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U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude closed over the psychological $50 level on Monday for the first time since May 24. The futures contract ended up about 9 percent for the month, its best monthly performance since April 2016. September WTI crude oil settled at $50.17, up $0.46 or +0.93% and October Brent crude oil closed at $52.72, up $0.50 or +0.96%. Daily September West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil The market continued to be supported by declining U.S. crude stockpiles and Saudi Arabia’s pledge to cut oil exports in August. Additionally, traders may have been reacting to a potential cut in supply from Venezuela, which is expected to be slapped by U.S. sanctions. Additionally, OPEC announced over the week-end that some members of the cartel, including top oil exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia will meet next week to discuss ways to improve compliance with a deal to limit output, trim the global supply and stabilize prices. Finally, U.S. shale producers have also begun reducing capital spending plans. Daily October Brent Crude Forecast Crude oil has been rising for all the right reasons, however, there are headwinds to continue. Firstly, now that the market has reached the $50 level, we could start to see increased hedging pressure as producers attempt to lock in prices that seemed impossible to achieve about a month ago. Furthermore, the global oil markets remain amply supplied. This could slow down the rally, or even cap gains. Additionally, OPEC is still struggling to cut excess supply which may be why they called the meeting scheduled for next week. According to a new survey from Reuters, oil output by OPEC has risen this month by 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a 2017-high of 33 million bpd. Most of the gain was attributed to increased output from Libya and Nigeria. The WTI and Brent trends are up according to the daily chart, but now the market is approaching key weekly chart resistance that has guided the market lower since the beginning of the year. I won’t be convinced that the longer-term trend has turned until the tops on the weekly chart are crossed. In the meantime, the vertical rally over the past week may be getting close to overdone. Long-term rallies don’t usually move in a vertical fashion so we may need a short-term correction to chase out some of the weaker longs. The best sign of a short-term top will be a higher-high, lower-close. Look for volatility after the release of this week’s American Petroleum Institute’s weekly inventories data after the close. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Commodities Daily Forecast – August 1, 2017 Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Market Vulnerable to Renewed Hedging Pressure Gold and Oil Moving Higher Steadily Oil Monthly Forecast – August 2017 Crude Oil Price Forecast August 1, 2017, Technical Analysis Dow Closes at Record on the Back of Solid Quarterly Earnings View comments
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