贺锦丽和特朗普为争取摇摆选民展开“最后较量” - 纽约时报双语版

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump are carrying out a virtual house-to-house hunt for the final few voters who are still up for grabs, guided by months of painstaking research about these elusive Americans.

副总统贺锦丽和前总统特朗普相当于在挨家挨户寻找最后几位仍然有待争取的选民，指导二人的是数月来对这些难以捉摸的美国人的精心研究。

Inside the Delaware headquarters of Ms. Harris’s campaign, analysts have spent 18 months curating a list of which television shows and podcasts voters consume in the battleground states. Her team has assigned every voter in these states a “contactability score” from 0 to 100 to determine just how hard that person will be to reach — and who is best to deliver her closing message.

在贺锦丽位于特拉华州的竞选总部，分析师花了18个月的时间整理了一份名单，列出了选民在战场州观看的电视节目和收听的播客。她的团队给这些州的每位选民都打了从0到100分的“可接触性评分”，以确定要联系到这位选民有多困难，以及谁最适合传达她在最后时刻的竞选讯息。

The results are guiding Ms. Harris’s media and travel schedule, as well as campaign stops by brand-name supporters. For instance, the movie star Julia Roberts and the basketball great Magic Johnson earned high marks among certain voters, so they have been deployed to swing states.

贺锦丽的媒体和旅行日程以及品牌支持者的助选活动都受到了这些结果的影响。例如，电影明星朱莉娅·罗伯茨和篮球巨星“魔术师”约翰逊在某些选民中获得了很高评价，因此他们被派往摇摆州。

At Mr. Trump’s headquarters, in South Florida, his team recently refreshed its model of the battleground electorate and found that just 5 percent of voters were still undecided, half as many as in August. The Trump team calls them the “target persuadables” — younger, more racially diverse people with lower incomes who tend to use streaming services and social media. Mr. Trump has made appearance after appearance on those platforms, including on podcasts aimed at young men.

在特朗普位于南佛罗里达州的总部，团队最近更新了摇摆选民模型，发现只有5%的选民仍未做出决定，是8月的一半。特朗普团队称他们为“可说服的目标选民”——更年轻、种族更多样化、收入较低、倾向于使用流媒体服务和社交媒体。特朗普在这些平台上一次又一次露面，包括针对年轻男性的播客。

This furious search for a fickle sliver of the country has grown more urgent because the presidential contest is as close as any since the advent of modern polling, with the two candidates nearly deadlocked across the battleground states. The election could now ride on undecided Americans who have unplugged almost entirely from political news — making them tricky to find even for billion-dollar campaigns.

由于总统大选的选情是现代民意调查出现以来最接近的，两位候选人在各战场州几乎处于胶着状态，因此，对美国这一小部分善变人群的狂热搜寻变得更加迫切。现在的选举可能取决于尚未做出决定的美国人，他们几乎完全脱离政治新闻，因此即使是斥资数十亿美元的竞选活动也很难触及他们。

“These people are not super political,” said James Blair, the political director of the Trump campaign, “and so we’re doing non-super-political media.”

“这些都不是特别政治的人，”特朗普竞选团队的政治主管詹姆斯·布莱尔说，“所以我们用的就是‘不是特别政治’的媒介。”

In interviews, senior Harris and Trump advisers divulged some details of whom, exactly, they still view as up for grabs. Both see a group that is younger, with a disproportionate share of Black and Latino voters. The Harris campaign believes it can still win over some white college-educated voters, particularly women, who have historically voted Republican but are repelled by Mr. Trump.

在采访中，贺锦丽和特朗普的高级顾问透露了一些细节，说明他们认为哪些人仍有待争夺。双方都看到了一个相对年轻且黑人和拉丁裔选民占比格外高的群体。贺锦丽团队认为自己仍然可以赢得一些受过大学教育的白人选民，尤其是女性，这些人历来投票给共和党，但反感特朗普。

An analysis of polling in the battleground states from The New York Times and Siena College found that a mere 3.7 percent of their voters, or about 1.2 million people, were still truly undecided.

《纽约时报》和锡耶纳学院对战场州的民意调查进行的分析发现，在这两个州的选民中，只有3.7%的人，即大约120万人仍在真正未决的状态。

The Times analysis closely mirrored what the campaigns describe: a group heavy on younger voters, people of color and those without college degrees. Black voters make up about 21 percent of the undecideds, which helps explain Ms. Harris’s explicit push for them.

《纽约时报》的分析与竞选团队的描述非常接近：一个以年轻选民、有色人种和没有大学学位的人为主的群体。黑人选民约占未决定选民的21%，这有助于解释贺锦丽为何要明确地做他们的工作。

A surgical strategy for Harris

贺锦丽的外科手术式策略

The Harris campaign considers its audience of winnable swing voters to be up to 10 percent of voters in battleground states, slightly larger than what the Trump operation sees for itself or the Times polling indicates.

贺锦丽的竞选团队认为，他们在战场州可以赢得的摇摆选民占选民总数的比例高达10%，略高于特朗普竞选团队或时报民调显示的数字。

That is because the campaign includes a large number of Republican women who it believes dislike Mr. Trump, particularly on abortion policy, but want to hear Ms. Harris’s message on the economy and the border before they are persuaded.

这是因为这些选民中包括大量共和党女性，他们认为她们不喜欢特朗普，尤其是在堕胎政策上，但在被说服之前，她们想了解贺锦丽在经济和边境问题上的观点。

Ms. Harris’s recent interview on Fox News came during her most aggressive media tour as the Democratic nominee — just as early voting was beginning in many states.

贺锦丽最近接受福克斯新闻采访，正值她作为民主党总统候选人开展的最积极的媒体巡回之旅——当时许多州正在开始提前投票。

In one week, she appeared for interviews on “60 Minutes,” “The View,” Stephen Colbert’s late-night show, the “Call Her Daddy” podcast and Howard Stern’s radio show. It was a wide-ranging media blitz designed to break through to voters across her 0 to 100 “contactability” scale, spurred in part by Mr. Trump’s refusal to participate in a second debate.

在一周的时间内，她接受了《60分钟》(60 Minutes)和《观点》(The View)的采访，上了史蒂芬·科尔伯特的深夜节目，还上了播客节目《叫她爸爸》(Call Her Daddy)和霍华德·斯特恩的广播节目。这是一场范围广泛的媒体闪电战，旨在争取“可接触性”从0到100的所有人，部分原因是特朗普拒绝参加第二场辩论。

The Harris campaign methodically measured who saw her on each program. Internal surveys showed that two-thirds of undecided voters in the battleground states had consumed at least some of her interviews during the week. But in a sign of the fragmented media environment, and underscoring the challenge, no single program reached more than one in three of those undecided voters.

贺锦丽的竞选团队有条不紊地调查了每个节目中能够看到她的人数。内部调查显示，在关键州，三分之二尚未做出决定的选民在这一周至少观看了她的部分采访。但是，没有任何一个节目能接触到三分之一以上尚未决定的选民，这表明媒体环境是碎片化的，也凸显了她面临的挑战。

“They are very hard to reach — they are not watching traditional news platforms or other programming with large, mainstream audiences,” said Meg Schwenzfeier, the chief analytics officer for the Harris campaign. “To talk to them, we have to take a layered approach — we have to be on TV, nontraditional platforms, door-knocking, billboards, digital ads, mail — everything really.”

“很难触及他们——他们不看传统的新闻平台，也不看其他有大量主流受众的节目，”贺锦丽竞选团队的首席分析官梅格·施文兹费尔说。“为了向他们喊话，我们必须采取分层的方法——我们必须使用电视、非传统平台、上门拜访、广告牌、数字广告、邮件这些方法进行宣传——真的是所有这一切。”

The campaign’s data drove its decision to invest in advertising time during Fox News’s daytime programming, when more women are watching than in the evening, when opinion hosts draw an audience that skews male and less persuadable. It also factored into Ms. Harris’s interview on Fox News.

竞选团队的数据促使他们决定在福克斯新闻日间节目中投入广告时间，因为看日间节目的女性比看晚间节目的多，而晚间观点节目主持人吸引的观众主要是男性，并且不太容易被说服。贺锦丽接受福克斯新闻采访时也考虑到了这一点。

Trump’s targeted voters

特朗普的目标选民

The Trump campaign’s research found that up-for-grabs voters were about six times as likely as other battleground-state voters to be motivated by their views of Israel’s war in Gaza. The campaign also found that undecided voters were less likely to be white than those in the battlegrounds overall and more likely to be Black. About 25 percent of undecided voters are Black, according to the Trump team.

特朗普竞选团队的研究发现，摇摆不定的选民受以色列对加沙战争看法影响的可能性，是其他战场州选民的六倍左右。竞选团队还发现，与战场州的选民相比，未做决定的选民中白人比例较低，黑人比例较高。根据特朗普团队的数据，大约25%的未做决定选民是黑人。

“The fact that they don’t have younger Black men locked in with less than three weeks to Election Day is a big problem for them,” Mr. Blair, the Trump campaign’s political director, said of Ms. Harris and Democrats. “Historically, that would be part of their base.”

“在距离选举日不到三周的时间里，他们没有锁定年轻的黑人男性，这对他们来说是个大问题，”特朗普竞选团队的政治主管布莱尔在谈到贺锦丽和民主党人时说。“从历史上看，这本应是他们票仓的一部分。”

The Trump team’s research shows that undecided voters are particularly focused on the economy, and are often financially struggling. They are more likely to work two jobs, and on average they earn $15,000 less per household than the battleground voters who have made up their minds.

特朗普团队的研究表明，未做决定的选民特别关注经济，而且往往手头拮据。他们更有可能打两份工，平均每个家庭的收入比已经下定决心的战场州选民少1.5万美元。

About a quarter of the undecided voters in the Trump team’s research describe themselves as nonideological, and the campaign has for months studied what issues move them the most.

在特朗普团队的研究中，大约四分之一的未做决定选民称自己不关心意识形态，竞选团队几个月来一直在研究什么问题最能打动他们。

By late summer, voters targeted by the Trump campaign said they were most concerned about immigration and inflation, particularly the prices of groceries and housing. Not surprisingly, two of Ms. Harris’s first economic plans sought to directly address price-gouging on groceries and housing costs.

到夏末，特朗普竞选团队的目标选民表示，他们最关心的是移民和通货膨胀，尤其是食品杂货和住房价格。不出意外的是，贺锦丽的首批经济计划中有两项试图直接解决食品杂货的价格欺诈和住房成本问题。

Mr. Trump’s team typically tends to project bravado, and his aides believe that voters who made their decision in the last two months have tilted in his favor.

特朗普的团队通常倾向于虚张声势，他的助手认为，过去两个月做出决定的选民是向他这一方倾斜的。

In the campaign’s refreshed model, the Trump campaign moved 1.5 million voters out of the persuadable category and into its camp. It shifted just 924,000 to Ms. Harris’s side.

在竞选团队更新的模型中，特朗普的竞选团队将150万选民从“可说服”这一类别移到了自己的阵营，只把92.4万人移到了贺锦丽这边。

Where is there still room to grow?

还有哪些增长空间？

Jim Messina, who was the campaign manager for Mr. Obama’s 2012 re-election bid and is now the chairman of a Democratic super PAC, said he viewed the remaining undecided voters as fitting into two broad groups: young people and people of color in one, and suburban women in the other.

吉姆·梅西纳曾是奥巴马2012年连任竞选的经理，现在是民主党一个超级政治行动委员会的主席。他说，他认为剩下的未做决定选民可以分为两大类：一类是年轻人和有色人种，另一类是郊区女性。

“She now leads the suburbs, and this is where I think she has room to grow and he doesn’t, because these are the voters we’re talking about,” Mr. Messina said.

“她现在在郊区领先，我认为这里是她有增长空间的地方，而他没有，因为他们是我们说的那些选民，”梅西纳说。

Ruth Igielnik对本文有报道贡献。

Reid J. Epstein自华盛顿报道竞选活动和选举新闻。在2019年加入时报之前，他曾在《华尔街日报》、Politico、Newsday和《密尔沃基哨兵报》工作。点击查看更多关于他的信息。

Shane Goldmacher是时报美国政治的记者，报道2024年总统竞选活动，以及塑造美国政治的主要进展，趋势和力量。可以通过邮件联系他：shane.goldmacher@nytimes.com。点击查看更多关于他的信息。

翻译：晋其角

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