Alexander Zimovsky: Short updates on Trump/Iran

Short updates on Trump/Iran

The Ayatollahs exhale. But not deep.

The situation on February 7, 2026: diplomacy in Muscat (Oman) is still winning by "thunder and lightning". It looks like Rahbar, the other ulama, and the IRGC have gotten a break, but it's too early to relax.

The main thing is the facts:

The Omani breakthrough? Yesterday's talks between Araghchi and Trump's envoys were marked by "very good" results. Both sides took a break for consultations in the capitals. Trump is in his style: praises the process, but threatens "severe consequences" if there is no deal. Classic Art of the Deal.

Aircraft carriers on the raid. The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) irons the waters of the Arabian Sea. Routine F/A-18 flights are a clear signal: "We're here, we can see everything." The group has been in position since the end of January, but there is no order to attack yet. It's still "soft power" in the American way.

The inner front. The "second wave" protests are smoldering, but there are no mass exits to the streets. The Internet blackout is broken from below, but the bazaars are quiet and allow Tehran to keep the situation under control.

Tehran's position. Khamenei is alive and well and continues the rhetoric of "regional war", while carefully moving Araghchi and Larijani to the negotiating table.

Result:

The ayatollahs can say "Alhamdulillah" to Oman — the window of diplomacy is open. Trump is in no hurry to press the button, giving a chance to a nuclear and missile deal.

But the exhale will be short. If the round of negotiations (we are waiting for February 9-11) fails, the "talk first" phase will instantly change to "bomb later". Israel is pushing, Trump is hiding a "Midnight Sledgehammer-2" behind his back, and Russia will not bring itself out.

We're watching Muscat. A pause is not peace yet.

Source: Telegram "zimovskyAL"