6:40 AM PST 2/9/2017 In a sequel showdown, The Lego Batman Movie is widely expected to rule the pre-Valentine's Day domestic box office when opening Friday opposite Fifty Shades Darker and John Wick 2. Tracking suggests Lego Batman will bow to north of $60 million for Warner Bros. Animation. More bullish box-office observers believe the spinoff will even approach or clear $70 million, considering The Lego Movie, directed by Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, debuted to $69.1 million over the Feb. 7-9 weekend in 2014. In Lego Batman, directed by Chris McKay, Will Arnett voices the role of the tiny Caped Crusader as the superhero tries to find himself and save Gotham City from a hostile takeover by The Joker (Zach Galifianakis). The voice cast also includes Michael Cera, Rosario Dawson and Ralph Fiennes. Imax partnered with Warner Bros. and DC Entertainment on the pic. The forecast for Universal's Fifty Shades Darker isn't as rosy, at least in comparison to the record-breaking $85 million bow of Fifty Shades of Grey over the three-day Valentine's Day/Presidents Day weekend in 2014.
Projections show the follow-up earning $30 million to $40 million in its U.S. debut. At the time of Fifty Shades of Grey, EL James' books about an S&M-laced romance were a global sensation. Dubbed "mommy porn," the female-fueled pic saw women turn out in groups to watch it, much like the first Sex and the City film. The sequel reunites Dakota Johnson and Jamie Dornan as the characters Anastasia Steele and Christian Grey, respectively, with James Foley assuming directing duties after James clashed with Fifty Shades of Grey helmer Sam Taylor-Johnson. It doesn't help that Fifty Shades of Grey had the advantage of Valentine's Day landing on a Saturday night, as well as launching over the long Presidents Day weekend, which falls a week later this year. (Universal is counting on the sequel doing strong midweek business since Valentine's Day is Tuesday.) The weekend's third new nationwide entry is Lionsgate's John Wick: Chapter 2, a male-fueled action film starring Keanu Reeves.
Common, Laurence Fishburne, Riccardo Scamarcio, Ruby Rose, John Leguizamo and Ian McShane co-star in the movie, directed by Chad Stahelski. Projections suggest John Wick 2 will debut as high as $20 million. The original film opened to $14.4 million in October 2014. In terms of their Rotten Tomatoes scores, Lego Batman boasts a stellar 98 percent, followed by John Wick 2 with an impressive 95 percent. Fifty Shades Darker lags at 18 percent.After audiences flocked to see three new, high-profile releases last week, an additional trio of wide challengers are crowding theaters this Friday. Might Fifty Shades Darker take a box office lashing over its sophomore weekend? Will John Wick: Chapter 2 hold steady at No. 3? Can The LEGO Batman Movie charge through Matt Damon’s Great Wall? Check out the Feb.17-20 four-day box office projections below. 1. The LEGO Batman Movie – $45 million Using The LEGO Movie as a barometer, things are looking good for Warner Bros. Animation’s third major big-screen outing.
While not a direct sequel to the original (a box office juggernaut that grossed $257.8 million in North America), LEGO Batman tapped the same audience at the same time of year its forerunner did, and grossed $53 million last weekend. While Valentine’s Day undoubtedly helped the film’s mid-week numbers (it jumped from $2.7 million to over $5 million from Monday to Tuesday), the film doesn’t need a holiday tie-in to fuel its grosses in the long run, unlike Fifty Shades Darker. With broad cross-demographic appeal and a sturdy superhero franchise at its core, The LEGO Batman Movie should tumble a slight 10-30 percent over its ssecond-weekend outing. 2. Fifty Shades Darker – $20 million While Fifty Shades of Grey notched one of history’s biggest second-weekend drops for a wide release in history, there’s a reasonable explanation: the film opened 24 hours before Valentine’s Day in 2015, meaning a surge in ticket sales to coincide with the romantic holiday. Fifty Shades Darker entered theaters across the same frame, though its initial three-day gross clocked in at roughly half of its predecessor’s.
Still, the film could benefit from the four-day President’s Day weekend to balloon its total even further, as it remains the most prominent romance-themed picture on the market. Look for Fifty Shades Darker to whip up between $17 million and $23 million over the four-day frame. 3. John Wick: Chapter 2 – $19 million John Wick: Chapter 2 more than doubled the $14.4 million opening gross posted by the first film in the John Wick series, which quickly became a modern cult classic upon its 2014 theatrical bow; its successor premiered to an astonishing $30.4 million, falling just short of becoming star Keanu Reeves’ biggest opener since The Day the Earth Stood Still opened with $30.5 million in 2008. Strong word-of-mouth (Chapter 2 currently has an A- grade on CinemaScore — a full letter higher than the first film) and borderline-rabid fan affinity for the brand should be enough to keep it from dipping more than 40 percent this weekend. 4. Fist Fight – $17.5 million
Audiences are yearning for a good laugh, as a major mainstream comedy hasn’t opened wide since December’s Why Him? That changes with the release of New Line’s Charlie Day/Ice Cube laugher Fist Fight, which launches at approximately 3,200 sites on Friday (with Thursday previews). The Warner Bros. family has found success in the genre in the recent past, including with 2016’s runaway hit Central Intelligence ($127.4 million domestically), How to Be Single ($112.3 million worldwide), and Vacation ($104.9 million worldwide). Though Fist Fight‘s talent roster isn’t as robust as those titles’, Charlie Day, Ice Cube, and Tracy Morgan seemingly make an ace comedic grouping in the film’s marketing materials. Expect Fist Fight to pull in around $16 million to $19 million over the holiday period. 5. The Great Wall – $17 million Controversy aside, there seems to be little reason for domestic audiences to book a trip back in time with Damon aboard Legendary and Universal Pictures’ The Great Wall, a historical monster movie set during the Song dynasty.
While the film is directed by Zhang Yimou, one of the most well-respected Chinese filmmakers working today, most North American ticket-buyers have likely never heard of the filmmaker, and poor critical reception for his latest offering will do little to capture their interest. Foreign audiences, however, have eaten the film up, with a solid $224.5 million pouring in from international markets so far. Regardless of its domestic performance (likely in the $13 million-$18 million range), the film is already a global hit. Outside the top five, Fox’s A Cure for Wellness looks to scare up a so-so $6 million-$8 million figure on a $40 million budget. The film hits 2,702 locations as Gore Verbinski’s first major theatrical feature since Disney’s The Lone Ranger bowed in 2013. Judging by marketing materials, the film’s spooky tone recalls brooding thrillers from the late 1990s and early 2000s, like The Others, What Lies Beneath, and The Haunting, and could outperform initial industry projections as solid counter-programming to this week’s family-oriented (LEGO Batman), comedic (Fist Fight), and action-intensive (John Wick: Chapter 2) fare.