北京封城可能性引发供应链混乱担忧 - 纽约时报双语版
纽约时报双语版ANA SWANSON2022年4月26日
The prospect of further lockdowns in China prompted a fresh wave of economic anxiety on Monday as investors and companies whose supply chains run through China contemplated the impact of 70 new virus cases that the Beijing government said it had detected over the weekend.
周一，中国进一步封锁的可能性引发了新一轮的经济焦虑。北京市政府表示在周末发现了70例新增病例，投资者以及一些供应链贯穿中国的企业正在衡量这一消息的影响。
The city government ordered one of its districts to test all 3.5 million of its residents for coronavirus in the coming days, a move that may be a prelude to a larger lockdown in China’s capital city. Shanghai, a major port and business center, has been locked down for roughly a month, part of China’s “zero Covid” strategy. Other Chinese cities both large and small have announced their own restrictions on the movement of residents in a bid to keep the virus from spreading.
市政府下令其中一个区在未来数天对所有350万居民进行新冠病毒检测，此举可能预示着中国的首都即将开始更大规模的封锁。作为中国清零战略的一部分，主要港口和商业中心上海已被封锁了大约一个月。中国其他大大小小的城市都宣布了对居民流动的限制，以防止病毒传播。
The lockdowns present yet another challenge for global supply chains that have been stressed by pandemic shutdowns and the war in Ukraine, leading to greater competition for goods and higher prices that are fueling inflation worldwide.
全球供应链已经因大流行停工和乌克兰战争而备受压力，封锁又带来了进一步挑战，导致商品竞争加剧和价格上涨，助长了全球通胀。
While the Chinese authorities have sought to keep factories and especially ports operating by keeping workers on the premises in so-called closed-loop systems, the lockdowns have interrupted shipments and lengthened delivery times for many of the global companies that depend on Chinese factories.
尽管中国当局试图通过所谓的闭环系统让工人住在上班地点来保持工厂、尤其是港口的运转，但许多依赖中国工厂的全球企业的运输中断，延长了交货时间。
Phil Levy, the chief economist at Flexport, a freight forwarder, said in an email that while Beijing is an important city, “it is not at the heart of factory production or supply chain operations.” He said lockdowns there would have a more limited impact than previous restrictions in Shanghai and Guangdong, where ports continued to mostly operate.
货运代理公司飞协博的首席经济学家菲尔·利维在一封电子邮件中表示，虽然北京是一座重要城市，但“它并不是工厂生产或供应链运营的核心”。他说，之前在上海和广东的封锁中，港口基本未停止运转，与此相比，北京的封锁影响有限。
But the effects would depend on where outbreaks occurred — for example whether they shut down a port — and how long lockdowns persisted, Mr. Levy added. “This is a relatively slow part of the year, but there is plenty of catch-up to be done, and things will soon be due to build. The costs will mount the longer this lasts.”
但利维补充说，影响的大小取决于疫情的暴发地点——例如他们会不会关闭某个港口——以及封锁持续多长时间。“眼下是一年中相对清闲的时候，但还是有很多赶工要做，并且很快有很多东西需要建设。这种情况持续的时间越长，成本就会越高。”
The disruptions that are still unfolding in Shanghai and other Chinese cities are likely to reverberate along global supply chains in the coming months. Andrea Huang, a senior director at Overhaul, which monitors company supply chains, said with lockdowns not expected to ease until early or mid-May, the ripple effects for industries like auto and consumer electronics would extend into June or July.
上海和中国其他城市的中断还没有结束，可能会在未来几个月内影响全球供应链。Overhaul是一家监测企业供应链的公司，其高级主管安德里亚·黄（音）表示，由于预计要到5月初或中旬才会放松封锁，汽车和消费电子等行业的连锁反应将延续到6月或7月。
In Shanghai, the local authorities on Friday selected some companies in the automotive, semiconductor and other key industries to restart production, but the vast majority of enterprises remain shuttered.
在上海，地方当局上周五在汽车、半导体等重点行业中选择了部分企业复工复产，但绝大多数企业仍处于停产状态。
Activity at the port has also slowed. According to data from Project44, a logistics platform, the number of vessels that were berthing at the Shanghai port last week had dropped by about half since the lockdown began, while the number of vessels seeking to call at the nearby port of Ningbo jumped as shipping companies tried to get around restrictions. The time that imported containers were spending in the port had also risen sharply, from 4.6 days on March 28 to 14 days on April 23, the company said, as coronavirus testing requirements for truck drivers limited the ability to get containers in and out of the port.
港口的活动也已放缓。物流平台Project44的数据显示，自封城开始以来，上周停靠上海港的船舶数量减少了约一半，而航运公司试图绕过限制，导致寻求停靠附近宁波港的船舶数量激增。该平台表示，由于对卡车司机的检测要求限制了集装箱进出港口的能力，进口集装箱在港口的平均停留时间也急剧增加，从3月28日的4.6天上升到4月23日的14天。
Fears of broader lockdowns weighed on global stocks on Monday, while oil and other commodities also fell in anticipation of lower demand.
周一，人们对更大范围封锁的担忧影响了全球股市，而石油和其他大宗商品价格也因预期需求下降而下跌。
Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, chief international economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that, in addition to disrupting global supply chains and fueling inflation, coronavirus outbreaks and accompanying lockdowns had undermined Chinese economic growth in March and April, making China unlikely to reach its target of 5.5 percent growth in gross domestic product in 2022.
标准普尔全球市场情报首席国际经济学家伊丽莎白·沃尔布鲁克-罗查表示，除了扰乱全球供应链和助长通胀外，新冠病毒的暴发和随之而来的封锁措施削弱了中国3月和4月的经济增长，使中国不太可能实现其2022年国内生产总值增长5.5%的目标。
The epicenter of the outbreak shifted from Jilin Province in the northeast to Shanghai, a manufacturing base for high-end auto components, but smaller-scale outbreaks in other regions have largely been brought under control, she wrote in a note.
她在一份情况说明中写道，疫情中心从东北的吉林省转移到了高端汽车零部件的制造基地上海，但其他地区的小规模疫情已基本得到控制。
Ana Swanson是时报驻华盛顿记者，负责报道贸易和国际经济新闻。她此前在《华盛顿邮报》工作，报道贸易、美联储和经济新闻。欢迎在Twitter上关注她：@AnaSwanson。
翻译：纽约时报中文网
本文章由 flowerss 抓取自RSS，版权归源站点所有。