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The Feds Cautious Optimism in April: Whats Next? (Part 5 of 8) ( Continued from Part 4 ) Oh inflation, where art thou? Inflation has several measures, including the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the PPI (Producer Price Index). But when the U.S. Federal Reserve talks about inflation, it’s referring to the price index for personal consumption expenditures (or PCE). According to the central bank, this indicator is the “most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate.” PCE inflation has been rising slowly. This has given monetary policymakers the blues. According to the dual mandate of the central bank, policymakers have a specific target for real PCE inflation. They are mandated to aim for a 2% annual growth rate level for this measure in the long term. A goal too far off? A look at the graph above will show you how far policymakers are from that goal. Keep in mind that it’s the PCE inflation and not the core PCE inflation that needs to trend toward 2%. Core PCE strips off volatile food and energy prices when calculating the index. This is the precise reason core PCE inflation has been rising faster than PCE inflation. The fall in energy prices have pressured overall inflation. In a double whammy, consumers have not come out to shop with their windfall gains from the drop in energy prices. Sales of department stores like Macy’s (M) and Kohl’s (KSS) fell in the winter months. However, online sales increased, helping companies like Amazon (AMZN). Due to a slower-than-expected rise in consumer spending, ETFs such as the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) have suffered. While XLY is up just 4.7% this year, XLP has crawled up by a mere 0.7%. Let’s see in the next article how energy prices have impacted PCE inflation recently and what stance policymakers are taking. Continue to Part 6 Browse this series on Market Realist: Part 1 - Has the Fed Taken Rate Hike Timing off the Table? Part 2 - Should Markets Be Happy or Worried about April FOMC Statement? Part 3 - Does a Cautiously Optimistic FOMC Suggest a Deferred Rate Hike? View comments
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