It was a surprisingly strong weekend at the box office, no thanks to the new releases. Split easily won with $25.66 million over the weekend, well ahead of A Dog’s Purpose, which earned second place with $18.22 million. Resident Evil: The Final Chapter got off to a fast start, but collapsed over the rest of the weekend. Finally, the less said about Gold the better. Overall, the box office was really strong with $141 million. Granted, this was 2.5% lower than last week, but it was 1.3% better than the same weekend last year. This growth is entirely due to Split’s hold plus the Oscar bounce a number of films got. Year-to-date, 2017 has earned $929 million, which is 4.7% lower than last year’s pace of $975 million. It is still too soon to make any real predictions for 2017’s long term success. That said, 2017 did cut into 2016’s lead and it is now down by $46 million or 4.7%. An impressive decline of 34% in its second weekend and a crop of middling to poor performances by new releases will be enough to keep Split safely at the top of the box office chart this weekend.
With Universal projecting $26.3 million for the weekend as of Sunday morning, Split is well ahead of the studio’s new release, A Dog’s Purpose, which will come in with around $18.4 million. Split will finish the weekend with around $78 million in total. Resident Evil: The Final Chapter opened with $1 million in previews on Thursday, easily topping the competition. It was only half as much as Split managed last weekend, but if The Final Chapter earned half as much during its opening weekend, the studio would be very happy. That seems unlikely, as this is the latest installment in a franchise, so it should be more front-loaded as a result. Additionally, its reviews are much weaker than Split’s are, so the word of mouth won’t be as strong. That said, we predicted just over $17 million and we’re sticking with that for now. It is not a good week at the box office. There are two films opening at saturation level theaters counts, 3,000 or more theaters, and both have a shot at first place.
A Dog’s Purpose was expected to win with relative ease, but recent controversy, and weak reviews, have put that in doubt. This leaves an opening for Resident Evil: The Final Chapter to squeak out a win. However, it will be dealing with direct competition and that’s going to hurt. Finally there’s Gold, which is barely opening truly wide and is just hoping for a spot in the top ten. This weekend last year, Kung Fu Panda 3 opened with just over $40 million. This could be more than all three wide releases open with this weekend. 2017 does have better depth, but it won’t be enough to win in the year-over-year comparison. The are not many major releases on this week’s home market release list. The Girl on the Train is the biggest, but it is not the best. It is not even close to being the best. The race for best was mostly a two-way race between Long Way North and Ouija: Origin of Evil, with Ixcanul and Train to Busan being close behind. In the end, I went with Long Way North on Blu-ray Combo Pack as the Pick of the Week, but all four are worth owning.
December box office numbers helped 2016 end on ... a note. The good news and the bad news almost exactly balance out. On the one hand, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will finish the year with more than $400 million after just 16 days of release. That’s a stunning amount of money that helped 2016 earn a record box office at the domestic market. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned $650 million during December of 2015, so the month lost a lot of its lead over 2015, so much so that ticket sales fell behind last year’s total. The weakness at the end of the year will spill over into 2017, which is terrible news. A slow start could result in the dominant box office story being 2017 struggles compared to 2016. Bad news like this can sometimes become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sadly, 2017 is also going to get off to a slow start when it comes to wide releases / expansions. There are 16 films scheduled to open or expand wide this month and none of them are expected to get to $100 million.
It is likely none of them will even get very close. xXx: Return of Xander Cage is expected to be the best of a weak bunch, but I could see it getting beat by one of the five Oscar contenders opening wide this month, if it gets off to a slow start and one of the Oscar contenders starts picking up steam. Hidden Figures got off to a great start on Christmas Day and should it continue to earn Awards Season recognition, including some Oscar nominations, it could be in wide release well into February. Last January wasn’t as busy with 13 films opening or expanding wide over five weeks. Of these, two of them, The Revenant and Kung Fu Panda 3, topped $100 million domestically, while another, Ride Along 2, came close. 2017 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison. After a weak start, January rebounded and a couple of films on last month's preview cracked $100 million at the box office. Granted, Lone Survivor is technically a December release, but Ride Along will become one of the rare January releases to reach the century mark.
Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be too many February releases that have a real shot at $100 million. It is very likely that The Lego Movie will reach that milestone, but most of the rest of the movies will be lucky if they reach $50 million. Last February was very similar. We had one surprise $100 million hit, Identity Thief, plus a couple of solid midlevel hits, Warm Bodies, for instance. However, for the most part, the month was one miss after another. This means 2014 could continue its winning ways, or at the very least, shouldn't fall behind 2013's pace. World War Z was one of the most anticipated films of the summer, as it was based on a popular book and starred Brad Pitt, one of the biggest movie stars around. However, there were hints of problems, including extensive reshoots. In the end, it cost $190 million to make and while it pulled in more than $500 million worldwide, it will likely need a little help on the home market to break even. Will it break even on the home market?
Or is it a flawed execution to a really good idea? May ended on a mixed note, but there was still enough to celebrate. Of the seven films I thought had a legitimate shot at $100 million, four have already gotten there, one more is a sure thing, and another has a good shot as well. Only one, After Earth, will definitely fail to get to that milestone. (Although Now You See Me might get there instead.) Looking forward to June, there are four weekends, each with two wide releases, for a total of eight films. Of those eight, six have a legitimate shot at $100 million. One, Monsters University, should have no trouble getting to $200 million, and another, Man of Steel, should top $300 million. It is hard to compare this June with last June, because last June there were five weekends. Taking that into account and ignoring the first week, which lines up with the final week of May, there were eight wide releases. Of those eight, five hit $100 million, including three $200 million movies. There were no $300 million movies, so if the two big hits this month do as well as expected, 2013 could come out ahead.
The Croods debuted in first place on the international chart with $63.09 million on 11,709 screens in 46 markets, while its global opening was $106.73 million. The film led the way in Russia with $7.82 million on 2,166 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $12.65 million, including previews. It made $8.18 million on 521 screens in the U.K., also including previews, which was enough for an easy first place finish. Another first place victory came in Mexico, where it made $4.51 million on 1,990 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.80 million. It also debuted on top of the chart in Germany with $3.63 million on 728 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.21 million, while it had nearly identical results in Brazil with $3.35 million on 728 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.13 million. The film earned more number one debuts in Italy ($3.90 million on 711) and in Spain ($3.33 million on 763). It's the last week before Christmas, which means it is the last chance for last minute gifts.