6) USDCHF

Technical Analysis (MA, RSI, STOCH, MACD, ADX)

• M30 - DOWN
• H1 - UP
• H4 - RANGE
• D1 - DOWN
• W1 - DOWN
• MN - DOWN

• Resistance: 0.9206, 0.9250, 0.9275
• Support: 0.9070, 0.9000, 0.8930

The currency pair was quite multidirectional yesterday, but the main movement was downward. The currency pair fell slightly yesterday, helped by the strengthening of safe-haven currency, in particular the Swiss franc. Moreover, the strengthening was inconsistent with the general phase of the market. As a result of yesterday, the market is still in the Risk-ON phase, the value of the Fear-Greed indicator points to 86.

SNB board member Andrea Mehler said in a recent interview that market concerns such as the real estate market and Evergrande in particular could push up demand for the Swiss franc as a defense.

The end of the 30-day grace period expires today, November 10, 2021, and China Evergrande Group is due to issue coupon payments totaling $ 148.1 million.
Another major Chinese real estate developer, Yango Group, is delaying bond payments, citing liquidity concerns.
The People's Bank of China continues to operate on the open market and injects record amounts of funds into the system through reverse repo transactions in order to stabilize the situation. Yesterday, the Chinese government held a meeting with developers, discussed market risks and taxes, as well as ways out of the current crisis.

Producer Price Index (PPI) was released in the US yesterday. Producer price data provide some hope for easing inflationary pressures after staying stable at 8.6% y / y in October, while benchmark prices also remained unchanged at 6.8%, but they do not guarantee that today's CPI figures will not rise again.
Today's October US CPI is expected to exceed 2008 levels of 5.6%, with we expect to rise to 5.9%, the highest level since 1990, while benchmark prices are expected to rise by 4.3%, which is also a multi-year maximum.
Considering that a number of Fed politicians are louder and louder about the need to raise rates next year, strong data on consumer inflation may well provoke a recovery in US yields, which have dropped quite sharply over the past week. A rise in profitability will lead to an increase in the US dollar.

The latest news that Lael Brainard has gone to the White House for an interview to become the next Fed chairman is giving the Fed pigeons a decent boost at the moment, as Brainard is seen as a calmer candidate than Jerome Powell.
However, there is little she can do now. Brainard cannot stop a cut in the QE program, she cannot cut interest rates, and she cannot even drop the expectation of a rate hike in the face of such a rapid rise in inflation.

This week the Swiss macroeconomic calendar is empty, we follow the data from the USA:
Today:
- US CPI (YoY) (Oct) - USD
- US Core CPI (YoY) (Oct) - USD
- Initial Jobless Claims - USD
Friday:
- JOLTs Job Openings (Sep) - USD

Now the currency pair is trading within a large sideways range between the levels of 0.9206 - 0.8940, where it was previously hovering for months. In terms of the prospects for the movement, as we noted earlier, as long as the currency pair is below the important resistance level of 0.9400, then we will adhere to the idea that the market is sideways. Only after the breakdown of the level of 0.9400 can we say more confidently that the bulls have taken the upper hand in the currency pair.

The fundamental assessment speaks of an exclusively upward movement, here and a potentially tougher Fed than the SNB and the prospects that the Fed will begin a cycle of interest rate hikes in the foreseeable future, as well as the general attitude of the SNB to the national. currency.

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