6) USDCHF

Technical Analysis (MA, RSI, STOCH, MACD, ADX)

• M30 - DOWN
• H1 - DOWN
• H4 - DOWN
• D1 - DOWN
• W1 - DOWN
• MN - UP

• Resistance: 0.9350, 0.9400, 0.9450
• Support: 0.9206, 0.9125, 0.9070

Yesterday the currency pair witnessed a movement to close long positions in the dollar and fell about 70 pips down, thereby reaching the September level. The momentum was driven solely by the weakness of the US dollar, which weakened due to the typical buy-on-rumor, sell-on-fact response following the release of US consumer inflation data. The general consumer price index in the US rose 0.4% in September, raising the annual rate to 5.4%, which is slightly above market expectations. Investors, however, seem to agree with the Fed's narrative about temporary inflation. This manifested itself in a further decline in the yield on long-term US Treasuries and put pressure on the US dollar.
Today the currency pair continues to fall, the reason for the increased demand for the franc is the widespread weakening of the USD and the result is a transfer of funds from one safe-haven currency to another. Against this background, CHF, gold and BTC began to grow. All this despite the fact that the value of the Fear-Greed indicator has not changed for three days and is 32.

New fears have not been added to the market, the old fears have not gone away, worries about China's financial situation, exacerbated by the energy crisis. Debt problems and potential defaults by major developers, combined with widespread power outages amid coal shortages, have cast doubt on the economic future of the world's second largest economy. Recall, according to Bank of America, about 40% of construction companies in China are under the threat of bankruptcy.

Switzerland did not publish anything important yesterday, but the US did publish the minutes of the FOMC and CPI meeting.
In yesterday's minutes of the Fed meeting, it was clearly seen that the majority of officials agreed to start scrapping the QE program in November-December. To complete the purchase of assets under the QE program by mid-2022. The volume of the weekly reduction is $ 15 billion.

Next, today we are monitoring the weekly level of initial claims for unemployment benefits, as well as a rather important producer price index (PPI) (MoM) for September, we recall that PPI is viewed as a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

In terms of the prospects for the movement, as we noted earlier, as long as the currency pair is below the important resistance level of 0.9400, we will adhere to the idea that the market is sideways. Only after the breakdown of the level of 0.9400 can we say more confidently that the bulls have taken the upper hand in the currency pair. Now the currency pair is near the level of 0.9206, earlier the currency pair regularly and for a very long time hovered sideways between the levels 0.9206 - 0.8940.
The fundamental assessment speaks of an exclusively upward movement, but before the breakdown of the 0.9400 confirmation level, the currency pair is technically in a sideways trend.

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