Article: The Story Behind Numbers
MMJ 20230405
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REALSPEAK : THE STORY BEHIND NUMBERS
BNM releases annual report yesterday.
Let's now look at the numbers in Realspeak.
1. GDP growth forecast is 4-5% vs 4.5% in retabled budget.
Realspeak: RM1.49 trillion of GDP goes to the personal sector which hardly contributes to economic output and employment. In housing which is about RM700 Billion much of the value goes to Developers profit and capital gain. Add RM44 Billion Banks' annual interest Profit, and RM56 Billion paid by govt in annual interest payment. That is RM1.5 trillion that did not go to companies and businesses that creates economic output and employment.
2. Unemployment rate is forecast at 3.5%, at the low of the range in retabled budget 3.5-3.7%.
Realspeak: even 100% employment in the nation does not mean people are earning a decent wage under current system. They are still struggling with low wages and high inflation and just accept whatever job to put food on table.
3. Inflation forecast is 2.8-3.8%, same as the retabled budget.
Realspeak: another misleading figure. That 3.8% inflation rate often quoted is year on year inflation. Why not abandon this method and calculate about inflation to base year? Ikan kembong is probably 380% , Cili 400%. If they wish to downplay inflation on current methods why not have different weights and/or different baskets? Food is more weighty for the poor.
Different inflation rate for B40 and T20 will arise with probably higher burden of inflation on the poor.
4. Exports growth is just a tiny 1.5% vs 1.6% mentioned in retabled budget.
5. Current account surplus is expected to be 2.5-3.5% vs 3% mentioned in retabled budget.
6. BNM assumes oil price to be USD80-90/b. This is higher than current market price.
7. BNM assumes CPO to be in the range of RM3800-4200, slightly higher than market price as well.
8. Malaysia embraces Basel III
Realspeak: DiMahsyar kita bersama mereka yg kita sukai. Bukan ini ukuran dan regulasi feveret Yahudi? Lembaga Pengarah asal Bank of International Settlements dimana BNM terima arahan dan panduan terdiri dari 2 bekas Governor Bank of Israel.
9. BNM opines that local banks have high total capital ratios of more than 18%, a lot higher than minimum requirements of 8%.
Realspeak : Tidak berfaedah kalu 65% pergi ke sektor peribadi dan hanya 16% pergi ke sektor IKS dengan akibat buruk terhadap inflasi, penciptaan pekerjaan dan keciputan penggajian.
10. BNM regards Malaysia banks are more conservative.
Realspeak : Apply Sovereign Money and the banks can even be Tories as far as we are concerned.
11. BNM said will respect hierarchy of capital, debt holders are always ahead of shareholders.
Realspeak : Mana ada debt holders in Islam selain Qardhul Hassan?
12. PIDM RM250k covers 96% of all depositors in Malaysia that is considered ideal by international standards.
Realspeak:
Another whitewash
13. On gap between 3MK and OPR. It reflects market expectations (OPR would be hiked further).
Realspeak : Kadar Riba Negara. An emasculated and ineffective economic tool and an icon of economy management that can hardly be said to be Islamic.
14. On FX reserves, BNM said stabilised gross reserves indicates total intervention capacity.
15. On build up of forward position, it is through domestic sourced funds. They help to buffer intervention capacity.
16. On onshore borrowing rates, BNM opines that they are not excessively high. BNM is not targeting any level but will monitor magnitude of movement. BNM may allow market to make full adjustments.
Realspeak : Ribaspeak.
Conclusion : We would not want to be the person or persons in Mahsyar defending this system.
If our dear PMX realises these; even before implementation, it would raise his Madanispeak many notches up.
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Dikemaskini [Updated]: Sam Ahmad 20230626