封锁引发民众抱怨，中国“清零”政策还能走多远？ - 纽约时报双语版
纽约时报双语版AMY QIN, AMY CHANG CHIEN2022年1月24日
In a glitzy Shanghai shopping district, about 40 people who happened to be at a Uniqlo store were informed that they would be spending the night there. A suspected Covid case had been traced to the shop.
在上海一个繁华的购物区，碰巧在一家优衣库购物的大约40人被告知他们需要在店内过夜。一名疑似感染新冠病毒的人被追溯到曾到过这家店。
Elsewhere in the same city, Anna Rudashko was told to return to an office building she had visited for a meeting the day before. She spent 58 hours there with more than 200 strangers, waiting for test results.
在上海的另一个地方，安娜·卢达什科被告知需返回她前一天参加过会议的那座办公楼。她在那里与200多名陌生人一起等待病毒检测结果，等了58个小时。
Across China, in Shaanxi Province, Zhao Xiaoqing was on a second date, visiting a man at his parents’ home, when the local authorities locked down the neighborhood. She quarantined with them for nearly 30 days. (Fortunately, she said, “I got along well with his family.”)
在远离上海的陕西省，赵晓青去一名男子的父母家第二次与他相亲的时候，当地政府对那家人所在的小区进行了封闭管理。她与他们一起隔离了近30天。（幸运的是，她说，“我和他家人相处得蛮好的。”）
China, which has largely kept the coronavirus at bay since 2020, is going to ever more extreme lengths to quell outbreaks that have proliferated around the country in recent weeks, and a growing number of people are finding their lives suddenly upended as a result.
自2020年起，中国就已基本上遏制了新冠病毒传播，在最近几周里，该国愈发不遗余力地扑灭全国各地出现的小规模疫情，结果越来越多的人发现自己的生活突然被打乱。
At least 20 million people in three cities were under full lockdown as recently as last week, and many more cities across the country have been subjected to partial lockdowns and mass testing. During the past month, at least 30 major Chinese cities have reported locally transmitted Covid cases.
就在上周，有三座城市的至少2000万人生活在全面封城之下，全国还有更多城市对部分小区采取封闭管理，进行大规模检测。在过去一个月里，至少有30个中国主要城市通报了新冠病毒本土感染病例。
The case numbers themselves are minuscule by global standards, and no Covid deaths have been reported in China’s current wave. On Friday, the health authorities reported a total of 23 new locally transmitted cases in five cities.
从全球情况来看，中国的确诊病例数量本身微不足道，此外，中国最近这波小规模暴发中尚未通报过任何死亡病例。据国家卫生健康委员会通报的最新情况，截至上周五，四个城市在24小时内总共有23例新确诊的本土感染病例。
But many cases have involved the highly transmissible Omicron variant, and with each passing day, the government’s dogged pursuit of “zero Covid” is looking harder to achieve. Many wonder how long it can be maintained without causing widespread, lasting disruptions to China’s economy and society.
但许多确诊病例感染的是传染性极高的奥密克戎变异株，随着时间的流失，政府坚持不懈追求的“清零”目标似乎越来越难以实现。许多人想知道，这个政策在对中国的经济和社会造成广泛、持久的破坏之前，还能坚持多久。
“At this point, it’s really almost like a last-ditch, or certainly very stubborn and persistent, effort to stave off the virus,” said Dali Yang, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago. “They are really stuck.”
“就目前而言，这个政策真的几乎像是遏制病毒的孤注一掷，至少肯定是非常固执和不懈的努力，”芝加哥大学政治学系教授杨大利说。“他们真的是骑虎难下。”
So far, the leadership has only doubled down on its strategy — which relies on mass testing, stringent border controls, extensive contact tracing and snap lockdowns — to extinguish nascent outbreaks.
中国领导层至今一直在加大这一政策的力度，用大规模病毒检测、严格的边境控制、广泛的接触者追踪，以及临时封锁等手段来遏制新的疫情暴发。
Adding to the sense of urgency, 24 locally transmitted cases have been discovered in Beijing, where the Winter Olympics are set to open in two weeks. Several neighborhoods have been sealed off, and the authorities have stepped up testing requirements for entering and leaving the capital. Officials said this week that Olympics tickets would not be sold to the public because of concerns about the virus.
让紧迫感进一步增加的是，北京已发现共计24例本土感染病例，冬季奥运会将于两周后在那里开幕。几个小区已被封闭管理，当局还加强了对进出首都的检测要求。官员们上周说，出于对新冠病毒的担忧，将不向公众出售奥运会门票。
北京一个私营的病毒检测点。The authorities have suggested that the first Omicron case in Beijing may have come from a package in Canada. They have since called on people across China to use caution when opening mail from overseas. In Beijing, mail is being subjected to at least four rounds of disinfection, even though experts say the risk of contracting the virus from surfaces, especially paper or cardboard, is very low.
当局暗示，北京的首例奥密克戎确诊病例也许与寄自加拿大的一个包裹有关。那之后，官员已呼吁全国各地的人们在打开来自海外的邮件时要格外小心。北京已在对来自海外的邮件进行至少四轮消毒，尽管专家说，触碰表面（尤其是纸或纸板）导致病毒感染的风险非常小。
西安一个物流中心在分拣包裹。中国官员表示新冠病毒能通过邮件传播，但专家称这种可能性极小。“It sounds unlikely to me, but I wouldn’t say it’s impossible,” said Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong. “I would certainly suggest that the authorities keep looking in case there’s other things that could maybe explain it.”
“在我看来，邮件传染病毒似乎不大可能，但我不会说这不可能，”香港大学流行病学家高本恩(Ben Cowling)说。“我当然会建议当局继续调查，也许能找到解释这例感染的其他原因。”
Chinese officials previously pushed the conspiracy theory that the virus had been brought to Wuhan, where it first emerged, by American military personnel. More recently, the central government blamed local officials in Xi’an for disruptions of food supplies and medical care when the city of 13 million was locked down in December.
中国官员以前推动过一个阴谋论，认为新冠病毒是美国军人带到武汉的，那里是最早出现新冠病毒的地方。最近，中央政府批评了西安市地方官员，因为他们去年12月对这座有1300万人口的城市进行封城后，造成食品供应和医疗服务出现混乱。
“Beijing is finding it increasingly difficult to defend its Covid-zero policy,” said Lynette H. Ong, a professor of political science at the University of Toronto. “The costs are rising so high that they are starting to put the blame not only on local officials, but also on foreigners — it’s never the central policymakers’ fault.”
“中国政府正在发现，为‘清零’政策辩护已变得越来越难，”多伦多大学政治学系教授王惠玲(Lynette H. Ong)说。“代价变得如此之高，以至于他们不仅正在将责任推卸到地方官员身上， 也在将责任推卸到外国人身上，有错的从来都不是中央的政策制定者。”
政府和社区工作者准备给西安民众发放生活必需品。Many in China support the zero-Covid strategy, which may have saved hundreds of thousands of lives and which has allowed most people to live fairly normally during the pandemic. But the recent outbreaks have led to frustration and grumbling as more and more people have been caught up in the virus-control dragnet.
中国很多人支持“清零”政策，该政策也许挽救了数十万人的生命，让大多数人在疫情期间能够相当正常地生活。但随着越来越多的人被拉网式病毒控制措施所困，疫情最近的零星暴发已引发了沮丧和抱怨之声。
This month, Lilian Lin, 29, was forced to suspend her modest online business selling basic goods like towels and stationery after she was locked down in her apartment in the northern city of Tianjin over a cluster of cases in the neighborhood.
本月，由于北部城市天津一个社区里发现了一小群感染病例，29岁的丽莲·林所在的住宅小区被封闭管理，她被迫临时让自己在网上销售毛巾和文具等基本用品的网店停业。
To make matters worse, going home for the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday looks increasingly unlikely: Restrictions have also been imposed in her hometown, the central city of Zhengzhou.
让事情变得更糟的是，农历新年期间回家过年看来越来越不可能了：她老家所在地河南郑州也已经实行封闭管理。
“I know others have it worse,” said Ms. Lin, who had been in her apartment for more than 10 days and counting, with only her plants for company. “But I’m so tired of the endless lockdowns.”
“我知道有人更惨，但一直封城真的让人倦怠，”林女士说，她已经10多天没出家门了，而且不知道什么时候才能出门，陪伴她的只有家里的绿植。
民众在北京附近的港口城市天津排队做病毒检测。In Xi’an and other cities, officials said this week that restrictions would soon be eased because case numbers were falling. But in the longer term, there is concern that China, the last major country to hold fast to a zero-Covid strategy, may have backed itself into a corner.
西安和其他城市的官员上周已表示，由于病例数下降，限制性措施不久将放松（西安市已宣布自1月24日起恢复正常出行，复工复产——编注）。但从长远来看，一种担心是，作为最后一个坚守清零战略的主要国家，中国可能已将自己逼到了墙角。
While more than 80 percent of the population — over 1.2 billion people — has had at least two vaccine doses, most received Chinese-made vaccines, which studies have found to provide little defense against Omicron infections. Experts speculate that China’s leaders may be holding out for a more effective vaccine or therapeutic, or waiting for a milder strain of the virus to emerge.
虽然中国80%以上的人口（逾12亿人）已接种了至少两剂疫苗（大多数人接种的是国产疫苗），但研究发现，国产疫苗几乎不提供对奥密克戎变异株的抵抗力。专家推测，中国领导人可能是在等待国内研发更有效的疫苗或治疗方法，或是在等待导致更轻症状的病毒变异株的出现。
Until then, analysts say, the increasing complaints are unlikely to persuade Beijing to change its Covid policy. Eurasia Group, a consultancy, recently put China’s zero-tolerance strategy at the top of its list of political risks for the year, suggesting that it would ultimately backfire for the country and roil the global economy.
这些分析人士表示，在那之前，越来越多的抱怨不大可能会说服中国政府改变其新冠病毒政策。最近，咨询公司欧亚集团已将中国的“清零”战略列为政府今年面临的首要政治风险，指出该政策最终会给中国带来事与愿违的后果，并扰乱全球经济。
“The most successful policy battling the virus has become the least,” wrote the report’s authors, Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan.
“最成功的抵抗病毒政策已变成最不成功的政策，”欧亚集团报告的作者伊恩·布雷默和克里夫·库普坎写道。
Stories emerging from the lockdowns have ranged from the tragic, like the people denied medical care in Xi’an, to the absurd and even the endearing.
封城故事里有悲剧（比如被医院拒绝提供医疗服务的西安患者），也有荒诞甚至温馨故事。
Ms. Zhao, 28, had met Zhao Fei only once, on a blind date, before visiting his family’s home in the city of Xianyang in Shaanxi Province last month. The authorities’ snap lockdown kept her there for four weeks and, it seems, changed both of their lives. She said he slowly won her heart, and they plan to be engaged soon.
现年28岁的赵晓青上个月去赵飞位于陕西咸阳的家中第二次相亲之前，只见过赵飞一次，第一次见面是别人为他们安排的首次相亲。当局的紧急封闭管理迫使她在咸阳住了四周，也改变了两人的人生。赵晓青说，赵飞慢慢地赢得了她的心，他们打算不久订婚。
“Lots of friends were curious about whether the blind date was a success,” a beaming Ms. Zhao said in a video on the social network Douyin last week. “Of course, it was.”
“很多朋友都好奇我有没有相亲成功，”笑容满面的赵晓青在上周发在社交媒体抖音的一段视频中说。“当然相亲成功了。”
Others have had less pleasant experiences.
其他人的经历却不那么愉快。
37岁的安娜·卢达什科在上海一栋办公楼过夜，她曾在那栋楼里开过一次会。她和几百人接到了返回该楼接受病毒检测和隔离的命令。Ms. Rudashko, 37, of Shanghai, was getting ready for bed last Friday when she received an email from her employer. The day before, she had gone to an office building where she doesn’t work for an hourlong meeting, and now she was being told to return there for testing and a brief quarantine. Someone who had been exposed to a person with Covid had been on the same floor of the building, on a different day.
现年37岁的卢达什科住在上海，她上周五正准备上床睡觉时，收到了雇主发来的电子邮件。一天前，她曾去过一幢不是她办公室所在的办公大楼参加一场一小时的会议，现在她被告知要返回那座办公大楼做病毒检测，并接受短暂的隔离。一名与确诊患者有过接触的人曾在不同的一天去过该楼的同一层。
Ms. Rudashko spent that night, and the next, in the office with more than 200 people she didn’t know. For 58 hours, they played cards, watched movies, drank wine and munched on cold cuts from an Italian restaurant. Ms. Rudashko slept in a sleeping bag on a windowsill in the office kitchen. One person brought a tent; a couple brought their dog. There were no showers.
卢达什科在那座大楼里与200多名陌生人度过了那个夜晚，以及又一个夜晚。他们用打扑克、看视频、喝红酒、吃一家意大利餐馆的外卖冷盘打发了58个小时的时间。卢达什科用睡袋在办公楼厨房的一个窗台上睡觉。有人带来了一顶帐篷；一对夫妻带来了他们的狗。没有洗澡的地方。
“The mood was ‘It is what it is, so let’s just make the most of it,’” Ms. Rudashko, now in the middle of a 12-day mandatory home quarantine, said by telephone.
“人们当时的心情是，‘没别的办法，大家只能将就一下，’”卢达什科在电话中说。她被强制进行12天的居家隔离，现在刚过了一半时间。
She said the person thought to have been exposed to the virus had ultimately tested negative. The experience left Ms. Rudashko feeling that China’s Covid policy was “unrealistic.”
她说，被认为曾与确诊感染者接触的那个人最终的病毒检测结果为阴性。这段经历给卢达什科的感觉是，中国应对新冠病毒的政策“不现实”。
“They’re really trying for zero but it’s not happening,” she said. “And it just feels like there’s no end in sight.”
“他们的确在努力清零，但这不可能，”她说。“给人的感觉是看不到尽头。”
John Liu对本文有报道贡献。
Amy Qin是《纽约时报》国际记者，负责报道中国文化、政治和社会之间的交汇。欢迎在Twitter上关注她：@amyyqin。
Amy Chang Chien在台湾为《纽约时报》报道中国大陆和台湾新闻。欢迎在Twitter上关注她：@amy_changchien。
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