世卫组织高级官员：奥密克戎为疫情常态化带来希望 - 纽约时报双语版
纽约时报双语版BENJAMIN MUELLER, MARC SANTORA2022年1月25日
The astonishing spread of the Omicron variant could help set the stage for the pandemic to transition from overwhelming to manageable in Europe this year, a top health official said on Monday, potentially offering the world a glimpse at how countries can ease restrictions while keeping the virus at bay.
一名高级卫生官员周一表示，奥密克戎变异株以惊人的速度传播，这可能有助于让欧洲的疫情从不堪重负过渡到可控的程度，全世界或许得以一瞥如何在控制病毒传播的同时放松限制。
That hint of hope came with a heavy dose of caution: Immunity from the surge of infections will probably wane, and new variants are likely to emerge, leaving the world vulnerable to surges that could strain health systems. In the United States, where vaccination rates are lower and death rates are considerably higher than in Western Europe, there are bigger hurdles on the path to taming the pandemic.
这种充满希望的暗示也伴随着极度的谨慎：这一波激增的感染带来的免疫力可能会减弱，新的变异株很可能将出现，这会导致全世界都容易出现感染激增，给卫生系统带来压力。相较于西欧，美国的疫苗接种率较低，而病死率明显更高，因此在遏制疫情传播的道路上存在着更大的阻碍。
Dr. Hans Kluge, the director for the World Health Organization’s European region, warned in a statement released Monday that it was too early for nations to drop their guard, with so many people unvaccinated around the world. But, he said, between vaccination and natural immunity through infection, “Omicron offers plausible hope for stabilization and normalization.”
世界卫生组织欧洲区域主任汉斯·克鲁格在周一发布的声明中警告，各国放松警惕还为时过早，因为全世界有太多人没有接种疫苗。但他表示，在疫苗免疫和感染产生的自然免疫的相互作用下，“奥密克戎为疫情的稳定化和常态化带来了可能的希望。”
The question that remains, however, is what a new normal looks like — a picture that would have seemed disastrous in 2019 could be a big improvement in 2022 — and how long it could last.
然而问题始终在于，新常态会是什么样子——在2019年看来是灾难的景象，到2022年可能是大为好转的情况——以及它能持续多久。
The Omicron variant will undoubtedly leave behind much higher levels of immunity in the population, scientists said. But whether the world will have to endure deadly and disruptive future surges of the virus before the pandemic stabilizes is not at all clear.
科学家表示，奥密克戎变异株毫无疑问会在人群中留下更高水平的免疫力。但在疫情稳定之前，还不清楚未来全球是否将不得不忍受致命和破坏性的感染激增。
And while Dr. Kluge said he believed that Europe could withstand new waves without resorting to lockdowns, countries there are still working to determine what other measures they may use. New antiviral pills are more readily available in Europe than in other parts of the world, scientists said, but countries still need to administer them more quickly.
虽然克鲁格表示，他相信欧洲可以在不采取封锁措施的情况下抵御新一波疫情，但欧洲各国仍难以确定可能采取何种其他措施。科学家称，欧洲比世界其他地方更容易获得抗病毒药物，但欧洲各国仍需加快此类药物的配给。
Experts said that precautions like testing and isolating would remain essential. And if coronaviruses cases climb in the coming winters, scientists said, short-term mask mandates could be a way of suppressing cases to help hospitals dealing with other respiratory illnesses, too.
专家表示，检测和隔离等防范措施仍然至关重要。科学家称，如果新冠病毒感染在未来的冬季攀升，佩戴口罩的短期强制令可能会是抑制感染的一种办法，这也有助于医院应对其他呼吸道疾病。
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the W.H.O., said on Monday that the emergency phase of the pandemic was still very much here.
世卫组织总干事谭德塞周一表示，疫情的紧急阶段仍然没有过去。
“It’s dangerous to assume that Omicron will be the last variant or that we are in the endgame,” Dr. Tedros said at an executive board meeting of the organization. “On the contrary, globally, the conditions are ideal for more variants to emerge.”
“认为奥密克戎将是最后的变异株，或是认为我们已经进入疫情的最后阶段，是非常危险的想法，”谭德塞在该组织的一次执行董事会会议上表示。“相反，在全球范围内，出现更多变异株的条件已经成熟。”
Over the past two years, people around the world have become exhaustingly familiar with the wicked way the virus evolves and confounds expectations. Last fall, with vaccination spreading and the Delta variant waning, there were predictions of a return to normal — only for the world to be blindsided by Omicron.
过去两年，全球民众已经疲惫不堪地适应了这种病毒的危险进化及其对各种预期的颠覆。去年秋天，随着疫苗的普及和德尔塔变异株的逐渐消失，曾有预测说一切将恢复常态——结果，奥密克戎令全世界猝不及防。
No previous variant has spread nearly as fast as Omicron, with reported coronavirus cases rocketing from about 600,000 a day worldwide in early December to more than three million a day now. (Case numbers are largely thought to be an undercount given issues with access to testing and the use of at-home tests that may not always be officially reported.)
奥密克戎的传播速度比此前变异株均高出一截，全球报告的新冠病例从12月初的每日约60万例激增至现在的每日300多万例。（由于检测的获得和家庭检测的使用方面存在问题，这些检测结果可能并不总被算进官方报告的数字，因此病例数在很大程度上被认为是少报的。）
Even as those figures level off in much of Europe and the United States, in places where Omicron is just gaining a foothold, the known number of new infections is staggering.
尽管欧洲和美国大部分地区的感染病例数趋于稳定，但在奥密克戎刚开始传播不久的地方，已知的新感染病例数仍是惊人的。
Germany’s health minister, Karl Lauterbach, said that he expected infections to peak in mid-February, with as many as 600,000 new cases per day. Omicron is also just now spreading across Eastern and Central Europe, including in many countries with low vaccination rates.
德国卫生部长卡尔·劳特巴赫表示，2月中旬预计将出现感染高峰，届时每日新增病例将达到60万之多。奥密克戎目前也在东欧和中欧蔓延，包括在许多疫苗接种率较低的国家。
And countries across Asia that have pursued a “zero-Covid” policy with stringent lockdowns will face steep challenges preventing outbreaks of Omicron.
而在预防奥密克戎暴发的问题上，推行“清零”政策、采取严厉封锁措施的亚洲各国将面临严峻挑战。
But the very speed and breadth of the Omicron surge has also left some public health officials cautiously optimistic about how quickly countries can emerge from the latest wave. The sharp rise in cases in places already overrun by Omicron has often been followed by a remarkable decline, as in South Africa and Britain.
但奥密克戎暴发传播的速度之快、范围之广，也让一些公共卫生官员对各国从最新一波疫情中复苏的速度持谨慎乐观的态度。在已经全是奥密克戎感染的地方，如南非和英国，感染数飙升之后往往会出现显著下降。
“We know that increased vaccination and infection are strengthening our defenses against Covid,” Thomas Frieden, a former chief of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, wrote Monday on Twitter. “I’m more optimistic about our ability to tame the pandemic than at any point since its emergence.”
“我们都知道，疫苗接种和感染的增加正在加强我们对新冠病毒的抵抗力，”美国疾病控制和预防中心前主任托马斯·弗里登周一在Twitter上写道。“自疫情出现以来，我对我们控制住疫情的能力比以往任何时候都要乐观。”
“Unless, of course, a worse variant emerges, with the infectivity of Omicron and as deadly as Delta,” he added.
“当然，除非出现一种更严重的变异株，具备奥密克戎一样的传染性和德尔塔一样的致命性，”他补充道。
In the United States, Omicron cases appear to have crested in the Northeast, parts of the Upper Midwest and other areas where it first arrived, while nationally, new cases and hospital admissions have leveled off in recent days.
在美国，奥密克戎病例集中暴发在东北部、上中西部部分地区和其他该变异株最初传播开的地方。而在全国范围内，最近几天的新感染数和入院数已趋于平稳。
Still, hospitals in other areas across the country remain overstretched, straining to handle patients after multiple surges and staffing shortages, including in Mississippi, where nearly all of the state’s acute-care hospitals have been pushed to capacity. And new deaths remain high.
尽管如此，全美其他地区的医院仍在超负荷运转，在经历了多次感染激增和人手短缺之后难以接收病人，其中包括密西西比州，该州几乎所有急诊医院都已人满为患。而新增死亡人数仍高居不下。
In the United States, 37 percent of people are not fully vaccinated, compared with 25 percent in Western Europe. Three-quarters of the U.S. population has not had a booster shot, versus half of Western Europeans.
美国有37%的人口没有完全接种疫苗，而在西欧，这一比例为25%。四分之三的美国人没打过加强针，而西欧只有一半人口没打。
Devi Sridhar, the head of the global public health program at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland, said that the number and concentration of unvaccinated people in parts of the United States put the country in a more dangerous position than well-vaccinated parts of Europe, where the return of normalcy was underway.
苏格兰爱丁堡大学全球公共卫生项目负责人德维·斯里达尔说，美国部分地区未接种疫苗的人数和集中程度使美国比欧洲接种疫苗良好的地区更加危险，在欧洲的那些地区，生活正在回归正常。
“In these countries, we’re getting to what I think of as the beginning of the end, and we have the tools to manage it,” she said. “We have to shift to the next chapter of this pandemic, and move from an emergency crisis to one which is more sustainable.”
“在这些国家，我们正在开始接近我所认为的终点，我们有管理它的工具，”她说。“我们必须进入这场大流行的下一个阶段，从紧急危机转向更为可持续的危机。”
With England in the midst of lifting almost all remaining coronavirus restrictions and Spain’s prime minister telling citizens to “learn to live” with the virus, Europe offers hints of what could lie ahead, Dr. Sridhar said.
斯里达尔说，英国正在取消几乎所有剩下的新冠病毒限制，西班牙首相告诉公民要“学会与病毒共存”，欧洲为未来可能出现的情况提供了线索。
“Many countries are looking at us to see what the next stage looks like,” she said. “Can we find a way to manage this as we head into spring and summer, or are we in for another surprise?”
“许多国家都在关注我们，看下一阶段会是什么样子，”她说。“在春季和夏季到来之际，我们能找到一种方法来处理这个问题吗？还是我们将迎来另一次震惊？”
As research has emerged that Omicron causes less severe disease and vaccines remain protective against the worst outcomes, some public health experts have encouraged less focus on cases and more emphasis on hospitalizations amid record-breaking spikes.
随着研究显示，奥密克戎导致的疾病不那么严重，而且疫苗仍能预防最坏的结果，一些公共卫生专家鼓励在创纪录的病例高峰期中少关注病例，多关注入院情况。
But scientists have also cautioned that the protection offered by a previous infection may wane over time, and may not apply as well to future versions of the virus. Infection with Delta, for example, offered minimal protection against Omicron.
但科学家们也警告说，以前的感染所提供的保护可能会随着时间的推移而减弱，也可能不适用于未来版本的病毒。例如，感染德尔塔变异株对奥密克戎变异株的保护作用微乎其微。
New fast-spreading variants will most likely emerge, scientists said. And there is no reason to believe that they will only be milder.
科学家说，新的快速传播的变异株很可能会出现。没有理由相信它们只会变得更温和。
Eventually, scientists believe that the coronavirus will become endemic — a permanent part of the disease landscape — and start circulating at more predictable levels. How serious a threat it poses at that stage will depend in large part on what levels of illness countries decide to tolerate and how hospitals manage to cope.
最终，科学家们认为，新冠病毒将成为一种地方传播性疾病——成为疾病版图的永久组成部分——并开始在更可预测的水平上传播。在那个阶段，它所构成的威胁有多严重，将在很大程度上取决于各国决定容忍何种程度的疾病，以及医院如何应对。
That stage of the pandemic appears some way off, scientists say.
科学家们说，大流行要发展到那样的阶段似乎还有一段时间。
As new variants burn through the population and more people are vaccinated, the virus will face more pressure to evolve in ways that allow it to infect even people with a measure of immunity, scientists said. Predicting the next variant may be as difficult as it had been to predict Omicron.
科学家们说，随着新的变异株在人群中蔓延，越来越多的人接种了疫苗，这种病毒将面临更大的压力，迫使其进化，即使具有一定免疫力的人也能被感染。预测下一个变种可能像预测奥密克戎一样困难。
“Expect the next variant to come out of left field,” said Jeremy Kamil, a virologist at Louisiana State University Health Shreveport. He added, “It’d be a hugely foolish thing for anyone to speak with excessive certainty about what’s coming in the next two years.”
“预计下一个变种将会令人意外地出现，”路易斯安那州立大学卫生学院的病毒学家杰里米·卡米尔说。他还说，“任何人如果对未来两年的情况过于确定，都是非常愚蠢的。”
Dr. Kluge, of the W.H.O., echoed those concerns on Monday, but said that Europe was in a much better place to deal with what might come. Commenting two years after the first confirmed coronavirus case in Europe, he offered a mix of caution and optimism and urged people to pay attention to other urgent health issues beyond the coronavirus.
世卫组织的克鲁格周一也表达了同样的担忧，但他表示，欧洲在应对可能发生的情况方面要比美国好得多。在欧洲出现首例新冠病毒确诊病例两年后，他发表了谨慎而乐观的评论，并敦促人们关注新冠病毒以外的其他紧急健康问题。
“The pandemic is far from over, but I am hopeful we can end the emergency phase in 2022 and address other health threats that urgently require our attention,” Dr. Kluge said. “Backlogs and waiting lists have grown, essential health services have been disrupted, and plans and preparations for climate-related health stresses and shocks have been put on hold.”
“大流行还远未结束，但我希望我们能在2022年结束紧急阶段，并解决其他迫切需要我们关注的健康威胁，”克鲁格说。“积压和等候名单增加，基本卫生服务中断，应对气候相关健康压力和冲击的计划和准备工作被搁置。”
Benjamin Mueller是报道健康和科学议题的记者，他曾自伦敦报道新冠疫情、自纽约报道执法相关新闻。欢迎在Twitter上关注他：@benjmueller。
Marc Santora是驻伦敦的国际新闻编辑，专注于报道突发新闻。他曾担任时报驻华沙的东欧和中欧分社社长，也曾广泛报道伊拉克和非洲的议题。欢迎在Twitter上关注他：@MarcSantoraNYT。
翻译：Harry Wong、晋其角
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