Balaji on X: "VOTE FOR BITCOIN The post below by @MacroScope17 is excellent. Let me extend his point one step further: the real election is BTC vs USD, the primaries have already started across the world, and every ballot counts. So make sure to vote early
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1769453767140008161
VOTE FOR BITCOIN The post below by is excellent. Let me extend his point one step further: the real election is BTC vs USD, the primaries have already started across the world, and every ballot counts. So make sure to vote early and often. Here's why this is more than a metaphor. 1) THEY CAN'T FAKE THE PRICE OF BITCOINFirst, the USD/BTC exchange rate is the one financial indicator that DC can’t fake. Remember the mortgage-backed securities that were supposedly rated AAA? And the devalued bonds that got magically revalued at 100 cents on the dollar by BTFP? All of those are stats within the Fed's video game, so they can be rewritten at will...but the Fed can't print more BTC. So they can't fake the Bitcoin price. 2) THEY CAN'T BLOCK THE EXIT TO BITCOIN
Since they can't fake the price of Bitcoin, the only thing the tradfi system could do is try to block the exit from dollars to Bitcoin. Which is why the SEC fought against ETF access for ten years. They finally lost on Aug 29, 2023. The three judges on the Grayscale case were Neomi Rao, Harry Edwards, and — yes — Sri Srinivasan (it's a common surname!). I'm not sure if even those august magistrates yet understand that their decision may end up being among the most important rulings in history. 3) THEY CAN'T STOP THE LEDGER OF BITCOIN
Wait — why could this random case actually be among the most important decisions of all time? Because unlike dollars in bank accounts, or stocks on brokerage accounts, or even real estate in blue states...Bitcoin exists on a ledger that the federal government does not control. So if more value is allowed to flow to that ledger, that's value that Keynesians can't freeze, seize, inflate, or confiscate. Not trivially, at least. Not without going house-to-house and beating it out of you, like their cousins the Communists did. So this court decision is important because it opened the floodgates, allowing value to flow towards the Bitcoin ledger — and away from DC's control. 4) THEY CAN'T STOP THE INCENTIVES OF BITCOIN
And every day that Bitcoin is available to Wall Street is a day that millions more gets invested in Bitcoin. Bitcoin's incentives were strong enough to recruit not just BlackRock, but Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, and a critical mass of major firms. It is literally the best-performing asset of all time, and one of the best of this year. So, not having it in your portfolio in Q1 2024 will make you a loser. It remains to be seen whether the Vanguard CEO was fired over his opposition to Bitcoin, but it is a distinct possibility. The incentive alignment is incredible: even the Fed can't pay everyone as much as Bitcoin can, because the more they print, the more BTC goes up. 5) THEY CAN'T STOP THE SIGNAL OF BITCOIN
So, every single day the regime is now bleeding support to Bitcoin. And so Bitcoin is rising. Its vertical rise signals that something is wrong in the legacy economy. It's a blazing fire alarm, an orange BitSignal glowing in the sky telling you that the smart money no longer has full faith and confidence in fiat. That's why this is the true election. Everyone gets a vote, worldwide. Whether they're a US citizen doesn't matter, because billions are under the thumb of the dollar. They know their vote counts because they can count how many BTC they got in their vote. They know Satoshi actually keeps his campaign promises, unlike the GOP or DNC. And they know the BTC price signal is a vote count no regime can easily rig. It's similar to the plebiscites at the end of the USSR. Back then, truly free speech and free elections finally allowed people to vote against the Communists. Now, truly free markets and free internet allow you to vote against the Keynesians. 6) THEY CAN'T DO QE IN THE PRESENCE OF BTC
The reason the smart money is moving to Bitcoin is that it suspects the money is gone, that the US cannot pay its debts in real terms, that the shell game is soon to stop, and that it’s time to get out before Powell’s “soft landing” crashes the plane. And in the presence of Bitcoin, if the Fed runs the same playbook they did in 2008, it'll have the opposite effect. Back then, everyone was in USD-linked assets because there was no alternative. So the cost of QE was spread across unsuspecting billions worldwide, and everyone was diluted to pay for DEI mortgages. Today, Bitcoin holders see it coming. So any big print like 2008 will boomerang on fiat holders. The more fiat you hold, the more of your net worth will be diluted away to pay the unpayable debts of this failed state. Everyone will be expropriated to the extent they trust the US government. 7) THEY MAY USE FORCE LOCALLY AGAINST BTC
Remember how the media flipped from attacking social media as unimportant to attacking social media because it was too important? That may come for Bitcoin. Because we already know that a president without Twitter isn't really president. Soon a government without Bitcoin won't really be a government. It'll be like an old government without gold; it won't be able to pay for things. And the thing is, lack of money is even more important than lack of media. So expect the delayed reaction to Bitcoin's rise to be...frantic. I wouldn't want to live in a blue state then, because the Keynesians will whip up hatred against Bitcoiners as their Communist predecessors did against kulaks. They'll call hodlers hoarders, they'll denounce them publicly, and things will get extremely nasty. Just visualize the same BLM/antifa/Hamas mobs that have been burning buildings and blocking roads for the better part of a decade, except this time with the support of blue-controlled police and military. If that sounds unrealistic, remember that's what literally hundreds of millions of people endured in the 20th century under communism. This time, however, the farthest left regime in the world is in DC — not overseas — and when it runs out of money, it will run after yours. So if you stay in a blue state, I hope you can shoot like Rittenhouse. Many millions of people have already moved from blue states to red states (or abroad) because of crimes, syringes, and feces — and it might be good to join them sooner rather than later. 8) THEY CAN'T USE FORCE GLOBALLY AGAINST BTC
Here's the good news. While Canada and much of Western Europe may end up following DC's lead, there will probably be enough purple states, red states, and foreign states — enough places run by genuine liberals, centrists, conservatives, and libertarians — that DC won't be able to seize all the BTC. This regime is losing to the *Houthis*, so it likely can't take everybody at once. 9) YES, THERE ARE MANY COUNTERARGUMENTS
I already hear you. There are many counterarguments to the scenario I just raised. - Isn't all the ETF Bitcoin custodial?
- Aren't all Bitcoin holders known to the state?
- Doesn't Bitcoin have limited onchain scalability?
- Isn't Bitcoin limited in terms of its privacy?
- Can't Big Tech surveil everyone?
- What about China, and AI, and so on? And so on and so forth. There are probably 20 more FAQs of this nature, and it's worth a follow-up post. But the short answer is: sure, there are many possible scenarios where the regime still wins, but as you think through the chess match it is also now possible that they lose. For example: will the regime have the cooperation of Wall Street in an attempted seizure? How many onchain transactions do you actually need to convey a global price signal? And won't there be many states like El Salvador and likely Texas/Florida/Hungary/etc that flip to Bitcoin? The fundamental question is whether the bad people behind the Fed can outsmart the good people in Bitcoin. And thus far, the Network has outpaced the State. 10) THIS IS THE REAL ELECTION
So: that's why BTC vs USD is the real election. It's more important than GOP vs DNC. It's an election where one candidate is *un*controlled opposition. It's an election where the whole world legitimately has the franchise, because the whole world is diluted by the dollar. It's an election where the world can deprecate the 20th century centralized state, and reverse a century of Keynesianism and Communism. Polling has begun.
Go vote early and often.
I wonder how many really understand the bitter opposition by policymakers to Bitcoin and especially an ETF. Gary Gensler doesn't really hate it because of investor protection (that's only a minor reason). Elizabeth Warren doesn't actually think its criminal use is significant.…Show more