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If the stock is large relative to the flow, which is likely when inflows survive for a long time in the stock, dramatic changes in inflows or outflows will not significantly affect stock size. ... [But] [o]scillations ... are frequently observed in stock-flow situations. (69)[W]ith regular Markov chains we may draw two conclusions about the long-run probabilities: (1) for the long run, the probability of being in a particular state approaches an equilibrium value that is independent on the state that the individual is in initially; (2) these equilibrium probabilities may be interpreted as the percent of time spent with each state over the very long run. (107)Decision analysis can tell us when our preferred policy choices are robust and when they are sensitive to the numbers assumed in the analysis. If they are sensitive, decision analysis will help us identify which assumptions are critical and which dont matter much. It cannot resolve debates about underlying values, but it is of great assistance when we must engage in a discussion about the implications of alternative sets of values. (236)Remember that the world will never beat a pathway to your door just because you build a better model; analysis is worthless if it cant be communicated to others. The watchword, therefore, is: Keep it simple. The purpose is to inform the decision maker, not to overwhelm him. Analysis should be presented in such a way that the essential points can be readily grasped, and, if necessary, debated. (329)
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