16 Betting Spread

16 Betting Spread
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With just two weeks remaining in the 2020 NFL regular season, just about every game in Week 16 contains some degree of playoff implication. Keen bettors will be looking for any edge to attack in hopes of winning big and paying off those pesky post-holiday bills!
Every week, this column provides a detailed breakdown of our favorite bets, weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL offers, whether you prefer betting against the spread, moneylines, or over/unders. Check us out now to reveal our full betting predictions for every game of Week 16, including projections and best bet ratings from our NFL Best Bet Model.
All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.
All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard .
Cincinnati Bengals (+9) at Houston Texans
To some, picking the 3-10-1 Bengals in a short week after they upset the 11-2 Steelers might seem like the equivalent of chasing points in fantasy football. But anyone who watched that Monday Night Football game knows that Pittsburgh didn’t just choke last week -- the Bengals also fought for that win. What a breath of fresh air that must have been for Cincinnati coach Zac Taylor, who has witnessed his team suffer countless setbacks during their 2020 campaign.
Third-string QB Ryan Finley showed remarkable poise against a strong Pittsburgh defense, and now he draws one of the most vulnerable secondaries in the NFL in Houston. The Texans rank 31st in total yards allowed (402.6 per game) and have given up an average of 2.3 passing touchdowns per game over the past three weeks. They also serve as the second-worst rushing defense this season, surrendering 150.5 yards per game on the ground.
The Texans are currently on a three-game losing streak, during which they have been outscored 89-47. Even still, with Deshaun Watson under center, we at BetQL expect the Texans to win this game, but we have no reason to think they will win it by 10 points. Cincinnati’s defense showed last week that it shouldn’t be counted out based on its record, and Finley can compete when given the chance and fully prepped for the start.
We would feel much more confident in this pick if wide receiver Tyler Boyd clears concussion protocol, but we think the Bengals cover the +9 even if they just have veteran A.J. Green and rookie Tee Higgins out wide. They should also be able to open up the field a bit if veteran back Gio Bernard can pick up where he left off last week (97 total yards, two touchdowns).
The BetQL Best Bet Model features this as one of its top underdog picks against the spread this week, listing it with a full five-star confidence rating. Plain and simple, the Bengals stay in games and have covered in eight of their 14 games against the spread. Meanwhile, Houston ranks near the bottom of the NFL against the spread this season (5-9), and has gone just 2-4 ATS at home. Bet the undies, and then tell everyone at your Zoom Year’s Eve Party that you won money wagering on Ryan Finley and the Bengals.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+110) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Full disclosure: Pittsburgh has been abysmal lately, losing three consecutive games culminating in a 27-17 Monday Night Football shocker by the aforementioned Bengals. The Steelers haven't scored 20 points in a game since Nov. 22 and have inched their way to the top of the NFL leaderboard in dropped passes (27 total, alongside Dallas). But something tells us Steelers coach Mike Tomlin will have his team ready at home against Indy this weekend.
Steelers Nation knows this is a must-win for their team -- not just for morale but also to retain the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Tomlin’s squad has dropped each of its past two road contests and won 10 of its past 12 home games dating back to 2019. So, yes, this game looms large for the Steel City. And, yes, Pittsburgh should be listed as the favorite despite its recent struggles.
The Steelers rank second or better in a plethora of defensive categories, and allow the second-fewest passing yards per game (193.3). That’s one mark that hasn’t changed one bit over the course of the past three games, during which they have (incredibly) allowed 193.7 passing yards per game. Contrast that with Indy, which has served as a great defense in its own right but has faltered a bit as of late. The Colts have surrendered an average of 331.7 passing yards over the past three weeks, which ranks last in the NFL.
The BetQL Best Bet Model lists Pittsburgh’s +110 moneyline as a four-star bet. The Model also points out a five-star trend: Throughout his Steelers coaching career, Tomlin has gone 39-7 in home games in which the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. This game’s over/under is smack-dab in the middle of that range, at 44.5. The Steelers crack 20 points for the first time in five games and win by a field goal, 23-20.
Our sharp bettor report tells us that around 86 percent of money is on the UNDER in this game, and I can’t imagine why. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals finally started cooking again, winning two straight games and posting 59 total points in the process. They even put up 28 points in a losing effort against the stout defense of the Rams three weeks ago.
The perception in Vegas and among bettors seems to be that the 49ers have an above-average defense and therefore will swing the game UNDER. But San Francisco has been banged up all season, and the Niners D has spent so much time on the field they have shown obvious fatigue the past few weeks. Robert Saleh’s squad has surrendered an average of 25.1 points per game in 2020 and a whopping 32.7 points per game over the past three games (the latter of which is tied for third most in the NFL). The Cardinals, meanwhile, average over 23 points allowed on the season and in the past three weeks.
But this becomes a no-brainer when you look at Murray and the Cards’ scoring output and identify what kind of a game this will likely be. They have scored an average of 27.9 points per game in 2020 and 29 points per game over the past three games. The 49ers, meanwhile, have maintained their season-long scoring mean (23.8 points per game), averaging an even 24 points over the past few weeks.
With Arizona back to its high-flying offensive ways, and San Francisco putting points on the board with backup QBs (33 points in Dallas last week!), this feels like the under-the-radar over/under to target this week. I’m personally projecting a 30-24 Arizona win that keeps the Cardinals in the NFC wild card race.
Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bet, sharp data and much more for this game and every Week 16 contest! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL ! Thanks for reading, and have a happy, healthy, and safe Christmas!

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Week 16 is yet another in what has become the ultimate battle of attrition for teams, bettors and fantasy players alike. I am quite sure you don’t need proof, but there was a true anomaly last week. The NFL saw its fewest touchdowns scored on a Sunday since 1994.
Speaking of Week 15, we had three bets last week. Those bets went 2-1, but I am unsure how to log the Raiders bet for tracking purposes. The article was from Wednesday morning, and at that time, the Raiders were +3 and were the pick. So I think that should be a win, but I get it if you want to nah wave me on that one. The other two pays were the Dolphins and Bills . The Dolphins were -9, but only won by seven. The other play was a sweat-free win on the Bills , who rolled the Panthers . There was also the Cowboys -10.5, who I mentioned fell just a hair short of making the cut for final plays. Either way, we are now riding a month-long winning streak and will look to keep it rolling.
Once again moving back to Week 16. The number of injuries and positive COVID-19 players is going to make this week another maddening one. There are going to be land mines everywhere we have to avoid. While I will have betting picks for this week below, the best advice I can give is to be as discerning as possible this week. Player absences are going to make teams play differently and coaches will coach differently. I just feel there is an additional level of variance to navigate sprinkled on top. Keep your betting list short to protect as many units as possible while still getting your action in.
Speaking of a short betting list, there are only two recommended against the spread plays this week. Let’s get to those.
TJ is a winning dynasty, DFS, best ball and redraft player with a years-long track record of success in all facets of NFL.
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