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Ukraine war hits world poorest: 'Armed insurgency may be on the way' | Abroad | DR Exports from the world's grain chamber have almost come to a standstill, and millions risk ending up in a famine disaster. If the war in Ukraine continues, it will throw another 47 million people into critical starvation. This is the assessment from. , is far from important only in the countries close to the war, it also has consequences for the world's poorest on a scale that for most people is probably hard to imagine. war with each other. A dangerous cocktail that will undoubtedly lead to conflict and rebellion in the poorest nations in the world, says Anne Poulsen, director of the food agency's Nordic office. - We are in a situation that can result in a serious destabilization in large parts of the world. may be forced to resign, and armed insurgency may be on the way. There is no doubt that it will lead to major conflicts that people can not afford food, she says. Henning Otte Hansen, who is a senior adviser at the Department of Food and Resource Economics at the University of Copenhagen, is also in no doubt. The war will result in more hunger, trouble and social unrest and perhaps more emigration in the world's poorest countries. Maybe we will see many people take to the streets and protest, as a kind of panic reaction, he says. But why is the war in Ukraine so important that the people of countries like Yemen, Afghanistan and the African continent risk even more famine and disaster? Here we give you four reasons: 1Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24 and until now, the price of has risen more than 12 percent. From April last year to April this year, the price has risen by more than 28 percent overall. Figures from FAO show that. Otte Hansen.- Before the war we had a long period of poor harvests, small grain stocks and problems with infrastructure due to the corona pandemic. This resulted in price increases. Now we see that Ukraine can no longer export to the extent that the country usually does, and it has done something about the price, he says. And there is no doubt: The price increases we are seeing now are hitting the whole world, but they are hitting very hard among the poorest, says Henning Otte Hansen.- In rich countries like Denmark, we spend only a small proportion of ours on. In poor countries, people are far more dependent on prices because a much larger share of the private sector is spent on food. Here, an increase in food prices of just one or two percent can mean the difference between life and death, states the food agency. See more about the consumption of food in different countries in the graph here: And according to Anne Poulsen, the price increases have meant, among other things, that it costs's Food Program, World Food Program, over half a billion Danish kroner extra per month to saturate the same number of stomachs, they have done so far, and the development looks bleak, she says.- Continuing the war in Ukraine with undiminished strength, we expect to see a 17 percent increase in the number of critically hungry.Worst it will probably affect the inhabitants of the countries of Africa southern Sahara.2Ukraine is described as the grain chamber of the world, and it is not without reason that the Ukrainian flag represents a blue sky over a wheat field.For the country is, as Henning Otte Hansen describes it, "a core player of the agricultural commodity market ", and according to the Food Agency, Ukraine normally produces food for 400 million people. higher price. It is a significant problem, and it will be more expensive for everyone, says Henning Otte Hansen. About a third of the wheat harvest from 2021 has not left Ukraine and due to the war can not be shipped via to the major customers, which are the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. with Russia, Ukraine accounts for 30 percent of that of wheat, two of Denmark's grain wholesalers inform, and in 2021, the world's largest ears of wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seeds and oil were either Ukraine and Russia alone or both countries combined. one of the most cultivated in the world and the staple food of a third of the world. , from Ukraine. There are now other avenues to consider if wheat is to continue to be included in food packages. © Ritzau ScanpixThese countries buy the most wheat from UkraineUkraine is one of the world's largest exporters of wheat - and it is particularly poor countries in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia that are dependent of exports.Here are the countries that in 2020 purchased the most tonnes of wheat from Ukraine aloneEgypt: 3.08 million tonnesIndonesia: 2.72 million tonnesBangladesh: 1.51 million tonnesPakistan: 1.24 million tonnesTurkey: 1 million tonnesTunesia: 0.98 millionMorocco: 0.95 millionYemen: 0.71 millionSource: UN Food Agency3Ukraine is the world's largest ear of sunflower oil and accounts for more than 70 percent of it. The world's second largest ear is Russia. At the same time, Russia and Ukraine account for 17 percent of that of corn. Both are an important part of the basic diet and source of extra calories in many low-income countries. But both in terms of production and of these goods there are challenges, says Henning Otte Hansen.- It gives a marked decline in the entire market for plant-based oil that the two countries can not export to the same degree as before. Therefore, we are seeing some significant price increases of almost 50 percent. As long as Ukraine's sunflower oil is virtually shut down, there will be a shortage of cooking oil on the world market. There will probably be high prices in that area for a long time. And the price increases especially affect those who can not produce food themselves, says the senior researcher. - A farmer in Kenya who is completely or partially self-sufficient will not be affected by the price increases in the same manner. It is those who do not produce anything and who, for example, live in the cities who are hardest hit, says Henning Otte Hansen.4 It is not only from Ukraine and Russia that are under pressure. Ships in many places are delayed because they are currently being detained while being investigated for the presence of goods on board that are subject to. to delay the process tremendously, and it hits world trade in general, writes .Russian warships bomb and continue to block Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea, and it has enormous implications for food prices , and the current export situation could have serious consequences for food security in poor countries. This is what the director general of the World Trade Organization, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, said. - Smaller supplies and higher prices mean that the world's poor can be forced to do without. The African continent is among the largest importers of wheat. Just over 85 percent of the continent's consumption comes from outside. Therefore, it is also clearly felt when there are problems with getting the wheat out of Ukraine and Russia, explains Søren Bendixen,'s Africa correspondent. - All the wheat that the Ukrainians should have shipped away, now creates hunger and dissatisfaction especially in Africa . Russian bombs and continues to block Ukrainian ports in, and this has enormous significance for food prices. He believes, like Henning Otte Hansen and Anne Poulsen, that the current situation can mean increasing unrest in the world's poorest countries. Søren Bendixen even talks about revolutions in Africa, because the situation is already so pressured. - Many countries have quite a bit to resist. Huge backlog after corona, high,, falling in value against the dollar, large, large and so food prices that completely out of control. It's an almost perfect recipe for unrest, he says.