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A unanimous uplift of Russian elites that followed the appointment of Donald Trump as the President of the United States has given way to no weaker frustration. The Kremlin's hope of reviving a fully functional dialogue, lifting sanction regime, and acknowledging of the annexation of Crimea have not only played out as expected but are seen as meaningless now that Russia's interference with the USA's president election has been revealed. Kremlin attempts to come off as clean and distance itself from the inspection into the facts of the Internet Investigation Agency's interference headed by a Kremlin circle businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, places the blame with Russian intelligence agencies.

“Based on the results of conducted investigation, the government makes a conclusion that two citizens identified by the police and public prosecution office are the employees of the GRU, Russia's military intelligence service. This wasn't just a criminal operation. Most probably, it was approved beyond the GRU, at the highest level of Russian government,” stated the UK's Prime Minister Theresa May.

Nick Haley comments on Washington's opinion of London-Moscow conflict: “Whenever our friends in the UK are facing challenges the US will be there to support. Always.”

After the incident in Salisbury, the US administration has announced about introducing yet another soon-to-be-passed sanction package that was dubbed “draconian” because of its unprecedented character. David Tessler, an official representative of the State Department, has maintained the claim about consistent and decisive intention to punish Moscow in his interview with Russian BBC:

“The sanctions are working. They inflict damage on Russian government and on all those who help Russia to carry on its subversive actions. We want to get our message across and make them see that you cannot deliver this kind of actions without being punished. The sanctions will not be lifted until we see their absolute change of heart.” A tension in Russian relationship is evidenced by the fact that Russia is listed among Iran and Isis on the US Department of State website.

Despite Kremlin being able to hold the facade of composure, the nervousness in the way that Russian politicians carry themselves in public is quite visible. It's more and more difficult for them to conceal the fact that the sanctions regime and international isolation are affecting the level of life of an average Russian citizen.

Despite the nonchalance of Russian elites, they understand that further confrontation with the US and the reinforcement of sanctions will inevitably lead Russia either to the change of government in place or economic and financial collapse which will eventually lead to territory disintegration.

Northern Caucasus inhabited mostly by Sunni Muslims is one of the most troubled Russian regions with its age-old tradition of separatism and disobedience to Russian imperial dictatorship runs the risk of being the first one to go. The respect for local Russian elites dependent exclusively on federal budget and secured by unjustifiably bloated workforce of police and army garrisons, will most probably be not enough to hold this region under Russian jurisdiction. The threat is more real considering the fact that the region has suffered through two wars with significant collateral damage in the past 20 years which still sometimes relapse in the form of unsubdued opposition by one part of radicalized Muslims and the outflow of another part to Syria and Iraq.

In Dagestan, we can observe that the measures taken by authorities, such as the closing of mosques, filing the information on the members of Muslim congregation, kidnapping young men suspected in dealings with radicalized Muslims are only increasing irreconcilability of the situation and facilitate recruitment of new soldiers into not yet destroyed Islamic groups. It all happens at the backdrop of unprecedented level of corruption of the local government which stays out of regular citizens' reach behind the walls of their expensive multi-storey mansions, undisturbed and protected by multi-thousand local and seconded police as well as military units.

In Chechnya, which suffered most of Russian army blows, the bid is on the current president Ramzan Kadyrov's clan whose unquestionable loyalty lies with Putin only. And even though Kadyrov has successfully shown Putin that he has the situation in the Republic under control by holding a series of public campaigns in favour of Putin, the situation does not seem that much resilient. This is evidenced by the fact that the most numerous ethnic group in post-Soviet territory which wages war upon Syria and Iraq are Chechen immigrants. The army of Jihadists which opposes Bashar Assad's rule has several units that entirely or at least partially consist of Chechen Mujahedeen.

One of them called Ajnad al-Kavkaz headed by a veteran of the second Russian-Chechen War, a legendary Abdul Haleem Sheshani, almost entirely is comprised of Chechen immigrants.

According to different sources, in August 2016 from 200 to 2050 Chechen refugees have set camp grounds on Polish-Belarusian border. Many of them have motivated the refusal to go back by a repressive policy led by Chechen authorities.

Even though Kadyrov has managed to defeat radical Muslims by using punitive action and Federal center support, he's still losing, failing to find a place in Chechen youth's hearts and minds, so the conflict is far from being over. Chechen historian and political analyst Mairbec Vachagaev takes quite a clear perspective upon why Chechen youth is joining radical Muslims or helping Ukrainian army to fight pro-Russian rebels: “Those Chechens who go from Europe to fight Syria are those who fight the war on Ukraine's side in Donbass claim that they want to prove that unlike their parents they have taken a stand against Russia. They want to make a strike at Kremlin and Moscow politics. Chechen youth cannot forgive Russians the two wars in their land.” The situation in Ingushetia is not much different from that in Dagestan. The same corrupted government, the same extrajudicial executions of young men, the same war on religious grounds, the same high social unrest which is fueled by unresolved issue over Prigorodny District that became integrated with Northern Ossetia after the deportation of the Vainakh in 1944.

What is going to happen to Caucasian region should the international isolation be reinforced, is not hard to imagine. Obviously, this would mean downscaling of pro-Kremlin elites' funding in Northern Caucasus and, consequently, the lost of their authority and influence. In case the supremacy and dictatorship of Federal Security Department, the ruling party of Russia, is lost and especially in case of its complete overthrow, it is highly unlikely that anyone who replaces Vladimir Putin would let Ramzan Kadyrov what was allowed during Putin's rule. It's unlikely that his unprecedentedly expensive whims such as Ahmed Tower will be paid for from Russian budget. It is unlikely that Caucasian khans would be allowed such liberties that Moscow affords them now.

Consequently, this would lead to the decrease in mutually positive attitudes. Patriotic babble from Grozny, Makhachkala, Magas, and Nalchik will be heard more and more indistinctly. The local police will likely turn into a gang without any well-defined political or other principles and preferences.

Being thirsty for a revenge, Northern Caucausian radical Muslims expelled to Syria and Iraq are likely to come back to their motherland bringing back a heavy load of hatred accumulated during the years of Bashar Assad's rule supported by Russia.