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The Bitcoin/US Dollar pair has been bearish since it generated a lower high of $17,178 on January 5, 2018. That means that the pair has been in bear territory for six months now. Recently, it recorded a new 2018 low of $5,777.00 and broke the $6,000 long term support. This triggered numerous stop losses. Predictions for a move down to $3,000 levels reverberated all over the internet.

Along with these doom and gloom forecasts were articles preaching that Bitcoin is dead. It appears that fear has gripped the market as blood ran on the streets and for good reason. Bitcoin lost over 70% of its value from its peak of $19891.99. However, experience has shown me time and time again that a bottom is in place when participants have lost all hope in the market. We have technicals on our side to support this view.

Technical analysis show that BTC/USD is currently carving a bottom at $5,800 – $6,000. As you can see on the chart below, the pair has created three falling wedges inside one large falling wedge. Three is the key number here because bear or bull runs often come to an end after three pushes. If you can zoom in on the most recent wedge, you will see that BTC/USD has formed three bearish pennants. Exhaustion is usually the case after the third push.

Also, indicators are flashing bullish signals. We can see bullish divergence on the RSI and MACD. Consider these signals and it is not farfetched to think that the move below $6,000 is a false breakout.

The strategy is to buy as close to the retest of $5,800 as possible. If bulls succeed on defending the support, it will be the start of an aggressive bull run that will initially take the pair to our target of $8,000.

The process may take a month.

Daily Chart of BTC/USD on Coinbase

As of this writing, the BTC/USD pair is trading at $6,079.47 on Coinbase.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: As close to $5,800 as possible.

Target: $8,000

Stop: $5,550

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Kiril Nikolaev

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Kiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.

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Trade Recommendation: CAD/SGD

Published 1 day ago on June 26, 2018

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The Canadian Dollar/Singapore Dollar pair (CAD/SGD) started its downtrend in August 2010 when it took out support of 1.30. This triggered the large head and shoulders pattern on the monthly chart. The breakout led to a waterfall event that saw the pair drop to as low as 0.98079 in January 2016. In five and a half years, the Canadian Dollar lost almost 25% of its value against the Singapore Dollar.

At this point, CAD/SGD began to build a base at 1.02. The pair consolidated for about a year and a half. It then showed signs of life in the third quarter of 2017 when it went as high as 1.11455. The market has been dropping since but this could be your chance to buy the bottom.

Technical analysis reveal that CAD/SGD appears to have recovered from a false breakdown of 1.02 support. The recovery was affirmed by a strong rally to 1.05154 in May 2018. While the pair pulled back, bulls responded by confirming the 1.02 support with a bullish pin bar. In addition, the 4-day, 8-day, and 21-day moving averages are all detached from the weekly candle. This is a hint that a bounce is on the horizon.

The strategy is to buy as close to 1.02 support as possible. As long as bulls preserve this support, they will ignite a rally to our target of 1.10.

The process may take more than three months.

Weekly Chart of Canadian Dollar/Singapore Dollar on OANDA

As of this writing, the Canadian Dollar/Singapore Dollar pair (CAD/SGD) is trading at 1.02311 on OANDA.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: As close to 1.02 support as possible.

Target: 1.10

Stop: Close below 1.015.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

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Kiril Nikolaev

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Trade Recommendation: Ethereum Classic

Published 2 days ago on June 26, 2018

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The Ethereum Classic/US Dollar pair (ETC/USD) started a bull run on November 27, 2017 when it took out resistance of $23. This triggered the rounding bottom pattern on the daily chart. The breakout attracted so much momentum that the pair went as high as $47.296 on January 14, 2018. In about a month and a half, ETC/USD grew by over 105%.

At this point, the target of the rounding bottom pattern was achieved. Consequently, those who bought the breakout took profits. The heavy selling drove the pair to as low as $12.966 on April 6. At this price level, ETC/USD lost over 72% of its value from the top.

With a bottom in place, the pair rallied. It went as high as $25.647 on May 6. Bears may have defended the $23 resistance as the ETC/USD pulled back. However, this can be your chance to buy the bottom.

Technical analysis show that ETC/USD is respecting support of $13. This view comes after the pair went was low as $12 on June 10 but bulls preserved the support. In addition, the support was confirmed on June 24 when the pair dropped to $13.15 and then the market bounced with good volume.

The strategy is to buy as close to $13 as possible. As long as the pair is above this level, bulls have the momentum they need to move to our target of $23.

The process may take a month.

Daily Chart of ETC/USD on Kraken

As of this writing, the ETC/USD pair is trading at $15.6 on Kraken.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: As close to $13 as possible.

Target: $23

Stop: $12

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

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Kiril Nikolaev

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Trade Recommendation: Short USD/ZAR

Published 2 days ago on June 26, 2018

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The US Dollar/South African Rand pair (USD/ZAR) started to look bearish in May 2016 when it generated a lower high of 15.98236. Since then, the pair has been generating a series of lower highs and lower lows. The most recent lower low came in February 2018 when it dropped to 11.50776. In a couple of years, the US Dollar lost 28% of its value against the South African Rand.

At this price level, the pair was flashing signs of a bounce. It hovered above oversold territory on the weekly chart. On top of that, volume surged when the pair hit the 11.50 mark. This indicated that bulls were buying the market.

The increased demand catapulted USD/ZAR to as high as 13.91618 in June 2018. Unfortunately for buyers at this level, it looks like the pair will not continue its rally.

Technical analysis reveal that USD/ZAR is respecting the 13.55 resistance. This view comes after the pair printed a long shooting star candle on the weekly chart. This tells us that those who bought at 11.50 levels are taking profits. On top of that, the weekly candle is detached from the 4-day, 8-day, and 21-day moving averages. This suggests that the rally is not sustainable.

The strategy is to short the market as close to 13.55 as possible. If bears can hold on to the resistance, they will send the market to our initial target of 12.50.

The process may take a month.

Weekly Chart of US Dollar/South African Rand on OANDA

As of this writing, the US Dollar/South African Rand pair (USD/ZAR) is trading at 13.54252 on OANDA.

Summary of Strategy

Buy: Short the market as close to 13.55 as possible.

Target: 12.50

Stop: Close above 13.70.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

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Kiril Nikolaev

3.7 stars on average, based on 184 rated posts