6) USDCHF

Technical Analysis (MA, RSI, STOCH, MACD, ADX)

• M30 - DOWN
• H1 - DOWN
• H4 - DOWN
• D1 - RANGE
• W1 - UP
• MN - UP

• Resistance: 0.9206, 0.9240, 0.9350
• Support: 0.9125, 0.9000, 0.8980

As expected, the currency pair returned to the sideways range between the levels 0.9206 - 0.8940. The currency pair fell below the resistance level of 0.9206 amid increased demand for safe-haven currency in anticipation of the release of inflation data, and of course, due to the continuing decline in the US stock market. The market at the end of yesterday is still in a state of fear. The value of the Fear-Greed indicator has decreased and points to 31. The demand for protection continues to grow due to the approaching date of the quarterly expiration, and the proximity of the FOMC meeting is also affecting investors.

Switzerland yesterday released Swiss Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM for August: 0.7%; Previous: 0.5%. PPI is usually used as a leading indicator of consumer inflation, if prices from producers rise, it means that part of these costs will be borne by buyers, which leads to an increase in consumer inflation.
The US also released highly anticipated consumer inflation reports for August. Headline inflation in August fell slightly from 5.4% to 5.3% on an annualized basis, in line with market expectations. However, core inflation fell more significantly: by 4% compared to 4.3% a month earlier. While the data is still very high, the very fact that these numbers have not rallied adds to market confidence in the Fed's narrative of temporary and passing inflation. Accordingly, the idea that the rise in inflation will force the Fed to start tightening monetary policy more quickly remained an idea. Lower inflation means less pressure on the Fed to cut QE, which makes the dollar weaker. The monthly volume of the program is US $ 120 billion.

Tomorrow we follow:
- Core Retail Sales USA (MoM) (Aug) - USD
- Initial Jobless Claims - USD

The risk of high volatility still persists.

Fundamental background, unchanged and still points to the sideways 0.9206 - 0.8940. However, the medium and long term direction is more bullish than bearish. We are still of the opinion that the SNB will not be able to in the near future, and, in principle, it will not need to carry out direct foreign exchange interventions in order to reduce the price of the CHF. So the movement of the currency pair in the near future will be influenced exclusively by the fundamental background.

#fx #trading #forex #analyze #MT4 #MT5 #USDCHF