6) USDCHF

Technical Analysis (MA, RSI, STOCH, MACD, ADX)

• M30 - DOWN
• H1 - UP
• H4 - UP
• D1 - UP
• W1 - RANGE
• MN - UP

• Resistance: 0.9270, 0.9350, 0.9400
• Support: 0.9206, 0.9125, 0.9100

The currency pair continued multidirectional trading yesterday amid the absence of large market participants, as well as increased demand for protection, while both assets are traditional safe-haven currency currencies. Again, trading was around the 0.9206 level. What the market has noticed is the first recorded death from a new strain, Omicron, in the UK. This news dampened the demand for risk. On the eve of key central bank meetings, the market is feeling fear again, the Fear-Greed indicator has declined and points to 29 for yesterday's total.

Neither the US nor Switzerland released any macro data yesterday.

The first death from a new strain, Omicron, was recorded in the UK yesterday. The complete lack of details about the circumstances of this death only increased the general uncertainty and fear. Meanwhile, cases are also on the rise in the United States, with average daily cases well above 100,000. This worries economists ahead of a busy holiday season as cases begin to decline amid rising vaccination rates. Currently, large-scale lockdowns are unlikely in the United States, but local and state measures, along with public concerns, could slow economic growth. The state of California has already introduced a mandatory mask wearing regime.
COVID concerns have pushed G7 finance ministers and central bank governors to commit to doing more to tackle the pandemic. In addition, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) cut its growth forecasts for developing Asia for the same reason.

The real estate market in China also continues to bounce back. Zhang Chao, a researcher at the Taihe Analytical Center, said yesterday that the debt restructuring process is underway and the debt crisis will gradually be resolved. But if a company like Evergrande continues to develop in line with its original business concept even after restructuring its debt, it will still remain a 'malignant tumor' for China's economic development and a major potential risk for the entire industry. In his opinion, the situation with Evergrande once again sends an alarming signal to companies that develop their business on the basis of a large amount of borrowed funds.

Investors now seem to have priced in the prospect of faster Fed tightening amid fears of rising inflation. The rates were further bolstered by US CPI data released Friday, which showed the general CPI accelerated to its highest level since 1982. With the exception of food and energy prices, the core CPI also posted the sharpest rise since mid-1991.
In fact, money markets are pointing to the possibility of the Fed's first rate hike as early as May-June 2022 and the next increase as early as November. This, in turn, continued to act as a tailwind for the dollar.

Nonetheless, the focus will be on the results of the two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, which the Fed will announce on Wednesday. And also do not forget about the meeting about the press conference of the SNB, after the publication of the decision on the interest rate on Thursday. These events will certainly suit the volatility in the market and hopefully give direction to the market.

Here is a list of important events and publications in our opinion for the coming week:
Today:
- US Producer Price Index (PPI) (MoM) (Nov) 16:30 Moscow time
Shutter:
- US Retail Sales Baseline (MoM) (Nov) 16:30 Moscow time
- FOMC Economic Forecasts 22:00 UTC
- Decision on the interest rate of the Fed 22:00 Moscow time
- FOMC Press Conference 22:00 GMT
Thursday:
- Decision of the Central Bank of Switzerland on the interest rate (Q4) 11:30 Moscow time
- Evaluation of the SNB's monetary policy 11:30 Moscow time
- Press conference of the SNB 12:30 Moscow time
- The number of applications for unemployment benefits 16:30 Moscow time

Now the direction is up, it still looks more attractive, there is high inflation in the US and positive on the labor market. Plus, Powell's announced acceleration of the QE program cut makes it possible to see up to three interest rate hikes in 2022. Also, do not forget about the general attitude of the SNB to the nat. currency.
However, as they wrote, next week there are two key events, these are the decisions of the Fed and the SNB on their monetary policy, a lot depends on these decisions.

In order to be sure that the currency pair has returned to the trend state, it is necessary to see a breakdown of the important resistance level of 0.9400. By the breakdown of which, we can more confidently say that the bulls gained the upper hand in the currency pair, and the currency pair came out of the side in which it was hanging for months.

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