Preview

In this game we have big quality difference but also huge handicap which
I found too big. The reason for this 45 points spread is that Paulistano
already defeat Sao Caetano in their first meeting this season as
visitors by 89:47 which is 42 difference so now bookie added few more
points because of home field advantage. I doubt we will see similar
scenario and difference should not go higher beside home field advantage
since now there will be big underestimation of opponent unlike in their
first meeting. That game was at very start of the season in which Sao
Caetano entered as rookie team, while Paulistano as one of favorites for
title since played finals last season losing to Bauru and again have
strong team. Favorites entered very motivated and destroyed newcomers
which looked confused, scared  and with too much respect for mighty
opponent which give them basketball lesson. But after this game Sao
Caetano had nice moral boosting win against weak opponent Associacao
Realizar 86:59 in away game and they get some confidence for next games
which were not that bad. They do lost next 4 matches but with more
decent difference and worth mentioning are just 59:85 home defeat from
Palmeiras and 71:95 away defeat from Pinheiros. I separated  this
opponents being of similar  strength as Paulistano so I expect similar
outcome tonight. Paulistano has nothing to prove in this game since they
already show who is who in their first meeting so will have relaxed
approach which would be enough for some 25-40 points win and will not
chase 50 points mark. I think first meeting 42 points difference will
stay as Sao Caetano highest defeat after tonight game. Paulistano won
all their 5 matches with big score against underdogs and even they won
derby against Pinheiros away and they are starting to look little too
overconfident. In their last game won away Mogi by just 14 even handicap
was set almost 30 and I expect to not cover the spread again. They will
expect same inexperienced and scared opponent from first round which
they won easy and will expect to be even easier at home, but Sao Caetano
will be more prepared  now and adjusted after 6 rounds played in the
league and some more matches with strong opponent so will give more
resistance to the hosts.