Preview

This is totally not important game since with 2 rounds left Triglav is
settled on 2nd spot while after lats round home defeat from Konjice
there is no chance for Maribor to get on important 4th position which
promise play off and cup semifinal. This is the reason why we have so
big handicap today since bookies probably count on disappointment on
Maribor side and their coach already said that doesn’t have some
expectations from this game, but it is reasonable statement since
quality difference is big and Maribor taking points is out of question
today. He said that all players will get playing time but it was same in
all other matches against Triglav and Athlete Celje since he knows that
can’t win and wants his young players to get big experience. Maribor
results against Celje were huge defeats but Triglav is weaker team than
Celje, who is current Slovenia champions and also WABA champion from
this season. Against Triglav defeats were more decent starting with 25
away defeat in first meeting than was 22 at home in second and biggest
difference was 45 in last 3rd defeat. So this last game is another
reason for big spread since was most recent and part of winners stage
but was also game where Maribor hit just 1 three pointer from 15
attempts and was weak also for 2 points and there was big difference in
rebounds and lost balls. Such drastic difference in so many categories
didn’t happened in previous games and I think will not happen again.
Maribor don’t have much to play for but his players will be motivated
since it is always big thing to face some of favorites and to show off.
They will definitely not lack motivation but it can’t be said for
Triglav which need to save energy since in two days play big derby
against Celje away and this game is already in players minds. It will be
distraction and there will be relaxed approach because of certain
underestimation against opponent that already beat 3 times by more than
20 difference. Checking their results I noticed that higher than 43
points if we exclude that game against Maribor they achieved only
against 3 teams that are now playing in losers stage and against Janian
which is weakest team from winners stage and Maribor also destroyed
Janina recently by 26 difference in away game. Their second win in
winners stage was also away against Konjice , the game that we cashed in
last month, so they have no problem playing away and can show good
resistance. For Triglav is totally not important how much will win this
game just to win it and keep the good mood but also to stay healthy and
fresh for derby. They will also rotate much and this is chance for
Maribor to show one good game and finish the season with two decent
defeats since their next game is also against more quality opponent
away.

I tried to provide even higher handicap for my customers in this game by
sending opposite pick to bunch of resellers ,but problem was that game
was removed and didn’t opened again for few hours. When it was offered
again line was +47,5 but was too less time to react and game was removed
again. New opening was actually initial line (+43,5) on which I also see
value but would have been nice if we could catch few points higher line
for additional safety. Nevermind I expect around 30-35 points Triglav
win so should be OK.