ASSESSMENT OF UKRAINE'S POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK

THE STATE OF UKRAINE as of February 2014 publishes information on the population of all regions - 45,2 million people. Subtracting 2,3 million (the population of the Crimea and Sevastopol as of February 2014) we obtain 42,8 million people – the listed population of Ukraine as of February 2014.

Further, in subsequent years, all published tables by State Statistics Committee of Ukraine (UKRSTAT) report on the population of Ukraine excluding Crimea and Sevastopol.

It should be noted that even UKRSTAT for the reporting periods shows figures that differ slightly for more than +–100 thousand of people annually when taking into account those born or residing ones as of the reporting date. Yes, we know that half of the population in the DPR and LPR don't actually live in the republics, we know that approx. a million Ukrainians live permanently in Poland and other countries. But in the absence of other figures, we take the benchmarks indicated by official statistics. The rest we keep in mind as correction factors.

UKRSTAT estimates that the population of Ukraine in January 2022 is 40,9 million people. What strikes the eye when we look at the region data at the beginning of 2022? The population of Donetsk region (4,0 million), Lugansk region (2,1 million). We compare UKRSTAT' data for January 2014, in which the population of Donetsk region (4,3 million) and Lugansk region (2,2 million). Too small is a difference since 2014, given that half of the regions' territories are not under control. Thus, all these years, UKRSTAT counted the entire population of Donetsk and Lugansk regions in the total number of residents.

As for 2022, there are data on the population of the DPR – 2,2 million, LPR – 1,4 million. The calculation of the population was based on the 2001 nationwide Ukrainian census, including data from the civil registry office of the DPR Ministry of Justice and the Migration Service of the DPR Interior Ministry, so we cannot rely on their reliability. However, this figure may suggest how many residents can be excluded from the calculation of the number of residents on the territories of Donetsk and Lugansk regions under the control of Ukraine.

If we subtract the number of residents in the DPR and LPR for 2022 from the UKRSTAT figure of 40,9 million published by the authorities of the DPR and LPR, we get 37,3 million of the Ukraine's population.

Some of the Livejournal users also keep their own records: for 2019 – 38,2 million people. (Note from the LJ author: this figure was obtained by subtracting the population in towns and districts of the Donbass outside Ukrainian control, using the district data on pop-stat.mashke.org).

THE POPULATION size of the Ukrainian-controlled territory can be suggested by the publication of data by UKRSTAT of 271,000 births in 2021 and the birth rate of 7,3 per 1,000 people. Consequently, the population size for the calculation of the specific birth rate is just over 37,000 people (271,000/7,1=37,123 people). We can add to this number the official number of IDPs (internally displaced people) registered by Ukrainian authorities in 2014-2017, approximately 700,000 people. Based on this, we get an average figure of 38 million of Ukraine's available population before the SMO.

AT THE BEGINNING of 2022, UKRSTAT reports on 40,9 million people (including all of Donetsk and Lugansk regions and excluding the population of Crimea and Sevastopol).  Subtract the part of territories not controlled by Ukraine.

By the end of 2022, the Russian Federation controls the Lugansk region (-2,1 million people from Ukraine's figure at the beginning of 2022). We shall deduct from the total population of the Donetsk region (UKRSTAT' data of 4 million people) the total number of residents of the DPR (-2,2 million), and a number of large settlements in the DPR, which are not under control of Ukraine: Mariupol (-461 thousand people), Volnovakha (-20 thousand), Svetlodarsk (-11 thousand), rural areas are not counted. After deduction of territories not under the control of Ukraine, we shall assume that there are 1,3 million people in the Donetsk region controlled by Ukraine, or 2,7 million people of the population of Ukraine at the beginning of 2022.

Kherson oblast is considered to have lost its entire population (-1 million people).

Out of the total population of 1,6 million people in Zaporozhye region, some part is controlled by the Russian Federation, except for the city of Zaporozhye (770 thousand people), Orekhovo (13 thousand), Huliaipole (13 thousand), Volnyansk (14 thousand). It turns out that over 810 thousand people are controlled by Ukraine (not including villages), total -800 thousand people for Ukraine in Zaporozhye region since the beginning of 2022.

Approximately according to the statistics from 40,9 million in January 2022: -2,7 million (DPR); -2,1 million (LPR); -1 million (Kherson reg.); - 800 thousand (Zaporozhye reg.) = 34,4 million people in the list attached to the regions, which are controlled by Ukraine. As always, we can add +–1 million in any direction, i.e. 34-35 million. Rounded up: 35,000 million people. This is 85% of the Ukrainian listed population at the beginning of 2022. We can stop at this figure.

NOVAYA Gazeta reports:

According to the UNHCR (United Nations High Comissioner for Refugees), 14,325,424 people have arrived from Ukraine to neighbouring countries since the start of Russia's special military operation on February, the 24th. At the same time, 6,941,852 people crossed the border in the opposite direction. (The difference is 14,325,000 -6,941,000 = 7,384,000 who have not yet returned).

There is such a spread and we believe that a small number left for the Russian Federation from the Kiev-controlled territories. The vast majority of refugees of the 2,852,395 in the RF are from the territories under Russian control.

Thus, we can deduct a maximum of 7,384,000 from the number of 34,395,000 registered in the territory of Ukraine, and a minimum of 4,406,000 who left for the Russian Federation. An average of 6 million. Now the population on the territory of Ukraine after the exclusion of refugees from the calculation is from 27 million to 29,9 million. Let's spin our rounding drum and look at the figures of the population actually staying on the territory of Ukrainian control of 28-29 million.

MORE about demography – the war is not only about now, but also about the future. UKRSTAT divides population into age groups:

Here you can see children – 7,348.5 million (0-17 years old), active labour population (18-59 years old, subtract category 60+ from category 18+) 23,5 million, and population over 60 years old (10,1 million). We have seen how the population of Ukraine is divided by age. Let us look into the future. That, actually, for what the SMO was conceived for. From the second France to make the second Romania, but better Bulgaria.

UKRSTAT reports that in 2021 there were 7,3 people born per 1 thousand of the population. We can calculate for the end of 2022.

The number of inhabitants is the same as in the Option 1 – (approximately 35 million people). There is a nuance in the age and sex composition. We take from UKRSTAT the number of live births per 1,000 women of the same age in 2021, which was 31,3 for ages 15-49, and calculate the estimated number of remaining women ages 15-49 for birth estimates. We assume that refugees abroad are highly mobile people with incomes. Then pensioners, people over 60 years of age, can be excluded from the category of those who have left. Let us also take the fact that a disproportionate number of women of childbearing age left the country, because men were not allowed out and were drafted into the army, etc. INOSMI (https://inosmi.ru/20220920/bezhentsy-256213607.html), for example, writes the following:

...So, what is the portrait of a refugee? A woman with children and a diploma. Her age (only 18% of Ukrainians who came to the EU are men) from 25 to 44 years old, and it is likely that she is married (every second Ukrainian woman left her spouse in Ukraine). She is very likely to have come from a town or a small city (88%) and to have brought one or two children with her (three quarters of the refugees). She is also in search of an opportunity to verify her university degree in Europe – 58% of all migrants have it...

The version of a mass exodus of fertile women is confirmed. The article describes 18% of refugees as non-women, so 82% are women as well. Even if they are counted as women and children, that is the vast majority. As the lowest threshold, a figure of 2/3 of women in the refugee population is considered acceptable and we will try to use this proportion in the future. The first Internet link we came across about the proportions of the Ukrainian population, reports that for the Ukrainian population of 43 million people (counting with the Crimea and regions of Novorossiya). This is a demo counter, but no other data is available.

It is interesting that women from 45 to 49 years old in Ukraine have fertility of 0,8 per 1000 women of the given age, (1 million of such women will give birth to 800 people on the average) we propose to remove ages 45-49 from counting, their weight in the total number of births is insignificant. We leave women aged 15-44. Thus, 3,246+5,038=8,284 million women of fertile age (with a ratio of 31,3 would give birth to 259 thousand people, which is approximately equal to the fertility level of Ukraine in recent years). This is with the number of women per population of 43 million.

Hocus pocus voila:

If there are 6 million refugees and at least 2/3 of the 6 million refugees are women of fertile age, then about 4,3 million women of 18-44 years old (8,284-4,000) will remain in Ukraine, with a ratio of 31 and the number of births on the territory, controlled by Ukraine will be about 130 thousand.

If there are 4 million refugees and at least 2/3 of them are women of childbearing age, some 5,6 million women (8,284-2,600) will be left on the territory of Ukraine, with a ratio of 31 and the number of births on the territory, controlled by Ukraine will be about 180 thousand.

However, it is worth bearing in mind that the figures from the two paragraphs above are for a population of 43 million people, as there is no other data on the number of women aged 15-44. The approximate number of the permanent population of Ukraine in the controlled territories has been established as 35 million people. Which is about 20% less than 43 million (43,000*0.8=35,000). If we consider the number of women aged 15-44 in relation to the 35 million available population rather than ki43 million, fertile women should be 0.8 of the base number, which is 6,6 million persons aged 15-44 of the 35 million population. Let's apply hocus pocus voila to Ukraine with a population of 35 million people (what Ukraine controls):

1. From 6 million refugees (2/3 of them women) that leave Ukraine: (8,284*0.8-4,000) = 2,6 million women of fertile age and 80 thousand births
2. From 4 million refugees (2/3 of them women), that leave Ukraine (8,284*0.8-2,600)=4 million women of fertile age and 125 thousand births

As you can see, uncertainty with the number of millions of refugees gives a large spread:

Not accounted for: increased mortality during hostilities, mass exodus of guest workers in previous years, postponement of births due to the unstable situation, deaths of potential fathers.

There were 38 million people living on the territory of Ukraine by the beginning of 2022; by the end of 2022 there will be 30 million people at the most and 27 million people at the least.

If we complete the SMO with Minsk agreements-3 now, about 250,000 people will be born in 2023.

If refugees of different ages do not return in winter, the number of births will be about 210,000 people.

If there are 6 million refugees in the West, and most of them are women and children, then there will be about 130 thousand births on the territory of Ukraine. And since all demographic figures are published taking into account the population of all of Ukraine and its former parts, it is safe to bet on 100 thousand.

The most negative demographic scenario, the departure of 6 million people as refugees of the non-retirement population for a period of at least one year, respectively, reducing the number of births to double digits.

On the negative side. In 2023, someone in Ukraine will have to support more than 10 million people aged over 60 years, and we hope it is not our budget.

If there is a statesman in Russia who would implement the programme of relocation to the Russian Federation of at least 50 thousand people aged 0-40 years from every controlled region of Ukraine and restriction of movement to the Russian Federation of people aged over 40 years, the problem of the South-West centre of power will be solved in the next 10-15 years.

From the goals of the SMO: the future is determined not by the number of deaths, but by the number of births. It is the human resource residing in the area in 10-20-30 years.

References:

1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine
2. https://ru.zhujiworld.com/ua/
3. ukrstat.gov.ua (demography section, almost all population figures by region, age, births are taken from here)
4. https://www.rbc.ru/politics/05/08/2022/62ebb8db9a7947bce3a039e6
5. https://lenta.ru/news/2022/10/05/un_/
6. Wikipedia

FOR THE USE of the sofa division in the economics and politics section. All calculations are made with convention and assumptions ± kilometre. In addition, we offer the following numbers for induction to account for the mobilisation potential of the AFU:

According to UKRSTAT, in the country 23,5 million people of age 18-59 years old within the borders of all Ukraine in 2021, taking into account Donetsk and Lugansk. Taking into account the ratio of 85% of the population of Ukraine, the number of people aged 18-59 in the controlled territory is 20 million people.

In year of 2013, information was published that there were ~2,8 million disabled people in the country of whom 80% were of working age.

BDex https://bdex.ru/naselenie/ukraine/ gives the figure that in 2022 there are 3,362,000 disabled people in the country, including 3 million disabled adults, a source not very reliable, but the order of figures is the same as in earlier publications.

The working age in Ukraine for men is considered under 60 years old and for women – under 55. We propose to assume that the 18-60 age group of the population meets these requirements. 80% of 2,8 million disabled people are 2,2 million disabled people of working age. In the first part of the article it is roughly established that the population of Ukrainian-controlled territories at the end of 2022 is 85% of the listed population in 2021. Then the number of disabled people of working age in Ukraine-controlled areas is 85% of 2,2 million people or 1,9 million people, rounded up to 2 million (one million men and one million women each).

From 20 million people of 18-59 years old, we exclude 2 million, leaving 18 million people. The number of men and women of that age is approximately equal, the tilt in favour of women starts after the age of 60. There are 9 million men without disabilities of working age under the control of the Ukrainian state. Some of them were already in the army at the beginning of 2021, some were mobilised, some went abroad.

Original: https://lostarmour.info/articles/ukraine-population

Author: Mikhas Mikhalych

Translated by: Anton Fodeve

(@fodeve, sevmob.t.me)

@SLGAnalytica