6) USDCHF

Technical Analysis (MA, RSI, STOCH, MACD, ADX)

• M30 - DOWN
• H1 - DOWN
• H4 - DOWN
• D1 - DOWN
• W1 - DOWN
• MN - RANGE

• Resistance: 0.9270, 0.9350, 0.9400
• Support: 0.9125, 0.9100, 0.9070

Due to a number of important events, the currency pair was highly volatile. Central banks in many countries made decisions on the future of monetary policy, and the SNB was no exception. Also, the emerging sharp demand for protection also greatly influenced the movement of the instrument. Risk sentiment dropped noticeably yesterday, global stock indices collapsed yesterday, financial flows moved into safe-haven currencys. Santa Rally at its best. The value of the Fear-Greed indicator has slightly decreased and points to 31.

Sentiment in the US stock market has soured due to the fact that D. Biden's Build Back Better bill did not pass through the US Congress this year. Let's remind this bill provided for expenses in the amount of 1.75 trillion dollars. According to media reports: The spike in inflation has become a political issue for President Biden's Build Back Better bill, whose critics have pointed to price increases as the reason why now is not the time for Congress to authorize about $ 1.75 trillion in new spending.

Everything else is generally stable. Omicron has yet to make the global economy sneeze, but it looks like it's because the world is tired of blockages and restrictions, not the virus itself. But do not forget about the fact that there is still no official position of the WHO, as well as the fact that in a number of countries the new Omicron strain has already become a 'leader'. According to the latest data, the number of new cases of Omicron infection in Europe and Africa is doubling every two days.

News from China began to cause concern again. Since the calm plan with debt restructuring is somehow delayed. Yesterday it became known that Chinese lenders are suing real estate giant Evergrande for more than $ 13 billion. The court accepted 367 claims against Evergrande.

The SNB maintained a loose monetary policy to ensure price stability and support the local economy in its recovery from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. All parameters of the monetary policy remained unchanged, the SNB interest rate at the level of -0.75%. Economic growth forecasts for Switzerland have improved. This year, GDP is likely to grow by about 3.5%. SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said inflation in Switzerland has peaked and will decline next year, speaking at a press conference following the meeting on monetary policy. The new forecast is 0.6% for 2021, 1.0% for 2022 and 0.6% for 2023.
The SNB will continue to monitor the Swiss franc exchange rate and respond as needed. He also said that a sovereign wealth fund using SNB assets is a bad idea.

In terms of macro data, the US also released quite important weekly indicators from the labor market. The US published the number of initial jobless claims for the week ended December 10, which increased to 206 thousand, which did not meet market expectations. However, the total number of people receiving unemployment benefits fell again to 1.845 million.

Next, we follow the end of the week, also do not forget that this is the last full-fledged working week, then everything will be even less predictable. Plus, we are very closely following the development of the situation around the new Omicron strain, and the real estate market in China.

Now the direction is up, it still looks more attractive, there is high inflation in the US and positive on the labor market. Plus, Powell's announced acceleration of the QE program cut makes it possible to see up to three interest rate hikes in 2022. Also, do not forget about the general attitude of the SNB to the nat. currency.

In order to be sure that the currency pair has returned to the trend state, it is necessary to see a breakdown of the important resistance level of 0.9400. By the breakdown of which, we can more confidently say that the bulls gained the upper hand in the currency pair, and the currency pair came out of the side in which it was hanging for months. Moreover, the currency pair is now back below the 0.92060 level.

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