2, I’ll eat it. Obviously, a rocking win by the defending national champs would hardly be shocking. But …
Do I believe that Oregon has the best linebacking corps in the country? It’s at least close.
Do I believe the lines are good enough to hold up, and Stetson Bennett has a three-interception game inside of him just waiting to come out? Yeah, and maybe.
Do I like that Oregon is a 17-point underdog, even though it might just be the best team in the Pac-12? Love it.
(BTW, I can’t fully dive in on this, but Oregon +625 on the money line in some places?! Just sayin’ … )
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September 7, 2022, 9:01 PM · 6 min read
Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson (1) had a strong season-opening win over Cincinnati last week in Fayetteville, Ark. (AP Photo/Michael Woods)
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Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, Matt Harmon, Liz Loza, Scott Pianowski
Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don, Matt Harmon, Liz Loza, Scott Pianowski
The return of college football was glorious. Week 1 was full of action from Thursday to Monday, but now it’s time to get settled into the rhythm of the months-long grind of the college football season.
Part of that is trying to gauge overreactions to Week 1 performances. It takes a few weeks for the markets to really reflect how good (or bad) some of these teams are, so leaning on offseason research is still a key to finding ways to be profitable.
And Week 1 was quite profitable for me as my picks went 7-2 . It won’t be that good every week, but it’s a great place to start the 2022 season. Let’s see what Week 2 has in store.
(Note: All times ET, odds from BetMGM)
Time: 7:30 p.m. (Fri) | TV: ESPN2 | Line: UCF -5.5 | Total: 61.5
Louisville had one of the most disappointing performances of Week 1, losing to Syracuse 31-7 as a 4.5-point road favorite. In the loss, Louisville had a turnover on downs at the goal line at the end of the first half and then two interceptions in the third quarter that were really deflating.
It was one of the worst games I can recall QB Malik Cunningham playing, but I expect him to bounce back on Friday night against UCF. I was also very encouraged by two transfers on Louisville’s offense — running back Tiyon Evans and receiver Tyler Hudson. Evans rushed for 89 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries while Hudson caught eight passes for 102 yards.
I still believe in Louisville’s offense, but the defense looked a lot like the one that struggled last fall. UCF, with John Rhys Plumlee now starting at quarterback, is going to play fast and put up a lot of points. I think the winner of this game scores at least 40, so give me the over.
Time: Noon | TV: FS1 | Line: NW -10 | Total: 58.5
Northwestern had a week off after its big win over Nebraska in Dublin while Duke opened up the year with a 30-0 win over Temple.
It was a good start for the Mike Elko era at Duke, but Temple might be one of the worst teams in the country. I don’t trust Duke to cover this number on the road, but I’m also not super into the idea of needing Northwestern to win by double digits. With that said, I’m looking at the total.
Offensively, Northwestern wants to lean on the run game with Evan Hull and Cam Porter and play ball control — especially at home. That’s long been Pat Fitzgerald’s general philosophy and that lends itself to an under.
In Northwestern’s last 30 games as a home favorite, the under is 23-5-2. And in Northwestern’s last 30 games as a double-digit favorite, the under is 19-9-1.
Time: Noon | TV: ESPN | Line: Arkansas -8.5 | Total: 53
Arkansas lost a few key players in the secondary to injury in its season-opening win over Cincinnati, but I’m not sure South Carolina has the offense to take advantage of it.
Spencer Rattler struggled in his Gamecocks debut, throwing two interceptions while under a lot of pressure from the Georgia State defense. Really, the South Carolina offense struggled as a whole, putting up 306 total yards. That included barely averaging three yards per attempt in the running game (sack-adjusted). Also, included in the team’s 35 points were two blocked-punt touchdowns and two field goals of 50-plus yards.
GSU is a good Sun Belt team, but Arkansas is a good SEC team. The Razorbacks should have a big day on defense and with K.J. Jefferson and Raheim Sanders on the ground offensively.
Time: 4 p.m. | TV: P12 | Line: Cal -13 | Total: 48.5
Cal was not impressive in its Week 1 win over UC Davis. The Aggies turned it over on downs in Cal territory twice in the first half (including once inside the 10), threw a pick-six early in the second half and threw another interception deep in Cal territory late in the third. Even with all of that happening, Cal only took a 27-13 lead into the fourth quarter.
Cal only out-gained UC Davis 415-387 and averaged just 4.3 yards per rush. UNLV has really struggled so far in Marcus Arroyo’s tenure, but the Rebels started to figure some things out late in 2021. Albeit it was against Idaho State, the Rebels still looked explosive when they jumped out to a 45-0 halftime lead in their opener. The combination of QB Doug Brumfield and WR Ricky White (a Michigan State transfer) is going to give Cal problems.
Under Justin Wilcox, Cal has been good for bettors in an underdog role but not as a favorite. Cal is 5-10-1 ATS as a home favorite and just 2-6 ATS as a double-digit favorite with Wilcox as head coach. UNLV can cover this number.
Time: 7:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN2 | Line: OSU -11.5 | Total: 57.5
Sure, Oklahoma State allowed 44 points to Central Michigan last week but the Cowboys had a 51-15 lead at one point in that game. I was expecting a drop-off from the Oklahoma State defense, but I don’t think giving up all of those garbage time points really means a whole lot. In fact, it could be a bit of a wake-up call entering Week 2.
What stuck out to me more from that game was Oklahoma State’s pace on offense. I’m still not a huge Spencer Sanders fan, but I think he can benefit from a spread-out, up-tempo style we’ve seen from Mike Gundy in years past.
If the Cowboys get out to another fast start against Arizona State, I don’t think ASU has the weapons to keep up. The Sun Devils don’t have much at receiver and want to lean on QB Emory Jones and RB Xazavian Valladay in the run game. That won’t work too well if they have to play from behind.
Time: 10:30 p.m. | TV: CBSSN | Line: OSU -1 | Total: 60.5
I don’t really envision a scenario in this game where both teams don’t score at least 30 points. Fresno State was content to go into cruise control in its Week 1 win over Cal Poly, but it still put up 549 yards in a 35-7 win. I expect Jake Haener and the Bulldogs to be much more aggressive in this one.
Oregon State, meanwhile, was impressive in a Week 1 win over Boise State. Boise State’s turnovers helped that cause, but it was still a strong performance from a Beavers program that has steadily improved under Jonathan Smith. OSU, though, has been much better at home in recent years, particularly on defense. During Smith’s tenure, the over is 14-6 in Oregon State’s road games. I’m expecting a lot of points.
Hartman was ruled out indefinitely on Aug. 10 due to a “non-football related medical condition.”
Ohio State and USC are trying to right the wrongs of the 2021 season, and there were encouraging sings for both teams on Saturday. Plus, a few others turned heads in Week 1.
Guy Morris coached both at Baylor and Kentucky following his 15-year playing career with the Eagles and Patriots.
Can the ACC go 2-0 against the SEC this week? Can Duke add to its winning streak against Northwestern? Will UNC’s defense look better, as it faces another Sun Belt opponent on the road? Our N&O sports staff picked seven games this week.
Texas needs big games from these defensive players against Alabama.
The Detroit Pistons unveiled a new "Statement Edition" uniform set on Wednesday, featuring a black base with red and blue stripes.
UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson led an offense in Week 1 that totaled 626 yards in a 45-17 win against Bowling Green. DTR completed 32-of-43 pass attempts for 298 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The fifth-year senior also carried the ball seven times for 87 yards and two rushing touchdowns, including a career-long 68-yard touchdown in the first quarter.
Ohio State's offense struggled against No. 5 Notre Dame, but the Buckeyes keep the top spot in Week 2 of the Big Ten Power Rankings.
DURHAM, N.C. (AP) Duke coach Mike Elko has been around college football long enough to know how the season's opening month can shape the perception of a league's strength. The league won - or survived, in some cases - its highest-profile nonconference matchups in Week 1, including Florida State's wild win against LSU. ''We have to win football games,'' said Elko, who left Texas A&M's staff to take over at Duke this fall.
For every touchdown scored during the 2022-23 Pac-12 football season, Pacific Premier Bank will be donating $100 to organizations focused on social justice as part of “Touchdowns for Equality.” In week one, $10,200 was raised.
HawgBeat's Mason Choate, Robert Stewart and Alex Trader talk about how the Hogs will fare without Slusher and Catalon.
Clemson pulled away and beat Georgia Tech 41-10, but a lot of the same issues that plagued the Tigers in 2021 were on display again in this one.
See how Arkansas and South Carolina's starters compare based on star rating coming out of high school.
Week 2 college football expert picks and predictions including Alabama at Texas, Iowa State at Iowa, and Kentucky at Florida
Big 12 schedule and previews for all of the Week 2 games of the 2022 season, highlighted by Alabama at Texas, Arizona State at Oklahoma State, and Baylor at BYU
With Week 1 of the college football season in the books, Zachary Krueger looks back at some of the performances from 2023 dynasty league prospects. (Kim Klement)
Colin Cowherd made a bold statement via Twitter regarding which teams are really on top.
Eighteen LIV golfers are in the field in addition to top players like Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm.
Nick Kyrgios had hinted that he might retire on the spot if he backed up a successful summer by winning the US Open.
Joe Burrow and LeBron James have expressed mutual admiration in the past, but Burrow says they haven't met.
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Here you will find a list of our best College Football bets of the day. This page will be updated several times over the weekend. All Best bets are Against the Spread or Totals Plays.
This page is divided into 3 simple sections.
Here you will find a list of our best College Football bets of the day for College Football Picks . This page will be updated several times over the weekend. All Best bets are Against the Spread or Totals Plays.
The second section lists two of our complimentary college football best bets matchup reports. We write these daily for most NCAA football games. These articles are more for the do-it-yourself types that want to really dig in and also have the time do the extensive research required each day.
The third section ties into the second section where our experts give advice on what to do with the information and how to spot a best bet in college football.
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