Advice and recommendations Excapper.com
Iaroslav Mykhaliov, @redpioneerTelegram: https://t.me/excapper_com
The most significant points of the recommendations, to get 65-70% winrate and ROI above 20-25%
Betting at the end of the game #5,8
Odds difference with local bookies #6
Bet365 drop HT #7
- It is worth paying attention to games, where there is a big imbalance bets in the market, moreover, consider the odds. In this example, was very strange bets. More than 15,000 euros were bets at the odds of 4, and the proportion in the market amounted to 97% of the money. For payment of almost 60k euros, and the goal in half was scored by 45+4
Of course, this is a 100% winnings, but at least such games should be paid attention.
2. For different leagues - different summ of bets. For example, for Indonesia 1 league 7,000 dollars in goal in a half, this is a small bets. For Brazil U-20 are already significant bets, and not fans are most likely to bet everything.
3. Sometimes it is worth paying attention to statistics, such as tables. In the game: https://www.excapper.com/?action=game&id=32101800#tab_content_209919888
there were more than $ 400,000 per away team. The colossal difference between the teams and the odds for the favorite in the moment reached 3.
Excapper.com is a tool for finding not only potential contractual games, but also value bets.
4. Look for which odds bets was made. Sometimes it happens that almost all the money was bets for a odds of 1.1 - 1.2, and over time it will higher. Of course, you can develop your own game strategies based on this, but you should not consider this example as a potentially fix game or insider, as fix games with such a odds do not.
5. A special charm in games where there is a sharp increase in the summ of bets at the end of the game. In this example, more than 15,000 euros were bets in 10 minutes of the FT for 4.5 over. If we also consider the league - Hong-Kong, the first division, then with a high probability this was a fix game, as similar games often play in this division.
6. It is also worth paying attention to the drop in the odds, and to the odds of bookmakers. In the example above, on the BetFair odds was 1.3, and the all bookmakers about 2. Of course, you can make a fork, but there is no sense in this, as the game is more likely to be fix and more profite to bet on 1 way.
7. In games where bet365 drop the HT and there were big bets on the exchange, the winrate is higher, but they need to bet only on local bookmakers, as often the odds there are much higher and there are markets for HT. I (@redpioneer) also have a bot that notifies when bet365 has drop a HT.
8. Big and sharp bets at the end of the game.
Consider the last 2 examples:
https://www.excapper.com/?action=game&id=32204273#tab_content_211689763
https://www.excapper.com/?action=game&id=32208451#tab_content_211751302
And, a recent game from a private channel:
Of the last 5 such examples, all won. If you approach even from a logical point, then these games are clearly of a fix maybe. At the 78th minute of the game in the AS Nordia Jerusalem - Maccabi Ramla match, only about 1000 euros were placed for 5.5 goals in the game, also if we consider other markets, such as 2.5 over, 3.5, 4.5. - in all the sum bets did not exceed 2500 euros in the market over. This includes prematch bets.
And what is the result - almost 80 minutes of the game and a few days before its announcement, bets were made on 1-3k euros on the total markets. And 10 minutes before the end of the game, there are bets for 12,000 euros for one goal.
And a similar situation in a friendly game, only the amount of bets at the end reached 20-25 thousand euros.
9. Lay bets, cancel fix game. With experience, you begin to notice that in some games, after big bets on 1 market, for example, on total over, odds dropping and the spread of these games in closed / open telegram groups, bets on a different market (total under) go very sharply. I noticed such a trend only in Israel, and it was obvious.
And here is the second example:
In just 4 minutes, the odds raise from 1.75 to 3. And more than 20% of the money left the market. Also, it is worth noting that the bookmakers at that time had only 1.9-2 odds for this market. And on the Betfair, odds very raise.
This trend is noticed only in 1, maximum 2 games out of 10. But, it's still better to keep an eye on them, if possible, so you can save yourself an extra unit.
10. Disproportion of bets
In this game:
https://www.excapper.com/?action=game&id=32490153#tab_content_216116734
The bet amounts were very unevenly distributed + bet365 drop the HT. For example:
And what comes out.
With over 1.5 HT, the bookmaker will pay out - 27,000 euros of net profit.
With under 1.5 HT, the bookmaker will only have 2,000 euros of net profit.
Those. very large disproportionate stakes were made in this game. Also take into account the fact that this was Colombia 2 league and bets were made at odds of 3-4 on goals in the half. Those gambling people will not bet like that.
In the future, I want to make additional columns, which will show the % of the distribution of money by markets.
In general, everyone can develop a unique strategy for themselves, such as “Back” or "Lay" bets, search values, fix game and others.
https://www.excapper.com/
https://t.me/excapper_com
@redpioneer