Keith Law's 2017 Mock Draft 1.0: Will a high schooler make history?
Keith Law ESPN Senior Writer
To quote a national crosschecker I spoke to while assembling this mock: "There are a few picks that seem very strongly tied to teams, but after that, a ton of smoke."
Another front-office guy whose team picks in the top 10 said his team still has 20 names under consideration for that pick. As such, I take some solace in knowing that, although I don’t know who’s going to be taken where, nobody else knows either.
There are really just two candidates to go first overall at this point, excluding some rumored way-under-slot names such as Pavin Smith. Brendan McKay is a true two-way talent from Louisville who could go out at first base or as a left-handed starter. Hunter Greene is also a two-way player, but his future is almost certainly on the mound, and he has a ceiling for the ages. If McKay doesn’t go first, he goes second. If Greene doesn’t go second (or first), he goes third. If Royce Lewis doesn’t go third, he goes no lower than fifth. If Mackenzie Gore doesn’t go fifth, I think he goes sixth.
But at that point, it starts to get fuzzy. I’ve heard Shane Baz with Philadelphia a few times. The same with Jordon Adell and the Angels. I’m also pretty sure I’ve heard 12 players identified as "definitely going in the top 10," which I believe would require some sort of non-Euclidean draft math.
Some of these names are more strongly attached to their teams than others. Some are entirely speculative at this point because it’s too early, with most teams not having regional meetings with their area scouts until this week or, for more teams, next week. Also, bear in mind that I’m not assuming anything about signability here; any team might choose to sign a second-round talent, a college senior or a fourth-year junior to save money on that pick and go overslot on later picks. None of the 27 names I’ve assigned to teams would fit that description.
This is my first projection of all of the picks for the first round -- 27 picks, as three teams surrendered theirs to sign free agents -- of the 2017 Rule 4 draft, to be held June 12-14.
This is based on the best information I could get about team preferences for specific players or player categories, as well as knowledge of teams' general strategies for their first picks in the draft. This is not, however, a ranking of players by ability or what I view as their likely major league value.
Brendan McKay, LHP/1B
Louisville
McKay is a true two-way prospect, and some scouts say he’s the best pure hitter in the draft. I think he’s a better prospect on the mound, with a 90-95 mph fastball and plus curveball along with a long track record of performance.
Hunter Greene, RHP/SS
Notre Dame High School, Sherman Oaks, California
Greene is a 17-year-old phenom from Giancarlo Stanton’s alma mater. He has reached 101 mph and sits in the mid-90s with easy arm action and tremendous athleticism.
Royce Lewis, SS
JSerra High School, San Juan Capistrano, California
Lewis has pretty good feel at the plate and tons of speed, which should make him a top-10 pick even though he lacks a clear position.
Kyle Wright, RHP
Vanderbilt
Wright has the delivery and size of a starter, with an out pitch in his slider and a fastball that has reached 96. He should be the first college right-hander taken.
MacKenzie Gore, LHP
Whiteville (North Carolina) High School
Gore might be this year’s Braxton Garrett, a lefty with an average fastball but command and feel beyond his years. He also has a tight curveball that looks like a potential out pitch.
J.B. Bukauskas, RHP
North Carolina
Bukauskas has a plus fastball and plus slider now, though UNC has him overusing the slider, and he can turn over his changeup well enough that I think he’ll end up with three above-average weapons.
Adam Haseley, OF
Virginia
Haseley leads the Cavaliers’ everyday starters in all three triple-slash stats (.399/.491/.680) and in walks (32) through May 2. He shows surprising power and the potential to stay in center field long term.
Shane Baz, RHP
Concordia Lutheran High School, Tomball, Texas
Baz has touched 98 with a good slider, but there is concern about the delivery and how well hitters seem to see his fastball.
Austin Beck, OF
North Davidson High School, Lexington, North Carolina
Beck is already tooled up and physically mature, with tremendous bat speed, but there is some effort to his game and some trouble with off-speed stuff.
Jordon Adell, OF
Ballard High School, Louisville, Kentucky
Adell started the season miserably and hasn't thrown well all year, but has been on a power tear recently and has moved himself back into first-round consideration, even with swing-and-miss concerns.
Pavin Smith, 1B
Virginia
Smith is the safest of the safe guys. He has been among the hardest Division I hitters to strike out, with just seven strikeouts through 47 games and 183 at-bats through May 2. He also makes hard contact and shows some power.
Trevor Rogers, LHP
Carlsbad (New Mexico) High School
Rogers turns 20 in November and is one of the oldest prep players in the class, but the stuff is there now, up to the mid-90s with a very hard slider and a lightning-quick arm.
13. Miami Marlins
Heliot Ramos, OF
Alfonso Casta Martinez High School, Maunabo, Puerto Rico
Ramos has a very direct swing that should produce tons of contact and at least average power. He’s a plus runner with the arm strength to end up an all-around asset in center.
DL Hall, LHP
Valdosta (Georgia) High School
Hall works in the low 90s with a hammer curveball but lacks the command and control of Gore and has some cross-body action in his delivery. He might have more long-term upside, though.
15. Houston Astros
David Peterson, LHP
Oregon
A 6-foot-6 lefty, Peterson has been sitting 90-94 in recent starts and has an unbelievable 117-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio this year, capped by a 20-strikeout outing on April 28 against feeble Arizona State.
16. New York Yankees
Nick Pratto, 1B
Huntington Beach (California) High School
Pratto seems to have separated himself as the best pure hitter among the high school crop this year, though high school first basemen taken high don’t have the greatest track record either.
17. Seattle Mariners
Griffin Canning, RHP
UCLA
Canning has an unorthodox delivery, but he throws a lot of strikes with his 93-94 mph fastball and power slider.
18. Detroit Tigers
Alex Faedo, RHP
Florida
Faedo has shown bigger velocity in the past but is more average this year, with a plus slider and below-average command.
Luis Campusano-Bracero, C
Cross Creek High School, Augusta, Georgia
Campusano-Bracero cleaned his body up substantially over the winter and has run up the board in a year that has very few significant catching prospects.
20. New York Mets
Logan Warmoth, 3B
North Carolina
A junior shortstop, Warmoth is showing more power and patience this season. Some scouts think he’ll move to third or second, but he shows enough pop to profile as a regular at either spot.
Jeren Kendall, OF
Vanderbilt
Kendall could easily slip into the back of the first round after a spring in which he has had trouble making contact, but the athleticism here is hard to pass up. He is maybe an 80 runner, with bat speed and good range in center.
Jake Burger, 3B
Missouri State
Burger has real power and rarely strikes out, though scouts think the power is ahead of his hit tool. He’s very likely to end up at first base.
Bubba Thompson, OF
McGill-Toolen High School, Mobile, Alabama
Thompson is committed to the University of Alabama to play baseball and football, but he’s almost certainly going to be drafted high enough that it won’t matter. He’s an 80 runner with power and athleticism, but there are questions about how raw he is as a hitter right now.
24. Boston Red Sox
Keston Hiura, 2B/DH
UC-Irvine
Hiura is another plus hit tool guy, but he has always had a below-average arm that has limited his potential positions, and a UCL tear in April 2016 has kept him from throwing in games since.
Tanner Houck, RHP
Missouri
Houck is a two-pitch guy with a reliever’s delivery. He has seen his performance drop this spring as his stuff has backed up a little bit.
26. Texas Rangers
Ryan Vilade, SS
Stillwater (Oklahoma) High School
Vilade plays short now but will move to third base in pro ball, where his plus raw power will make him a good regular as long as he hits enough to get to it.
27. Chicago Cubs
Nick Allen, SS
Francis Parker High School, San Diego, California
The biggest knock on Allen is his size -- he’s maybe 5-foot-8 and maxed out -- but he’s a true shortstop who has hit everywhere he has played, and scouts love his style of play.