As Price Reaches Record Highs, is Bitcoin in a Capacity Crisis for bitcoin dice?
Bitcoin Crisis
Imagine you are slightly late for work, quickly getting a shower, brushing your teeth and all the rest, walking – in an almost running manner – to the tube station, to then find out there are 200,000 people waiting outside to get the train.
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What’s more, the train only handles 4,000 individuals and arrives every ten minutes, during which period new individuals arrive at a rate of 4 per second. Now, it’s ok, you’re busy, you can still be one of those 4,000 individuals and get to work if you pay a high enough fee.
So you check out the notice which says the current estimated fee is $1, but since others are seeing the same notice too and paying $1 too, the fee keeps going up every second, with these higher fees paid by the new individuals that come every second, pushing you down the queue.
Tough luck, you can’t make it to work today because your $1 bid is now as good as worthless to the super congested network. The next day you learn the lesson, so instead of bidding what the notice says, you bid 10% or 20% more, but you weren’t the only one who missed work yesterday, almost everyone else did too and they have this genius but obvious idea too, making you miss work again.
The next day you get angry and pay double the fee, but you’re not the only angry one. Now, sure, some in this lottery do get to make it to work, 4,000 every 10 minutes with 200,000 waiting, but a lot don’t, resulting in a bidding war which looks like below:
Bitcoin’s fees go vertical – source blockchain.info
As can be seen, bitcoin’s fees have gone vertical, which is bad, but if you know you’d get through for x dollars then at least you can evaluate the proposition. Instead, you’re not only paying high fees, but you don’t even know whether you will get the service you paid for because of simple logics.
Let’s take, for example, a statement by Luke Dashjr, a Blockstream “open hash contractor,” who suggested everyone pay a $5 fee to strat bitcoin dice and you’ll get through. If we analyze this a bit further, we can start by asking why people are not paying $5 and one good reason is because then everyone would start paying $5 meaning newcomers would outbid them by paying $5.01.
Sure, one or two guys might currently “cheat” and jump the queue by paying $5, but as long as it’s a very tiny minority the rest let it go. If instead, it went to a point where say 1,000 of the 4,000 are paying $5, the other 3,000 will probably quickly start paying $5.01.
This clearly shows ordering transactions by fee is an unworkable idea which is why Satoshi Nakamoto ordered transactions by first seen in the bitcoin clients he/she released, a rule largely enforced by the bitcoin network until full capacity was reached.
The Easy Attack
Still, even the above problems, as bad as they are, might be bearable for desperate bitcoiners, but let’s imagine I’m a wealthy company, say Vusa, or Rapp Labs, or a wealthy guy who just doesn’t like bitcoin.
Just to be very clear, no one is suggesting either of them has behaved in any nefarious way, but say I’m a competitor to bitcoin or recently attracting much hype and attention due to gaining crazy high market cap in just days. You know what I could do with just $2 million?
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