6) USDCHF

Technical Analysis (MA, RSI, STOCH, MACD, ADX)

• M30 - DOWN
• H1 - UP
• H4 - UP
• D1 - UP
• W1 - RANGE
• MN - UP

• Resistance: 0.9270, 0.9350, 0.9400
• Support: 0.9206, 0.9125, 0.9100

The pair almost did not 'pay' attention to the key events of the month yesterday, as all decisions corresponded to forecasts. The daily movement was again in the sideways direction, and in a rather narrow one with a width of 55 pips. Today, the pair is trading again near the 0.9206 level. When the market becomes clear, investors can relax a little, think about profits and start shifting into more profitable-risky assets, for example, the stock market. Now the situation with COVID is still quite complicated, but it is already more understandable. With China, too, everything seems to be clear so far, the Fed also added clarity yesterday. Against this background, the value of the Fear-Greed indicator has grown to 34. There is still a Risk-OFF phase in the market, so the demand for risk has appeared, so it can immediately turn around.

Last night at the Fed meeting, the central bank accelerated its program of reduction to $30 billion a month from January, as expected. Fed officials also presented their expectations of rate hikes to three in 2022 and three in 2023 in the form of dot-polta, however, the tone of the statement as well as the press conference suggest that they still believe that current inflation levels are likely to be temporary, even if the word was not used in the statement.
It is also worth noting that forecasts for the growth of the American economy for the next two years have been worsened and forecasts for inflation have been raised. All the signals from the US regulator indicate that it is ready to follow the path of tightening monetary policy. At the same time, the Fed will act with an eye on the economic situation and is ready to reduce the pace of rate hikes if it sees a deterioration in the economic situation.

This was the trigger for a serious shot in the stock market, which ultimately put pressure on the US dollar.

Switzerland didn't publish anything yesterday. Today, we are following an important event by the pair, the SNB will announce its decisions on the future monetary policy. Do not expect anything supernatural, but in any case it is very important to keep an eye out.
The Swiss National Bank intends to leave the interest rate and global monetary policy unchanged. The SNB will also present new forecasts of inflation and economic growth, in which we expect comments on higher inflation with the consumer price index for November reaching 1.5%. Markets are afraid of the SNB's comments on the change of the inflation target, and many are waiting for an official position on the idea of creating a national welfare fund.

Today we are following:
- SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q4) - CHF
- SNB Monetary Policy Assessment - CHF
- SNB Press Conference - CHF
- US Initial Jobless Claims - USD

Now the upward direction still looks more attractive, there is high inflation in the US, and a positive in the labor market. Plus, Powell's announced acceleration of the reduction of the QE program makes it possible to see up to three interest rate hikes in 2022. Also, do not forget about the general attitude of the SNB to the national currency.
However, as they wrote, next week two key events are the decisions of the Fed and the SNB on their monetary policy, a lot depends on these decisions.

In order to be sure that the pair has returned to the new state of the trade, it is necessary to see the breakdown of the important resistance level of 0.9400. According to the breakdown of which we can say more confidently that the bulls took over the pair, and the pair came out of the sidewall in which it hung for months.

#fx #trading #forex #analyze #MT4 #MT5 #USDCHF