Auburn Vs Mississippi State Spread

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Auburn Vs Mississippi State Spread
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AUBURN, Ala. — Auburn and Mississippi State have met on the football field 87 times.
Matchup No. 88 will be far and away the biggest matchup in the series—and it's not even close.
While other top teams faltered on one of the craziest weekends in recent memory, Auburn and Mississippi State took care of business, and then some, at home. After the Bulldogs smacked previously undefeated Texas A&M in a 48-31 game that wasn't as close as the scoreline suggested, the Tigers blew out a young LSU team 41-7 for a memorable rivalry win on the Plains.
The results catapulted Auburn to No. 2 and Mississippi State to a best-ever ranking of No. 3, setting up the biggest home game in Bulldogs history and one of the biggest conference games in Tigers history.
Both teams have their offenses coming off of explosive performances and their defenses continuing to show vast improvement from last season. The winner will take the early lead in a crowded SEC West, so conference and national-title stakes will never have been higher in Starkville when the eyes of the college football world descend on Davis Wade Stadium this Saturday.
Before we break down this massive matchup, here are all the basics you need to know:
B/R's Michael Felder breaks down what he thinks will be the defining matchup of this week's game: Nick Marshall and the Auburn passing game vs. Mississippi State's pass defense.
Mississippi State has one of the most experienced defenses in the country, and its front seven has a legitimate claim to be the best. However, the Bulldogs secondary has fallen victim to passing attacks several times this season.
Although Texas A&M and LSU went to the air a lot against Mississippi State in comeback efforts, the pass defense has not necessarily been sparkling. Despite having the third-most interceptions in the country, the Bulldogs are No. 126 (third-worst) in overall pass defense, No. 110 in passes of 20 yards or more allowed and No. 91 in passing yards allowed in the first half of games.
Nick Marshall is coming off his most complete passing performance of the season, and junior receiver Sammie Coates is back to his old ways alongside all-around target D'haquille "Duke" Williams. Malzahn's increasingly balanced attack might benefit from leaning toward the passing game again—remember, Marshall threw for a career-high 339 yards against the Bulldogs last season.
Get Mississippi State to Third Downs
Auburn's offense has received a lot of attention for being one of the best nationally in converting third downs, but the defense has also done great work on those crucial downs so far this season.
For all of Mississippi State's offensive strengths—and there are many—the Bulldogs are 71st nationally in third-down conversions compared to Auburn's No. 13 ranking in stopping teams on third down. The Tigers just kept LSU from moving the chains a single time on third down, and they will be focused on keeping that momentum going against a team that is converting 40 percent of the time against SEC opponents.
"We're doing some things, getting more pressure on the quarterback, coverage, down and distance, awareness, playing the sticks better in zone coverage and taking away the routes that we need to take away and not jumping things we shouldn't," defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson said on his improved unit. "A lot of little things contributed to [holding LSU to 0-for-13 on third downs]."
To Mississippi State fans, Davis Wade Stadium needed more cowbell, and they got their wish over the offseason. The home of the Bulldogs was already a tough place to play because of the popular artificial noisemakers, and the brand-new expansions have amplified the noise factor for opposing teams.
But Auburn has an advantage heading into this matchup in that it is used to winning in both big games and hostile environments, something Mississippi State hasn't done consistently at this point.
The Bulldogs will get big offensive plays against Auburn, and there is a good chance the Tigers will turn the ball over one or two times away from home. Malzahn's team has shown it knows what to do in this situation, and it will need to avoid forcing the issue, even if it starts to trail among the cowbells.
In both of its surprisingly comfortable victories against SEC opponents, Mississippi State has been able to go on scoring runs and open up big halftime leads—17-3 against LSU and 28-10 against Texas A&M.
The closest game the Bulldogs have played this season surprisingly came against Conference USA foe UAB, who used a 17-point second quarter to keep things interesting away from home.
Auburn has been prone to slow offensive starts, but the script changed last Saturday with a 31-point first half against LSU. The Bulldogs will be looking to knock the Tigers back into that unfavorable rhythm and pump up the crowd even more with a sizable early lead.
Auburn did not have many negative plays against an LSU defense it dominated for most of the game, but the offense won't be able to boss around Mississippi State at the line of scrimmage.
"They're big, they're strong, they're physical," Auburn offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee said about the Bulldogs. "As a whole, I think they're a really good defense. They're by far the best defense we've faced yet. It's not even close."
Mississippi State is in the top 20 nationally in both sacks and tackles for loss, and that strong front seven will try to exploit an Auburn offensive line that is still going through some rotation because of injuries. The Bulldogs were one of the only teams to hold Tre Mason to fewer than 100 rushing yards last season and sack Nick Marshall on multiple occasions—a key to their defensive success will be their ability to repeat that in Starkville this weekend.
In big games like this one, special teams could play an important role in the final outcome. Mississippi State will want to limit an Auburn unit that has rattled off a few big plays this season.
Quan Bray didn't really get much of a chance at a big punt return against LSU, and the senior fell to No. 2 nationally behind Kansas State's Tyler Lockett for the national lead because of it.
But this Mississippi State squad has already allowed a couple of punt returns of 20-plus yards this season, and avoiding any punts toward Bray would be beneficial. That strategy didn't affect the final score of the LSU-Auburn game, but it could have an impact on this one.
With pass defense being Mississippi State's glaring statistical weakness at this point this season, look for Marshall to get more opportunities through the air than what we have seen in recent weeks.
Marshall will be glad to have Coates back to 100 percent, and Williams continues to prove that he is a matchup nightmare for any defense. If he can limit overthrows and miscommunications—the Bulldogs have still been able to generate a large amount of interceptions—then his performance could be the determining factor for Auburn on the road.
The senior quarterback has also rushed for at least 100 yards in three of his last four games, but Kansas State kept him from getting into the second level on the ground thanks to sound gap play and tackling. Mississippi State has only allowed two rushing touchdowns this season, so Marshall and the rest of the Auburn backfield will have their work cut out for them this Saturday.
Getting to star quarterback Dak Prescott and limiting running back Josh Robinson on the ground are two huge priorities for the Auburn defense.
Achieving those goals start up front for Auburn, and Adams has been a huge playmaker for a defense that continues to impress in all major statistical categories. The standout sophomore leads the team with five tackles for loss this season while showcasing fine awareness in creating and securing turnovers.
Mississippi State's spread attack relies on power, especially through Prescott, and Adams will have his hands full against an offensive line that has had some up-and-down performances so far this season. Senior center Dillon Day will return to the interior line for the Bulldogs this weekend after serving a one-game suspension for his stomping incidents against LSU.
Despite missing practices following a mild concussion and not getting the start against LSU, McKinzy led the team in tackles during the blowout of the Bayou Bengals.
McKinzy has consistently been one of Auburn's best defensive players this season, and the Tigers will need his leadership and skill set against a Mississippi State offense that is balanced, spread-out and explosive.
There shouldn't be any doubts about his health following his performance against LSU, so look for the junior to get most of the snaps against the Bulldogs in Starkville. McKinzy had one of his most quiet performances of the season against Mississippi State last year, and he will want to make more of an impact this time.
Prescott is simply playing as well as any player in college football right now, making him a Heisman candidate who would love to get a signature win on the biggest day in his program's history.
The junior from Louisiana has been compared to Cam Newton and Tim Tebow for his powerful running talents, but his passing has led the way in the Bulldogs' current winning streak. Prescott has thrown for more than 200 yards in his last six starts, with 16 touchdowns and only two interceptions during that span.
Auburn will have to focus on putting pressure on Prescott without letting him escape for long scrambles. The Tigers did well in stopping designed runs against Kansas State's Jake Waters, but they have had trouble letting quarterbacks tuck and go whenever the protection breaks down. Prescott is a player who will definitely make a team pay for losing its contain.
He might not have the name recognition of a Todd Gurley, a TJ Yeldon or even a Cameron Artis-Payne, but Robinson has quietly emerged as one of only four SEC running backs averaging more than 100 yards per game this season.
In his first season as the Bulldogs' leading running back, Robinson has proved to be a big-play running back in an offense that thrives on explosive plays. The junior is averaging 7.5 yards per carry and is tied for second in the conference with six rushing touchdowns in five games.
Auburn held Alex Collins, another leading running back in the conference, to a quiet 68-yard performance in the season opener. Holding Robinson to fewer than 100 yards or keeping him out of the end zone would be another massive performance for a defense that is quickly becoming one of the best in the country at stopping the run.
McKinney, a highly valued pro prospect at linebacker, continues to lead the way for Mississippi State's defense with team highs in tackles (36) and tackles for loss (six). The junior led the team in tackles last season, and he has made an impression on the Auburn coaching staff from its film review.
"I think he’s as good a linebacker as there is in our league, maybe in the whole country," Lashlee said.
At 6'5" and 245 pounds, McKinney is an ultra-athletic linebacker who has made a name for himself nationally by attacking the football and using his power to shut down opposing offenses in an instant. You won't miss the Mississippi native Saturday, as he will be a strong candidate for most tackles recorded in this SEC West showdown.
Head coach Dan Mullen on Auburn's offense, per AL.com's Mike Herndon :
They're going to run it like LSU, but they're going to spread out and tempo you like A&M. They have a quarterback that can beat you with his legs. Then as soon as you start jumping on his legs, they have freaky wide receivers that'll go beat you down the field. He'll hand it off to a back who can hit the home run at any time and they're an enormous offensive line. They're a very, very explosive offensive team and we're going to have to play really good defense and sound defense next week.
Offensive lineman Ben Beckwith on Auburn compared to Mississippi State's previous opponents, per Herndon:
We had LSU for our opener this year and it was about the same—they're both Tigers and they're both really good. It does help getting SEC games under your belt. But every week you're getting a good defensive line. It doesn't matter who you're playing. Every week, you've got to come out, put your hard hat on and go to work.
Offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee on playing in a hostile environment:
Noise is noise and when you go on the road in our league you’ve got to prepare to play without any verbal communication, whether it’s 100,000 fans or cowbells or both. That will be a big part of the game. I thought we handled a really loud environment at Kansas State well in that aspect. We’re going to have to do the same again. That’s part of the home field advantage. They’ve got the crowd on their side. Our guys have to be that much more focused.
Wide receiver Sammie Coates on last year's meeting:
It was a physical game. They came prepared, they came playing their butts off. They came to prove a point that they were going to beat us and we just had to fight our way to the end. It came down to the last play. And that's what we have to expect this game because they're going to come with it at home.
Cornerback Jonathon Mincy on facing Mississippi State's big receivers:
You just have to continue to fight throughout the whole play. Being aggressive is going to be a plus, but when they make a play, we have to continue to fight. It's going to be a competitive game.
Although Auburn has won 11 of the last 13 meetings with Mississippi State, most of their recent games have gone right down to the wire. This series has featured a last-minute passing touchdown (2013), a last-second goal-line stand (2011), a defensive slugfest (2010) and a dreadful 3-2 game (2008).
Now that both teams are holding down two of the nation's top three spots, you can expect some more drama.
I know I predicted a close game between LSU and Auburn, but there was always a slight chance Auburn could run away with it due to the youth and inexperience of the Bayou Bengals. This weekend, both teams are playing some of their best football at the moment and have experienced talent on both sides of the ball.
While the home-field advantage will be important for Mississippi State, I am going to give the edge to Auburn in this game because of its familiarity with big-time matchups under Malzahn. In even matchups like this one, go with the team that has shown it knows what to do in high-pressure situations.
The score will be the toughest aspect of this game to pick, as both sides are capable of lighting up the scoreboard or engaging in a defensive battle. I see both sides finding the end zone several times, even against tough defenses.
What are your keys and players to watch in this matchup? Let me hear them and give a final score prediction in the comment section below.
All quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All recruiting rankings and information courtesy of 247Sports . All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com .
Justin Ferguson is Bleacher Report's lead Auburn writer. Follow him on Twitter @JFergusonAU .

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