6) USDCHF

Technical Analysis (MA, RSI, STOCH, MACD, ADX)

• M30 - DOWN
• H1 - DOWN
• H4 - DOWN
• D1 - RANGE
• W1 - UP
• MN - UP

• Resistance: 0.9350, 0.9400, 0.9450
• Support: 0.9250, 0.9206, 0.9125

The currency pair has been hanging in place for the last four trading days. Yesterday, this hang-up continued. Although fear has increased in the market, as has already become common, from China. Against this background, the value of the Fear-Greed indicator decreased again to the level of 32.

Investors noted that developer Evergrande missed the third consecutive round of bond payments in three weeks, which increased the risk of repeated default.
In addition, the Chinese developer Modern Land announced the postponement of payments for three months, and the construction company Sinic Holdings warned of a possible default next week. Also, do not forget about the situation with another Chinese giant Fantasia Holdings Group. According to Bank of America, approximately 40% of Chinese construction companies that borrowed from foreign investors are at risk of bankruptcy. The fact is that in recent years, Chinese developers have not focused on demand, but have been more engaged in speculation. It is clear that in the event of their default, the whole world will feel the negative consequences, of course not as harshly as in 2008 with Lehman Brothers.
Plus the story of the leaked government papers in which the Chinese government notified local authorities of the need to prepare for a large-scale outbreak of COVID-19.

Meanwhile, concerns about faster-than-expected inflation growth and a slowdown in the global economic recovery are reinforcing concerns about stagflation. All together, it led to a widespread increase in the demand for safe-heaven currencies.

Although the US dollar was under pressure due to the disappointing NFP report on Friday, it still continues to receive support, amid investors' expectations of the early tapering of the QE program. Along with this, following the dot-plot report, the market is already laying down an increase in the Fed's interest rate in 2022. This expectation is also supported by concerns that the recent rise in crude oil prices will cause an additional acceleration of inflation.

Accordingly, now, before receiving new macro data or another currency intervention from the SNB, the pair is doomed to hang out in the side.
Further, the macroeconomic calendar for Switzerland remains empty, all news is exclusively for the United States.
We are monitoring very important data tomorrow:
- US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
- FOMC Meeting Minutes

In terms of the prospects for movement, as we noted earlier, as long as the pair is below the important resistance level of 0.9400, then we will stick to the idea that the market is sideways. Only by the breakdown of the 0.9400 level can we say more confidently that the bulls have taken over the pair.
The fundamental assessment indicates an exclusively upward movement, but before the breakdown of the confirmation level of 0.9400, the pair is technically in the sideways.

#fx #trading #forex #analyze #MT4 #MT5 #USDCHF