BTC Price Forecast: Can Bitcoin Reclaim $100K as US Tariff Risks Mount?

Bitcoin Struggles to Break $100K Amid Market Uncertainty

On Saturday, February 22, bitcoin (BTC) rose 0.31%, partially reversing Friday’s 2.10% slide to close at $96,479. However, BTC failed to revisit the $100k level for the fifteenth consecutive session as investors weighed near-term demand trends.

Bybit Hack Adds to Crypto Market Caution

Friday’s Bybit hack left BTC in a tight range as investors considered the possible fallout from the hack alongside broader supply-demand trends. The security breach dampened risk appetite, contributing to Bitcoin’s struggle to gain upside momentum.

Crypto Market Steadies, But Fed Jitters Linger

BTC’s modest Saturday gain helped steady the broader crypto market, which rose by 1.01%, taking the total market cap to $3.14 trillion. However, geopolitical risk and uncertainty about the Fed rate path continued to temper BTC demand.

Trump’s ongoing tariff threats remain a crypto headwind. US tariffs could increase import duties, potentially fueling inflationary pressures. A spike in inflation may force the Federal Reserve to maintain a more hawkish stance, weighing on BTC demand.

Trump spooked global markets this week, threatening sweeping tariffs on autos, semiconductor chips, and pharmaceuticals. Significantly, these tariffs may trigger a full-blown US-China trade war, potentially impacting the global economy.

Since Trump’s initial threat of tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico, BTC has fallen from $105,993 to a February low of $91,274 before steadying.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Hit by Fed and Regulatory Uncertainty

Recent US tariff developments and Fed signals impacted the US BTC-spot ETF market, which logged outflows of $552.5 million in the week ending February 21 (previous week: -$580.2 million). According to Farside Investors, key flow data for the week ending February 21 included:

• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net outflows of $165.5 million, extending its outflow streak to 4-weeks.
• Bitwise BTC ETF (BITB) reported net outflows of $105.2 million.
• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) had net outflows of $22 million, its first weekly outflows since January 3.

Prolonged outflows may dampen BTC demand further as investors await fresh price catalysts.

BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers

BTC’s trajectory hinges on US tariff developments, Fed policy, US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR)-related news, and ETF flow trends.

• Bullish Scenario: US BTC-spot ETF inflows and progress toward a US SBR could mitigate US tariff risks and a hawkish Fed, driving BTC beyond the record high of $109,312.
• Bearish Scenario: Government resistance to a US SBR, tariff escalations, and a hawkish Fed could pull BTC toward $90k.

Dive deeper into the influence of macroeconomic data, US crypto policies, and BTC-spot ETF market flows on price action.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

Despite a choppy week, BTC is in a mixed trend, trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs sent bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

A breakout in BTC from the 50-day EMA could support a return to the crucial $100K level. If BTC reclaims the $100K level, the record high of $109,312 could become the next key resistance.

Conversely, if BTC breaks below $95K, the bears could target the $90,742 support level.

With a 45.70 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading, BTC may slide below the $90,742 support level before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).

Ethereum Analysis

ETH, still ranked the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, remains well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bearish price signals.

An ETH break above the $2,815 resistance level could bring the 50-day and 200-day EMAs into play. A breakout from the EMAs may signal a move toward the $3,287 resistance level.

Bybit hack-related news and ETH-spot ETF flow trends remain crucial for near-term price movements.

Conversely, a break below $2,500 could signal a potential fall toward the $2,308 support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 46.61 indicates ETH may fall to the $2,308 support level before entering oversold territory. (RSI below 30).

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin’s path to $110K remains uncertain as traders assess the impact of Fed policy, Trump’s tariffs, and ETF flows. Broader macroeconomic conditions and US crypto regulations will continue to influence market sentiment.