A little sofa analytics before dinner

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Forecast details of the blow of the Russian Federation.

Since the attack of Russia has already been predicted by many, it will now be logical to think about what the blow will be, and when and where it will occur? Therefore, let us together try to determine the possible specific goals of Russia in the attack and its chances of achieving these goals.

1. The blow of the Russian Federation from Crimea looks most dangerous. In such a scenario, having traveled 150 km to the North, the enemy would create a threat to a large industrial area, launch Dnieper water to the Crimea and create a threat to the environment for the entire ZSU group in the Azov region. So Mariupol and Berdyansk may need to surrender without a fight - to free up troops for the defense of Zaporozhye and not leave them under the threat of encirclement.

When striking from the Crimea, a dangerous ZSU split into two parts will occur. Since large forces still have to keep in the East, and the rest - to restrain the advance of the enemy from the South.

The good thing in this variant is that the big offensive from the Crimea cannot be supplied for a long time. The resources accumulated on the peninsula will not be enough for a long time, knowing to carry everything across the bridge, knowing that a missile can get into it at any moment is extremely risky. In addition, the position of the Crimean front of the Russian Federation will become quite bad if, within a month of active fighting and the transition of the war to the trench stage, the Azov corridor to the Crimea does not arise.

2. It is possible that before the strike in Ukraine, the troops of the Russian Federation will be occupied by Belarus. And its population is partially mobilized. In this scenario, the ZSU will have to spread its forces along the huge border also in the north of the country. At the same time, during the invasion from Belarus, a noticeable shelling of Kiev and Lvov can begin in a week. Which, of course, can badly affect the perception of the situation inside the country.

Of course, you can avoid the described troubles by entering the war on the territory of Belarus and supporting military units and partisan troops loyal to the neighboring state. But for this you need not to miss the moment and not be afraid that "Putin will attack."

3. Strike from the East and Ordlo.

This is a very time consuming option. After two easy victories in the seizure of Kharkov and Sumy, the army of the Russian Federation will have many months of penetration to the Dnieper. For what? To rest on a wide river and a powerful, built by that time line of defense on its high bank?

In each of the described variants of troubles, the fact that the Russian Federation can always concentrate forces for strikes without fearing for the flanks can add. After all, it is clear in advance that, in response to a strike, Ukraine will still not dare to cross the border of the Russian Federation and crush the supply and logistics of its advancing troops.

In addition, it must be borne in mind that for an offensive in Ukraine, the Russian Federation can send up to 150 thousand regular army (not more, because the Russian army is now deployed too many places). And another 500 - 700 thousand mobilized, from which in the first 2 - 3 months of fighting will be of little use.

Consequently, there will be no overwhelming numerical advantage for the Russian army after three days of fighting. And then she will have to attack comparable forces. That is guaranteed to slow down the advancement of troops after the first week of fighting.

Thus, the Russian Federation does not have a technical opportunity to conquer Ukraine in any short time. And in half a year, the conflict will already be equally dangerous for both countries.

In this case, the threat of a nuclear strike should not be considered - too close to the Russian territory. Yes, and the loss of a couple of cities or groups of troops - absolutely will not force the ZSU and volunteer units to stop the resistance.

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From a comparison of forces and scenarios, it immediately follows that after a month of battles, and even earlier, Merkel will be rushing around Europe with a treaty drawn up by Lavrov. And under cries, stop the war, otherwise Putin will crush you, and the EU will stop supporting you, if you continue to fight, it will force Ukraine to agree to the loss of territories and part of sovereignty.

Why not? In the Russian Federation and Germany, this trick has already worked fine five times. The reaction of the USA and Great Britain to everything described above is difficult to predict.

Russian/original version: