6) USDCHF

Technical Analysis (MA, RSI, STOCH, MACD, ADX)

• M30 - DOWN
• H1 - RANGE
• H4 - DOWN
• D1 - RANGE
• W1 - DOWN
• MN - DOWN

• Resistance: 0.9206, 0.9250, 0.9275
• Support: 0.9070, 0.9000, 0.8930

The currency pair slid down to the August values ​​on Monday, having touched the support level of 0.9070, and yesterday, having rebounded from it, it partially won back its positions. The US dollar has benefited from expectations of a rate hike amid persistent reiteration by politicians of the temporary high inflation mantra. Investors continue to be cautious ahead of the decisive FOMC meeting. But the markets are usually optimistic about such meetings. Which led to the growth of US stock indices. The general phase of the market is still in the area of ​​extreme greed. According to the results for yesterday, the value of the Fear-Greed indicator at the maximum for this year is 78.

The People's Bank of China continues to add fuel to the fire of greed, which continues to pour increased volumes of liquidity into the banking system.
However, one should not forget that the demand for risky assets may be temporary in nature, as the risks in the market are becoming more and more. COVID remains in the spotlight in China. China's National Health Commission said the latest COVID outbreak was the most common since the Wuhan outbreak. The highly contagious variant of the delta is spreading throughout the country, despite the increasingly aggressive measures that local authorities are taking to try to prevent it. Officials in China say they are committed to maintaining the so-called Covid Zero approach. The energy crisis in the world's second-largest economy is also still here. All of this combined can push the market back into the risk-averse phase.

The US did not publish anything important yesterday. Switzerland published the Swiss consumer price index (CPI) (MoM) for October, although in all other countries such a publication is closely monitored in Switzerland, no one paid attention to this publication. According to the published macro data, we find that inflation in Switzerland in October rose by 0.3%, while last month it was 0.2%.

This week's key event kicks off tonight with the FOMC meeting. Markets usually come to a meeting in terms of optimism. At the very least, US and European equities are near or above all-time highs, and the VIX's volatility index is pretty low. Nevertheless, the foreign exchange market seems to be showing a slight tilt towards the strengthening of the dollar lately. From the meeting itself, we are waiting for the announcement of the start of the reduction of the QE program in November at a rate of -15 billion dollars per month.

Investors will be looking for clues to the likely timing of when the US central bank will raise interest rates. Markets are assessing the prospects for an early tightening of the Fed's policy amid growing concerns about a faster-than-expected rise in inflationary pressures. Consequently, the focus will be on the post-meeting press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which will play a key role in influencing the price action of the US dollar.

In the meantime, you can be guided by data on the US economy, including the release of the ADP report on private employment and the ISM service PMI. The data could give some momentum to the currency pair, although the initial reaction is likely to be muted as traders may prefer to wait for a fresh catalyst from the latest FOMC policy update.

Then we wait:
- Change in the number of employed in the non-agricultural sector from ADP (Oct)
- FOMC Statement
- Decision on the Fed's interest rate
- FOMC press conference
Tomorrow:
- Number of applications for unemployment benefits
Friday:
- Change in the number of people employed in the US nonfarm sector NFP
- US Unemployment Rate (Oct)

In terms of the prospects for the movement, as we noted earlier, as long as the currency pair is below the important resistance level of 0.9400, then we will adhere to the idea that the market is sideways. Now the currency pair is inside the sideways range between the levels 0.9206 - 0.8940, where it previously hung for months. It is very possible that today the currency pair will receive the minimum necessary impulse to get out of this sideways trend.
Only after the breakdown of the level of 0.9400 can we say more confidently that the bulls have taken the upper hand in the currency pair.
The fundamental assessment speaks of an exclusively upward movement, but before the breakdown of the 0.9400 confirmation level, the currency pair is technically in a sideways trend.

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