Preview

In this game Alges is set as huge favorites because in this second stage
have all 4 wins while Atletico CP started second stage with all 4
defeats. But in first stage when teams were in separate groups both were
very successful and their stats were 14-2 win-loss for Alges and 15-3
for Atletico CP which group had one more team so that is why had 2 more
games played. Both teams were sharing top position in their groups just
Alges were first on basket difference in their group above NB Queluz ,
while Atletico CP was runer up also because of worse basket difference
in their group below Odisseia Basket. In this second stage Alges and
Atletico end up in same group, while NB Queluz and Odisseia are also in
same group and already played their game which finished with 70:67
Odiseia home win which show that Alges and NB Quleuz group was not that
much better Alges to be almost 40 points favorites in away game against
one of the leaders from other group. It is true Alges had impressive +
338 difference in their group but same had NB Queluz +304 and Odisseia
had +336 in second group where Atletico had +189. This just show that
Alges won with huge results some weak teams from their group, but I
doubt will have easy job against stronger opponents and especially in
away game like is today. Their only 2 defeats were as visitors and in
this second stage they do had all 4 wins but 3 times played at home. All
4 wins were convincing and between 22-42 difference which is probably
the reason for today big spread but it is visible little let down since
highest win was first game 42 at home, than 32 away, than 24 at home and
was 22 in last 4th round. Now there was almost 3 weeks break in which I
expect Atletico CP to improve their form which was not good with all 4
defeats in second stage , but 3 of them were decent by 5,7 and 11
difference and only last round away defeat from Imortal Basket was big
by 34 difference. Actually it was their biggest defeat this season but
it was in away game and still below today line. Also Imortal is strong
team which is currently second best in second stage with 4 wins and just
1 defeat from Alges in away game so definitely these games create
impression that if Imortal was able to beat Atletico by more than 30
and Alges was able to win Imortal by more than 20 than Alges is capable
to win Atletico by more than 40. This is not math and things doesn’t go
like that and I think we have here too big underestimation of Atletico
which just had bad last round game and plenty of time to recover and
respond in front of home fans against leaders of group which will met
first time so will have big motivation to make surprise and win them so
I think will give bog resistance and no way will loose that big like
handicap suggests.