Nfl Bets Against The Spread Week 11

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Nov 13, 2019 at 8:12 am ET 9 min read
With the Saints not only failing to cover last week, ending a 6-0 streak against the spread, but also losing their game outright, there's a new juggernaut against the spread, and it's a team universally acknowledged as a dangerous out that can beat anyone at any time. Say hello to the unstoppable Miami Dolphins.
It's true -- the Dolphins have covered five straight games against the spread, the longest such active streak in the NFL. That includes outright wins in their last two games. And even though Ryan Fitzpatrick certainly makes a difference under center, Miami's latest win came largely thanks to their defense, which surrendered its lowest yardage total of the season while generating three turnovers, despite coming into the game with just four takeaways in their first eight games.
The progress Brian Flores has made on the defensive side of the ball is apparent; after the Dolphins defense allowed 19 offensive touchdowns in their first four games before the bye with at least three scores in all of them, they've buckled down to give up just nine offensive touchdowns in their last five, including just one score each in their last two games. Yes, some of it has to do with quality of competition, but we should also acknowledge that their run has come after dealing away talent and losing some of their other best players to injury, with Xavien Howard playing one game after the bye before hitting injured reserve and Reshad Jones also only making one appearance since the bye.
It appears the Dolphins have improved enough on the defensive side of the ball to have success against limited offenses, and another comes to town in the form of the Bills in Week 11. While Buffalo won their first meeting 31-21, Buffalo had just 305 yards of offense in the entire game and trailed entering the fourth quarter. The final score was boosted by Micah Hyde returning an onside kick for a touchdown, but the game was certainly much closer than the score.
And the market is giving the Dolphins an excellent chance to extend their ATS winning streak to six games by making them 5.5-point underdogs at home against the Bills. On one hand, it shows how much the perceived gap between these two teams has closed after the Bills were 17-point home favorites back in Week 7; put both those games on a neutral field, and the 14-point gap in the first game shrinks to 8.5 points this week.
But are were sure it's moved enough? While the Dolphins have outperformed expectations week in and week out since their Week 5 bye, the Bills have struggled to prove they're as good as their hot start made them seem. The defense had three of its worst performances of the season in its last four games, and Josh Allen hasn't done much to inspire confidence in the offense lighting up the scoreboard. The offense ranks 26th in points per drive as it largely relies on the defense to keep the game close. That's not a recipe for winning by a touchdown or more on the road.
In a somewhat related note, the team with the longest active ATS slump is the Buccaneers at 0-5, though they're not playing as poorly as that statistic would suggest. They won but didn't cover against the Cardinals this week, took the Seahawks into overtime in Seattle the week before, and really should have beaten the Titans the week before that as well. They've also been money when betting the total, as seven straight Bucs games have gone over. This week they're 5.5-point home 'dogs against the Saints with a total of 50.5.
Each week, I break down what you need to know about each game from a betting angle before you lock in your picks. I'll talk about big line moves, teasers and parlays to consider and more.
If you want to know which sides I like, you can find that info at the SportsLine link below, where all my rated plays appear during the season along with my five SuperContest picks each week and plenty of great analysis from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check out where all our CBS Sports staff lands on each game each week right here.
Over at SportsLine, I'll be posting my picks for Week 11 throughout the week. Join now and use promo code WHITE for $1 on your first month and you can get mine and every SportsLine expert's picks throughout the year, as well as my SuperContest picks each Saturday.
Bills -5.5 at Dolphins (was BUF -7.5)
Cardinals at 49ers -11.5 (was SF -13.5)
Bengals at Raiders -10.5 (was OAK -8.5)
Falcons at Panthers -5.5 (was CAR -7)
Lookaheads are lines that are posted for matchups before the previous week's games. Analyzing the biggest movers is beneficial for smart bettors, who have a chance to examine those moves to determine whether there's value in playing against a potential overreaction. Throw out the one involving a quarterback injury last week, and fading the line moves in this spot went 2-0.
Skipping Bills-Dolphins after talking about it above, the Cardinals-49ers rematch is interesting. The Niners were 10-point favorites in Arizona two weeks ago, but that game was on a Thursday, which is a taller order for the team that has to travel on the short week, so you would probably expect this line to be higher than it is. The 49ers were in control heading into the fourth quarter of that first meeting and somehow gave up an 88-yard touchdown to turn a 10-point game into a three-point final. Despite losing their last three games, the Cardinals have covered five of their last six, and while the 49ers suffered their first loss on Monday night, it was the third time they failed to cover in their last four games.
The Raiders gain another two points on the line after winning a close one on Thursday night while the Bengals got embarrassed at home against the Ravens. Cincinnati already ranked as probably the worst team in the league heading into Ryan Finley's first start, so I'm not sure how much the blowout loss changed their value. The Raiders are on a roll, but they haven't won by double digits yet this year and have only managed it one time since Week 2 of the 2017 season.
The Falcons' upset win in New Orleans has knocked their Week 11 line down with the market now perceiving them as competitive. While the Panthers are coming off a loss in Green Bay, they didn't look bad in that game and actually came within a yard of scoring at the end, which could have sent the game into overtime pending the two-point try. This matchup could come down to whether the Atlanta defense fixed its issues during the bye or the big win over the Saints was a one-off.
Who should you back against the spread, on the money line and the total in every Week 11 NFL game? And which Super Bowl contender goes down? Visit SportsLine to see their Week 11 NFL cheat sheet, all from the model that is up almost $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks. 
Jets at Redskins -1
Bengals at Raiders -10.5
Bears at Rams -6.5
Chiefs -4 vs. Chargers
Part of my research each week is calculating the DVOA (or DAVE, which is partially reflective of preseason projections) as tracked by Football Outsiders and seeing where the metric has a significant disagreement with the market. Now that defensive adjustments have been included following Week 4, I'll include that analysis here.
The Redskins are in a tier with the Bengals as Dolphins as the worst teams in the league per DVOA, and since they don't have much of a home-field advantage, that gives us plenty of value on the visiting team if last week's quality performance wasn't a mirage. With my one-point home-field rating for Washington, my metric estimates this line should be about Jets -3.5 based on DVOA.
The Bengals-Raiders game makes another appearance, but here DVOA says the line should be even higher with the Bengals as the league's worst team. The metric would make this line Raiders -13.
The Rams haven't done anything to earn this much of an advantage against a mediocre Bears team, and when you factor in the Rams' lower home-field rating, this line should be somewhere around Rams -2.5. We correctly identified the Rams as a good fade in this section last week, despite a lot of other trends pointing to the team as a strong play.
The final game is being played on a neutral field in Mexico City, but the DVOA disparity is so wide between the Chiefs and Chargers that our metric says this line should be more like Chiefs -7.5. Of course, we overestimated the Chiefs in this section last week, and it's possible their offensive line injuries and a potentially less than 100 percent Patrick Mahomes could be a factor.
If 80% of the action or more is on one side of a line, you want to be thinking about taking the other side, a practice commonly known as fading the public. If the consensus thinks it has a game figured out, that should be flashing warning signs for you. All betting trends data is from Sports Insights as of Tuesday night.
While I'm not going to tell you to blindly fade the Patriots in this spot coming off a bye when they're getting 80 percent of the tickets, I will point out the teams we faded in this section went 2-0-1 against the spread last week. Other sides with 70% or more of the tickets that could get to 80% and earn fade consideration include Cardinals +11.5, Raiders -10.5, Jets +1, Bears +6.5, Vikings -10.5 and Ravens -4.
Dolphins +200 vs. Bills
Jaguars +125 at Colts
The Dolphins are an obvious call after talking them up in the lede, as their game against a limited Bills offense should be closer than the spread indicates. There are a lot of other interesting teams out there, but I settled on a Jaguars squad coming off a bye, which is a great spot when a team is on the road and upgrading at quarterback with the return of Nick Foles. If Jacoby Brissett's knee is still an issue by Sunday, you could argue the Jags could be favored here. Playing both these teams gives us a +575 payout as we chase our second winning underdog parlay of the year, and if you want to throw in Steelers +135 on Thursday night and chase a payout around 15/1, I'm not stopping you.
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Panthers +0.5 vs. Falcons
Jets +7 at Redskins
The Panthers made an appearance in our lookahead section after the Falcons' upset win bumped their standing in the market up. We'll play against that and fade them winning twice in a row on the road. I wouldn't mind tying that tease to the Saints as well and just needing them to win against the Bucs, but I prefer to fade the Redskins with the second leg of our teaser. Their one win this season was by one point, and it probably would have been a loss if Miami had played Ryan Fitzpatrick for 60 minutes. They also lost by double digits to questionable teams like the Bills, Giants, and Bears. I can't see them blowing out anybody, can you? 
The teaser of the week is just 5-5 this year after a 12-5 run in 2018, but we were able to cover last week despite losing much of our tease value when Matthew Stafford was ruled out. Even with the injury, the Lions covered our teased +8.5 line, giving us a win when paired with the runaway Ravens victory.
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In our picks and predictions against the spread for Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season, Seattle and Kansas City avenge division losses to Arizona and Las Vegas while Tom Brady outduels Jared Goff.
Week 10 had some rough endings to throw off our Sporting News picks and predictions against the spread, led by the Cardinals beating the Bills on a Hail Mary pass. That means we just need to get back to being better in Week 11.
There are 14 games on the slate, with only one double-digit spread and a lot of razor-thin lines. That makes the upcoming schedule even more challenging. That won't stop us from our fearless forecasts or our latest pigskin prognosticatons.
Here's breaking down all the Week 11 matchups as we look for a lot of winners and good success against the numbers:
Andy Reid's teams are 18-3 after a bye during the regular season. Patrick Mahomes' worst loss of his career came in Week 5, when he threw his only interception of the season as the Raiders won at Arrowhead Stadium. Bet on hisfirst trip to Las Vegas being successful, knowing that he needs his best to hold off a red-hot team shooting for Kansas City's divisional throne. Kansas City will run the ball better and play improved defense to split the season series.
Pick:Chiefs win 31-27 but fail to cover the spread.
Thursday, 8:20p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network and Amazon Prime Video
The Cardinals took over first place with their improbable last-second win against the Bills. They also survived the Seahawks in overtime in Week 7. Kyler Murray will stay sizzling,but look for Russell Wilson to rebound from his worst game of the season, likely with help from Chris Carson and a more viable running game that will take pressure off their overwhelmed defense. Ball control plus a hyper-efficient, lower-volume Wilson gets Seattle back on track.
Pick:Seahawks win 38-34 and cover the spread.
The Rams' defense is playing at high level. The Bucs' defense has beeninconsistent but is capable of dominating against the run and by rushing the passer. Tampa Bay has strong memories of itsprime-time home meltdown against New Orleans, and so it won't let that happen again vs. long-traveling Los Angeles. It will be easier for Tom Brady to manufacture offense with the versatile playmakers around him than it will be for Jared Goff on the road.
Pick:Buccaneers win 24-17and cover the spread.
The Ravens realize their chances of winning the AFC North again are fading, so they'll focus on making sure they at least lock up the wild card with Lamar Jackson. Their memories of being upset by the Titans at home in last season's playoffs should prompt them to play better in the rematch. The Titans' defense is wilting while the Ravens can still count on theirs as a backbone, despite key injuries. Jackson is more comfortable at home than Ryan Tannehill is on the road.
Pick:Ravens win 27-17 and cover the spread.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have a challenge against a defense that is very good against the pass and pretty good against the run. But they should also appreciate not needing to deal with the elements of Lambeau Field. The Colts will have success with their deep backfield as they try to shorten the game with ball control and limit Rodgers' chances. But Rodgers will get help from his running game and defense, too,to set up big, game-changing pass plays.
The Browns' running game is at full strength,so Cleveland cantake games out of Baker Mayfield's hands. They're also gettingbetter play on defense behind Myles Garrett. The Eagles have a more ambigious identity and Carson Wentz is suddenly struggling despite some reinforcements in thepassing game. Their defense will play better and keep them in this tough game in the Cleveland weather, but Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will make the difference again for the Browns in a low-scoring game.
Pick:Browns win 20-17but fail to cover the spread.
The Falcons are coming off a bye, so theiroffense likely will be at full effectiveness around Matt Ryan. The Saints will not have Drew Brees (ribs)to duel their NFC South archrivals. Taysom Hill will need to channel some of his best running and passingto get the better of Ryan. Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas will lift Hilllate in a high-scoring game, answering what Ryan does with Todd Gurley, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley.
Pick:Saints win 30-27 but fail to cover the spread.
The Lions should have Matthew Stafford rolling into Charlotte after finally fining the right dose of dynamic rookie running back D'Andre Swift. The Panthers will not have Christian McCaffrey and there's a chance Teddy Bridgewater also will miss the game. The Panthers' defense has fallen apart at every level in recent weeks and the Lions have struck a good balance between ball control and explosiveness.
The Texans are terrible against the run. The Patriots will remain a run-heavy offense with Damien Harris, Rex Burkhead, Cam Newton and whoever else. Deshaun Watson can give a strong response after his weather-related clunker in Cleveland, thanks to Will Fuller and former Patriot Brandin Cooks. But look for Bill Belichick to get the better of his former defensive coordinator, Romeo Crennel.
Pick:Patriots win 27-24 and cover the spread.
The Steelers have been good at piling it on againstovermatched teams this season. The Jaguars fit that category. With the running game struggling, Pittsburgh has been relentless with Ben Roethlisberger and his strong trio of wide receivers. Jacksonville can't cover any of them. Pittsburgh will contain James Robinson and the Jacksonville running game and tee off on Jake Luton, the second consecutive rookie QB they'll be facing.
Pick:Steelerswin 34-17 and cover the spread.
Speaking of rookie QBs, Joe Burrow will bounce back from his brutal outing against the Steelers by working the middle the field and spreading the ball around against a Washington defense that is developing more holes. Alex Smith will keep moving the ball for Washington with plenty of help from running backs Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic. but Burrow will hang in there to deliver the game-winning field-goal drive.
The Jets have to take a long flight after their bye. Joe Flacco and La'Mical Perine are now in the primary offensive roles with Sam Darnold (shoulder) out again and Frank Gore becoming more of a backup. The Chargers should feel confident about Justin Herbert making big plays all over the field and having more success with its rushing committee. They simply don't win close games, however, so thishas to be a blowout result or a loss. Go for the former with LA at home.
Pick:Chargers win 31-21 and cover the spread.
The Broncos are seeing Drew Lock fade as the turnovers pile up while Tua Tagovailoa (3-0) is continuing his rise as the Dolphins' franchise quarterback. Miami will have success moving the ball with a balanced attack and Tagovailoa getting the ball out quickly. The Dolphins' defense will force Lock into more mistakes after shutting down the run.
Pick:Dolphins win 24-17 and cover the spread.
The Cowboys showed life on offense and defense in their close loss to the Steelers before the bye. They should be healthier and more effective in both the run and pass games with Ezekiel Elliott and Andy Dalton in t
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