6) USDCHF

Technical Analysis (MA, RSI, STOCH, MACD, ADX)

• M30 - DOWN
• H1 - RANGE
• H4 - DOWN
• D1 - DOWN
• W1 - RANGE
• MN - UP

• Resistance: 0.9350, 0.9400, 0.9450
• Support: 0.9250, 0.9206, 0.9125

The currency pair was practically not traded this week, the movement was very limited. The currency pair traded in a range of 85 pips, while closing at -20 pips. At the end of the week, the market is still in a state of fear, the value of the Fear-Greed indicator points to 34.
The reason for this trade is that both currencies are defensive and have shown a strong correlation this week. Those. the emerging demand for protection led investors to demand for both currencies, and vice versa.

The risks that drove the market into extreme fear last week were slightly sidelined this week. The Russian leadership announced that it is ready to help the EU overcome the energy crisis. In the US Senate, Chuck Schumer announced an agreement to extend the national debt ceiling until early December.
However, the risks associated with the Chinese giants Evergrande and Fantasia, although they faded into the background, still persist, as well as the energy crisis in China.

In terms of news, Switzerland did not publish anything.
There was a lot of news in the US: the publication of a negative trade balance, which showed a deficit of $ 73.3 billion. This was followed by very positive reports from APD and on the number of applications for unemployment benefits. However, the long-awaited US nonfarm payrolls report was disappointing, showing employment growth of 194,000, well below market expectations for 488,000 new jobs. The dollar fell immediately after the publication, but then seemed to recover as the market suggested that these numbers would not change the Fed's plans to reduce bond purchases in the coming months. Since although these numbers are not very strong, do not forget about the decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.8% from 5.2% in August, as well as the growth of the average hourly wage by 4.6% on an annualized basis. Plus inflation, since the Fed is already really worried about the growth of inflation against the background of widespread growth in energy prices.

It is not known whether the reduction of the QE program will be announced in November, but it does not matter anymore, since the fact that the Fed will begin to cut it by the end of the year is a fact.

Next week, the macroeconomic calendar for Switzerland remains empty, all news is exclusively for the United States.
Wednesday:
- US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
- FOMC Meeting Minutes - USD
Thursday:
- Initial Jobless Claims - USD
Friday:
- US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

In terms of the prospects for the movement, as we noted earlier, as long as the currency pair is below the important resistance level of 0.9400, then we will adhere to the idea that the market is sideways. Only after the breakdown of the level of 0.9400 can we say more confidently that the bulls have taken the upper hand in the currency pair.
The fundamental assessment speaks of an exclusively upward movement, but before the breakdown of the 0.9400 confirmation level, the currency pair is technically in a sideways trend.

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