ASYMMETRIC ANALYSIS: Minimum elements to understand the US withdrawal from Afghanistan

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Warning to readers

Certainly an analysis of such a complex nation and a culture as old as the Afghan is not an easy task, nor a short one and, being fair, it deserves a greater extension and perhaps greater depth, mainly taking into account the current situation, for this reason we try to point out Some important aspects that provide our readers with minimal elements to try to understand this current event of global impact, aware that the following analysis may generate a lot of criticism and may not be well received, we consider it necessary and urgent.

The Center of the World

The central area of Asia has had a fundamental importance in history, various empires such as that of Genghis Khan, Alexander the Great, Persians, Iranians, Indians, British, French have developed or tried to dominate the region of central Asia known as the Hindu Kush , which represented the most difficult challenge that most did not overcome.

After in 1904 the Englishman Halford John Mackinder (politician and geographer) exposed his theory of the heartland or of the continental heart in which he tried to foresee the future of world geopolitical power based on geographical distribution, the importance of Central Asia for the great powers, a theory that lost relevance with naval development, later recovered with the development of trains and finally the development of aeronautics again - apparently - played down its importance.

Certainly the territory in question has enjoyed great relevance, that is how the United States entered the 21st century hand in hand with the Rumsfeld-Cebrowski doctrine in which the West (misnamed Middle East) and Central Asia had a relevant role, equally China with its project of the strip and the route reaffirms the importance in the region, the Americans aiming to chaotize (as we have seen the last 20 years) and the Chinese to expand economically with considerable levels of development for the countries involved in their project .

That said, let's see where the Taliban organization comes from, we could trace to groups beyond the Indo-Aryan groups the origins of a society historically marked by two characteristics that have remained until today, the cultivation, herding and an isolationist character. (perhaps determined by geographical conditions) that has generated a culture that tends mainly to be conservative.

Taliban, Mujahideen and Al-Qaeda

Talib means student, Taliban, students, this with reference to the study of the Koran, this Muslim religious current of the Sunni current and influenced by Saudi Wahhabism, holds a fundamentalist interpretation of the Koran, we must understand that in the historical development of Arab culture and Persian social construction starts from a theocratic perspective, so the idea of ​​state and government can be very distant from the western one.

Its origin as an organization is relatively recent, 1994 although the term was used by the British in 1888 to refer to the most daring and savage fighters of the resistance that British colonialism faced in the region, heirs of the Mujahideen (the one who fights the war holy) mainly those who resisted the democratic republic of Afghanistan (of socialist orientation) and the social and political reforms that it implemented such as the liberation and equality of women, the secularity of the state and the agrarian reforms, the latter were the point of bankruptcy that radicalized the most conservative sectors.

The tribal sectors that rose up against the Afghan socialist government were quickly exploited by the Americans and British in the middle of the Cold War, offering them political support from Pakistan, economic financing, training and state-of-the-art military equipment in the framework of Operation Cyclone. It is there that characters such as Osama Bin Laden, founder of Al-Qaida and Mohammad Omar, the greatest Taliban leader, are formed, this interaction forms an anti-communist, anti-Western character in the groups that defeat the Soviet forces (contradictorily taking into account their original financiers ) and mainly fundamentalist.

Thus, there are "family ties" between the Taliban, Al-Qaida, and Daesh, both due to their fundamentalist ideology, their "hidden" relations with US imperialism and, to a lesser extent, British imperialism, as well as the role of proxy operators that fulfill In the chaotic geopolitical dynamics of the Americans in the region, as in every family, those economic and ideological blood ties do not exclude confrontations between cousins, this is how, in the midst of the destabilization of Syria, Libya and Iraq, Daesh and Al- Qaida mainly trying to monopolize the business of war and also in Afghanistan both groups against the Taliban, it will be interesting to see how the acquisition of a nation state will impact on the relations of these groups.

Ethnicities, Tribes and religion or simple economy?

Now, a lot of effort is made by Western media to impose a religious vision of the conflicts in Africa and Asia, its latest expression is the campaign that has as its epicenter the Uighur ethnic minority in China, but when we see the geographical distribution of ethnic groups and religious, there is a great diversity and coexistence between different ethnic and religious groups, when what is sold is that there is no tolerance between the different currents. Rather, this geographical review shows us that violent groups are a minority and their territorial control is based on the fear and terror they generate.

But this media illusion of the religious conflict is nothing more than a distracting element that serves to hide geopolitical interests on the one hand, an immense black market for weapons and a drug trafficking network on the other, only comparable to the one that revolves around Colombia. As in the New Granada country, the increase in the US military presence in Afghanistan translated into a 900% increase in heroin production. Peace did not imply a reduction in violence, nor in the production of drug trafficking, it is to be expected that in Afghanistan the US tactical withdrawal will not be reflected in prosperity and progress, reduction of violence or the production of opium.

Difference Between Run AwayAnd Retreat

Another element has been a constant comparison of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan with the defeat in Vietnam, in this regard it is decontextualized to compare the resistance and victory of the Vietnamese people against the United States that dropped more bombs in a small territory than those used in the Second War. World-wide on European territory, with the voluntary, programmed, consensual and negotiated withdrawal of the US military forces in Afghanistan.

On the one hand, we must evaluate if the United States is really defeated militarily, if it only reached a stalemate where the invader does not achieve the suppression of resistance and control of the territory or if agreements were reached under the table where the locals guarantee the flow of opium, the wedge role in the region and the strengthening of the so-called Muslim terrorism and military presence is no longer necessary.

And it is that the image of the defeated United States has many edges in the current situation, on the one hand it is left with a weakened image in the midst of the Chinese and Russian boom on the international board that can generate empathy from the global audience if it is known to channel, It could even strengthen the consensus around the need for agreements and common efforts against the specter of "terrorism" this in the medium and long term, but, and as a counterpart, the defeat of the "evil imperialist invader" if it is channeled correctly to a large extent. This measure washes the face of the Taliban before international opinion on the opportunity to install a new government, this in the short term, since due to the high profitability that drug trafficking represents, the need to implement violence to support that industry and the importance of a facade for all this and there nothing better than some religious conflict with neighboring countries, sooner or later, but immediately Afghanistan is co Become a base of support for the expansion and strengthening of terrorism in the region and due to its political nature, its natural articulation is with an imperialist project, which is why nations such as China, Russia and Iran immediately consider establishing relations diplomats in the opportunity to influence the country and prevent the strengthening of terrorist groups in their territories.

However, a comparison of the current withdrawal with the Soviet withdrawal at the end of the last century is not valid either, since the Soviets face a resistance well financed and endowed with last generation weapons that at one point of the conflict at least allowed a technological parity of the Mujahideen and the Soviet forces, the case between the Americans and the Taliban totally different, where much of the weapons, techniques, tactics and financing came from the same aggressor country, while the Soviet-Mujahideen conflict was a proxy war, in the The US-Taliban case is not.

To award a vindictive interpretation of an “anti-imperialist” nationalism with a social base of support comparable to that which existed in Vietnam is an outburst, although the Taliban have great support in mountainous and peasant regions, the same does not happen in urban territories and more. Westernized, industrialized, and developed, while Vietnam was a mostly unified nation around fighting the invader, Afghanistan is more like a bag of cats, where multiple warlords, drug lords, and local warlords unified around to a “common enemy”, in the absence of this they are very likely to enter into internal conflicts.

Finally, in this regard, it is worth noting that to a large extent the support that the Taliban has at this time is based on the fear generated by the violent exercise of Islamic fundamentalism that they preach, just as the departure of the Soviet army did not bring stability, unity. national and development, most likely the American exit will be the same, while in Vietnam the story is totally different.

Definitive closure of the unipolar cycle

The truth is that the American military exit (it will be necessary to see that economic relations are established) from Afghanistan represents the closing of a cycle for US-NATO imperialism, being an acceptance of the infeasibility of the imposition of a unipolar hegemony already In turn, it is the gateway to multipolar relations with China, Russia and the United States as protagonists in a third place.

This allows us to foresee that there will be a greater monotheistic emphasis in US international politics, at the same time that by its nature it will play under the table to try to generate a world balance that allows certain levels of superiority, to a large extent the dispute between sovereignists. and globalists lean towards the latter, certainly there is much to write, but the recent events in Afghanistan should definitely not be characterized as a popular victory, an imperialist defeat, or a stabilization of the region.

Big losers in Afghanistan

With the arrival of the Taliban, the great losers are Afghan civilians and women, since beyond the foreseeable media management where they offer small spaces of tolerance towards women, child and gender oppression, as well as exploitation, deepens, since What will develop is an oligarchic model with the possibility of building a new landowning elite based on arms, fundamentalism and drug trafficking.

This is understood in a certain sense when comparing the advances during the existence of the Afghan democratic republic of socialist orientation, regarding education, development, respect for women and the secularization of the country, which were radically deeper than in the past. period after the change of Government and even less during these 20 years of US occupation.

These events open a stage where reality becomes much more complex and difficult to understand, where the nuances and referential moral parameters are extremely diffuse and generates an environment conducive to manipulating the masses in order to impose new patterns of behavior. social models and ultimately the updating of forms of exploitation and alienation. We must have a very critical and deeply analytical reading of the Afghan situation, the American withdrawal and the new global dynamics that this entails.

We await your opinions, comments or any inaccuracies.

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Links and sources:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8BDTTs38i10

https://www.telesurtv.net/news/estados-unidos-retirada-afganistan-fracaso--20210816-0006.html

https://mundo.sputniknews.com/20210817/el-taliban-busca-crear-un-afganistan-viable-1115154808.html

https://www.pagina12.com.ar/361926-kabul-game-over

https://www.voltairenet.org/article213645.html

https://www.voltairenet.org/article212956.html

https://www.voltairenet.org/article213166.html

https://www.voltairenet.org/article212755.html

https://www.voltairenet.org/article212747.html

https://www-washingtonpost-com.translate.goog/outlook/2020/10/22/taliban-isis-drones-afghanistan/?arc404=true&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=es&_x_tr_hl=es-419&_x_tr_pto=ajax,nv,elem

http://jsmutxamel.blogspot.com/2015/09/el-afganistan-socialista-1978-1992.html?m=1

https://www.forbes.com.mx/ganancias-y-opio-el-comercio-ilegal-de-drogas-en-afganistan-es-una-ventaja-para-los-talibanes/